Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Drought Events and Their Effects on Vegetation: A Case Study in Southern Tibet, China

Grassland cover dynamics and their relationship with climatic factors in China from 1982 to 2021

China possesses abundant grassland resources, making it imperative to comprehend the influence of climate change on Chinese grassland ecosystems. Nonetheless, the impact pathways and lag effects of climate factors on various grassland types in this region at multiple temporal scales are still to be investigated in long-term sequences. This study investigated the dynamics of grassland FVC (fractional vegetation cover), temperature, precipitation, and drought from 1982 to 2021 using trend analysis, multiple linear regression, path analysis, and correlation analysis and explored the dominant, direct, indirect, and time-lag effects of climate factors on different grassland types at multiple time scales. Precipitation-grassland correlation pathways dominated the annual-scale grassland FVC. The correlation path of temperature to grassland FVC and the direct path of temperature dominated spring grassland FVC. The correlation path of drought to grassland FVC and the direct path of drought dominated summer grassland FVC. The correlation path of temperature to grassland FVC and the direct path of temperature dominated autumn and winter grassland FVC. The effects of temperature and precipitation on alpine and subalpine meadows, desert grasslands, and alpine and subalpine plains grasslands had a 1-month lag. The response to drought exhibited a 1-month lag in desert grasslands, a 2-month lag in alpine and subalpine meadows, plains grasslands, meadows, and alpine and subalpine plains grasslands, and a 3-month lag in sloped grasslands. This study seeks to provide a scientific reference to reveal the impact of climate change on grasslands and to protect grassland ecosystems.

Response of vegetation dynamic change to multi-scale drought stress in the high-latitude Nenjiang River basin in China

Vegetation is an integral part of terrestrial ecosystem and plays an important role in responding to climate change, with its dynamic characteristics reflecting the ecological environmental quality. Recently, the continually increasing frequency and intensity of droughts has greatly changed how vegetation growth and development respond to drought. In this study, using normalized difference vegetation index and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), we studied the response characteristics of vegetation dynamics to multi-scale drought stress (SPEI-1, SPEI-3, and SPEI-12) in the Nenjiang River basin (NRB) via Pearson correlation analysis, along with further exploration of the vegetation stability under drought. The results showed that the same period effect of drought on vegetation growth in NRB mainly occurs during the early and middle stages of vegetation growth. Furthermore, the proportion of significant positive correlation between them is 15.3%–43.3%, mainly in the central and southern parts of the basin. The lagged period effect of drought on vegetation growth mainly occurred during autumn in the southeast and middle of the basin, with a significant positive correlation of 20.8%. Under drought stress, the forest vegetation stability in NRB was the highest, with the resilience of wetland and grassland vegetation being the best and worst, respectively. Our study results will not only deepen our understanding of the dynamic vegetation changes in the high-latitude semi-arid basin under global climate change, but also provide a scientific basis for the management and water resources allocation of “agriculture-wetland-forest” complex ecosystem in the future.

Meteorological Drought Analysis and Return Periods over North and West Africa and Linkage with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Droughts are one of the world’s most destructive natural disasters. In large regions of Africa, droughts can have strong environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Understanding the mechanism that drives drought and predicting its variability is important for enhancing early warning and disaster risk management. Taking North and West Africa as the study area, this study adopted multi-source data and various statistical analysis methods, such as the joint probability density function (JPDF), to study the meteorological drought and return years across a long term (1982–2018). The standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used to evaluate the large-scale spatiotemporal drought characteristics at 1–12-month timescales. The intensity, severity, and duration of drought in the study area were evaluated using SPI–12. At the same time, the JPDF was used to determine the return year and identify the intensity, duration, and severity of drought. The Mann-Kendall method was used to test the trend of SPI and annual precipitation at 1–12-month timescales. The pattern of drought occurrence and its correlation with climate factors were analyzed. The results showed that the drought magnitude (DM) of the study area was the highest in 2008–2010, 2000–2003, and 1984–1987, with the values of 5.361, 2.792, and 2.187, respectively, and the drought lasting for three years in each of the three periods. At the same time, the lowest DM was found in 1997–1998, 1993–1994, and 1991–1992, with DM values of 0.113, 0.658, and 0.727, respectively, with a duration of one year each time. It was confirmed that the probability of return to drought was higher when the duration of drought was shorter, with short droughts occurring more regularly, but not all severe droughts hit after longer time intervals. Beyond this, we discovered a direct connection between drought and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) over Morocco, Algeria, and the sub-Saharan countries, and some slight indications that drought is linked with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) over Guinea, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Mali, Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria.