A Machine Learning Approach for Estimating the Trophic State of Urban Waters Based on Remote Sensing and Environmental Factors

Knowledge-guided mixture density network for chlorophyll-a retrieval and associated pixel-by-pixel uncertainty assessment in optically variable inland waters

Machine learning has been increasingly used to retrieve chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) in optically variable waters. However, without the guidance of physical principles or expert knowledge, machine learning may produce biased mapping relationships, or waste considerable time searching for physically infeasible hyperparameter domains. In addition, most Chl-a retrieval models cannot evaluate retrieval uncertainty when ground observations are not available, and the retrieval uncertainty is crucial for understanding the model limitations and evaluating the reliability of retrieval results. In this study, we developed a novel knowledge-guided mixture density network to retrieve Chl-a in optically variable inland waters based on Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI) imagery. The proposed method embedded prior knowledge derived from spectral shape classification into the mixture density network. Compared to another deterministic model, the knowledge-guided mixture density network outputted the conditional distribution of Chl-a given an input spectrum, enabling us to estimate the optimal retrieval and the associated uncertainty. The proposed method showed favorable correspondence with the field Chl-a, with root mean square error (RMSE) of 6.56 μg/L, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 43.64 %. Calibrated against Sentinel-3 OLCI spectrum, the proposed method also performed well when applied to field spectrum (RMSE = 4.58 μg/L, MAPE = 72.70 %), suggesting its effectiveness and good generalization. The proposed method provided the standard deviation of each estimated Chl-a, which enabled us to inspect the reliability of the estimated results and understand the model limitations. Overall, the proposed method improved the Chl-a retrieval in terms of model accuracy and uncertainty evaluation, providing a more comprehensive Chl-a observation of inland waters.

Monitoring trophic status using in situ data and Sentinel-2 MSI algorithm: lesson from Lake Malombe, Malawi

With excessive nutrient enrichment exacerbated by anthropogenic drivers, many standing water bodies are changing from oligotrophic to mesotrophic, eutrophic, and finally hypertrophic-negatively affecting ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and human populations. Efforts have been devoted to developing novel algorithms for estimating chlorophyll-a (chl-a), cyno-blooms, and floating vegetation. However, to this date, little research has focused on freshwater lakes in the data-scarce Sub-Saharan African countries such as Malawi. We, therefore, estimated the trophic status of Lake Malombe in Malawi-a lake likely to be affected by eutrophication and algal bloom-emerging threats to freshwater ecosystem functioning globally-especially with the onset of climatic and anthropogenic drivers. We integrated in situ data with high-resolution Sentinel-2 Multispectral Imagery Analysis (MSI). We independently assessed the remote sensing technique using in situ data and tested the model at multiple stages. The scatter plot showed that most points were in the 95% confidence interval. The validation results between the measured in situ chl-a concentrations and the Sentinel-2 MSI-based chl-a retrieval had a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.88 µg/L. The chl-a concentrations retrieved from MSI images were consistent with in situ data, indicating that the normalized difference chlorophyll index (NDCI) algorithm estimated chl-a concentrations in Lake Malombe with acceptable accuracy. Dissolved oxygen (DO), sulfate (SO₄^2-), nitrite [Formula: see text], soluble reactive phosphorous [Formula: see text]), total dissolved solids (TDS), and chl-a, except for temperatures from the hot-dry-season, cold-dry-windy-season, and rainy-season, were significantly different (P < 0.05). The Sentinel-2 MSI imagery analysis also depicted similar results, with high chl-a concentration reported in March (rainy season) and October (hot-dry season) and the lowest from May to August (cold-dry-windy season). On the contrary, the ANOVA results for water quality parameters from all five points had P > 0.05. The correlation matrix showed coefficients of (0.798 < r < 0.930, n = 30, P < 0.005), suggesting that Lake Malombe is homogenous. Our results demonstrate that integrating remote sensing based on MSI imagery and in situ data to estimate chl-a can provide an effective tool for monitoring eutrophication in small, medium, and large standing waterbodies-crucial information required to respond to global ecological and climatic dynamics.

Estimation of Chlorophyll-a Concentrations in Small Water Bodies: Comparison of Fused Gaofen-6 and Sentinel-2 Sensors

Chlorophyll-a concentrations in water bodies are one of the most important environmental evaluation indicators in monitoring the water environment. Small water bodies include headwater streams, springs, ditches, flushes, small lakes, and ponds, which represent important freshwater resources. However, the relatively narrow and fragmented nature of small water bodies makes it difficult to monitor chlorophyll-a via medium-resolution remote sensing. In the present study, we first fused Gaofen-6 (a new Chinese satellite) images to obtain 2 m resolution images with 8 bands, which was approved as a good data source for Chlorophyll-a monitoring in small water bodies as Sentinel-2. Further, we compared five semi-empirical and four machine learning models to estimate chlorophyll-a concentrations via simulated reflectance using fused Gaofen-6 and Sentinel-2 spectral response function. The results showed that the extreme gradient boosting tree model (one of the machine learning models) is the most accurate. The mean relative error (MRE) was 9.03%, and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 4.5 mg/m3 for the Sentinel-2 sensor, while for the fused Gaofen-6 image, MRE was 6.73%, and RMSE was 3.26 mg/m3. Thus, both fused Gaofen-6 and Sentinel-2 could estimate the chlorophyll-a concentrations in small water bodies. Since the fused Gaofen-6 exhibited a higher spatial resolution and Sentinel-2 exhibited a higher temporal resolution.