Studying the Feasibility of Assimilating Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope Imagery into the SAFY Crop Model to Predict Within-Field Wheat Yield

Bayesian Posterior-Based Winter Wheat Yield Estimation at the Field Scale through Assimilation of Sentinel-2 Data into WOFOST Model

Accurate and timely regional crop yield information, particularly field-level yield estimation, is essential for commodity traders and producers in planning production, growing, harvesting, and other interconnected marketing activities. In this study, we propose a novel data assimilation framework. Firstly, we construct the likelihood constraints for a process-based crop growth model based on the previous year’s statistical yield and the current year’s field observations. Then, we infer the posterior sets of model-simulated time-series LAI and the final yield of winter wheat with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for each meteorological data grid of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (v5ERA5). Finally, we estimate the winter wheat yield at the spatial resolution of 10 m by combining Sentinel-2 LAI and the WOFOST model in Hengshui, the prefecture-level city of Hebei province of China. The results show that the proposed framework can estimate the winter wheat yield with a coefficient of determination R2 equal to 0.29 and mean absolute percentage error MAPE equal to 7.20% compared to within-field measurements. However, the agricultural stress that crop growth models cannot quantitatively simulate, such as lodging, can greatly reduce the accuracy of yield estimates.

Nitrogen Estimation for Wheat Using UAV-Based and Satellite Multispectral Imagery, Topographic Metrics, Leaf Area Index, Plant Height, Soil Moisture, and Machine Learning Methods

To improve productivity, reduce production costs, and minimize the environmental impacts of agriculture, the advancement of nitrogen (N) fertilizer management methods is needed. The objective of this study is to compare the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) multispectral imagery and PlanetScope satellite imagery, together with plant height, leaf area index (LAI), soil moisture, and field topographic metrics to predict the canopy nitrogen weight (g/m2) of wheat fields in southwestern Ontario, Canada. Random Forests (RF) and support vector regression (SVR) models, applied to either UAV imagery or satellite imagery, were evaluated for canopy nitrogen weight prediction. The top-performing UAV imagery-based validation model used SVR with seven selected variables (plant height, LAI, four VIs, and the NIR band) with an R2 of 0.80 and an RMSE of 2.62 g/m2. The best satellite imagery-based validation model was RF, which used 17 variables including plant height, LAI, the four PlanetScope bands, and 11 VIs, resulting in an R2 of 0.92 and an RMSE of 1.75 g/m2. The model information can be used to improve field nitrogen predictions for the effective management of N fertilizer.