Land Use Scenario Simulation and Ecosystem Service Management for Different Regional Development Models of the Beibu Gulf Area, China

Spatiotemporal variation pattern of production-living-ecological space and land use ecological risk and their relationship analysis: a case study of Changzhi City, China

With the rapid development of mining, more and more cities faced the trade-off between ecological protection and large-scale mining. Assessment of production-living-ecological space transformation and land use ecological risk can provide a scientific guidance for land use management and risk control. This paper focused on a resource-based city, Changzhi City in China, using RRM model and elasticity coefficient to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the production-living-ecological space evolution and land use ecological risk change, and measured the responsiveness of land use ecological risk to space transformation. The results showed the following: (1) From 2000 to 2020, production, living, and ecological spaces showed increased, decreased, and stable conditions, respectively. (2) The level of ecological risk showed an increasing trend from 2000 to 2020; the growth rate in the last 10 years was significantly lower than that in the first 10 years which was due to policy induced; the changes of ecological risk levels in each district and county were insignificant. (3) The elasticity coefficient from 2010 to 2020 became significantly less than that of the previous 10 years. The impact of the production-living-ecological space transformation on ecological risk was significantly reduced and the influencing factors of land use ecological risk were more diversified. However, Luzhou District still had a high level of land use ecological risk, which needs to pay more attention and be taken seriously. Our study provided guidance for ecological protection, rational land use, and territory development plan in Changzhi City, and also can be used as a reference in other resource-based cities.

Compound Optimization of Territorial Spatial Structure and Layout at the City Scale from "Production-Living-Ecological" Perspectives

Land-use optimization, as an important resource-allocation method, can be defined as the process of allocating various activities to different geographic units. How to manage and control land expansion has become an urgent issue, leading a series of problems such as environmental damage and a sharp decrease in cultivated land, leading to unfavorable phenomena such as excessive urban expansion, occupation of cultivated land and important ecological spaces, and overheating of real estate development. Based on the land-use data of Wuhan city in 2020, a coupling MOP (Multi-Objective Programming) and FLUS (Future Land-Use Simulation) model was used to examine the national spatial structure and the optimization of the spatial layout. Our results showed that (1) in terms of quantitative optimal allocation, the ecological space and urban space increased, while the agricultural space greatly decreased under the three development scenarios. (2) In the simulation of spatial layout, the urban space mainly expanded vertically in the north-south direction. In the ecological space scenario, the ecological space occupied part of the cultivated land in the northeast of the city, resulting in a high degree of landscape fragmentation, which is not conducive to large-scale agricultural management. However, under optimal comprehensive benefit, part of the fragmented ecological space in the western part of Wuhan was transformed into an agricultural space. (3) A combination of the MOP and FLUS models could effectively determine land-use structure and address spatial layout optimization problems and can project space in the future urban resource configuration mode. This finding can provide a reference for the optimization of the spatial structure and layout of similar cities.

Territorial Pattern Evolution and Its Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Evaluation in the Coastal Area of Beibu Gulf, China

Changes in the territorial pattern of the Beibu Gulf, an environmentally sensitive and ecologically fragile area in China, will directly or indirectly affect the regional ecological environment, while profoundly influencing economic development and human well-being. Therefore, it is significant to understand the ecological response in the process of territorial space changes in the Beibu Gulf to promote the coordination between sea and land and sustainable regional development. This paper used remote sensing image interpretation to generate land-use maps in 2000, 2010 and 2020, and then analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of the territorial pattern of the Beibu Gulf from 2000 to 2020. Finally, this paper proposed a comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation system and explored the spatial functional zones of the coastal areas of the Beibu Gulf. The results showed that the demand for urban development and ecological protection between 2000 and 2020 increased built-up land and forestland by 386.71% and 25.56%, respectively, and reduced farmland by 28.33%. There was significant spatial heterogeneity in various land-use types. Where forestland is mainly distributed in the west, farmland is mainly distributed in the east, wetland is mainly distributed in the south, and orchards are spread throughout the whole area. The evaluation results of land resources, water resources and ecological conditions in the Beibu Gulf area showed that its comprehensive carrying capacity was high in the south and low in the north, and high in the west and low in the east. On this basis, this paper considered the actual situation of natural resources, ecological conditions, socio-economic development, protection and development in coastal areas; divided the study area into four categories: developed areas, priority development areas, ecological reserve areas and coastal reserve areas; and put forward corresponding control suggestions. The results of this paper could provide a scientific basis for regional development and territorial spatial planning in the coastal areas.

Towards Sustainable Management of Urban Ecological Space: A Zoning Approach Hybridized by Ecosystem Service Value and Ecological Risk Assessment

Massive growth is posing threat to the ecological security and sustainability of cities. Ecosystem service value (ESV) and ecological risk index (ERI) assessment can be conducted to enhance urban ecosystem management through the enhanced recognition of these values and risks in decision-making. This paper aimed to measure spatiotemporal ESV and ERI for Shizuishan City located in central China, and, based on this, how to zone urban ecological space using land cover data (for the years 2010, 2015, and 2020). The management options of different zones were suggested to mitigate and manage any potential negative impacts on urban ecological security. Results show that: (1) The spatial distribution characteristic of ESV is “high in the south and low in the north”. The total ESV exhibited an upward tendency from 2010 to 2020. (2) The high-ERI areas were distributed in the peripheral region, while the low-ERI areas were concentrated in the central region. The ERI of water was in decline continuously, whereas the ERI of wetland maintained a high level. (3) The zoning approach integrating ESV and ERI assessment can truly reflect the status of the environment and better clarify the direction of ecological development for different areas. Among four different ecological zones, the high-ESV and low-ERI areas (I) have abundant ecological resources, and they are set as “Priority Development Areas”. The low-ESV and low-ERI areas (II) are set as “Ecological Improvement Areas” because the area of ecological lands are confined. The low-ESV and high-ERI areas (III) have a fragile ecological environment, and they are set as “Exploitation-Prohibited Areas”. The high-ESV and high-ERI areas (IV) are mainly distributed near water and wetland, and they are set as “Research-focused Areas”.

The Evolution and Determinants of Ecosystem Services in Guizhou—A Typical Karst Mountainous Area in Southwest China

Due to rapid urbanization and economic development, the natural environment and ecological processes have been significantly affected by human activities. Especially in ecologically fragile karst areas, the ecosystems are more sensitive to external disturbances and have a hard time recovering, thus studies on the ecosystem services in these areas are significant. In view of this, we took Guizhou (a typical karst province) as the research area, evaluated the ecosystem service value (ESV) according to reclassified land uses and revised equivalent factors, and investigated the determinants of ecosystem services based on geographic detection. It was found that the total ESV showed a prominent increase trend, increasing from 152.55 billion CNY in 2000 to 285.50 billion CNY in 2020. The rise of grain prices due to growing social demands was the main factor in driving the increase of ESV. Spatially, the ESVs of central and western Guizhou were lower with cold spots appearing around human gathering areas, while that of southern and southeastern Guizhou were higher with hot spots that formed in continually distributed woodland. Moreover, the ESV per unit area and its change rate in karst regions were always lower than that in non-karst areas. Precipitation and temperature were the dominant nature factors while cultivation and population density were the main anthropogenic effects driving the evolution of ecosystem services. Therefore, positive human activities as well as rational and efficient land-use should be guided to promote the coordinated and high-quality development of ecology and the economy.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Changes with Ecosystem Service Value in the Yellow River Basin

Land use change plays a crucial role in global environmental change. Understanding the mode and land use change procedure is conducive to improving the quality of the global eco-environment and promoting the harmonized development of human–land relationships. Large river basins play an important role in areal socioeconomic development. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is an important ecological protective screen, economic zone, and major grain producing area in China, which faces challenges with respect to ecological degradation and water and sediment management. Simulating the alterations in ecosystem service value (ESV) owing to land use change in the YRB under multiple scenarios is of great importance to guaranteeing the ecological security of the basin and improve the regional ESV. According to the land use data of 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2018, the alterations in the land use and ESV in the YRB over the past 30 years were calculated and analyzed on the basis of six land use types: cultivated land, forestland, grassland, water area, built-up land, and unused land. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate the land use change in the study area under three scenarios (natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection in 2026); estimate the ESV under each scenario; and conduct a comparative analysis. We found that the land use area in the YRB changed significantly during the study period. The ESV of the YRB has slowly increased by ~USD 15 billion over the past 30 years. The ESV obtained under the ecological protection scenario is the highest. The simulation of the YRB’s future land use change, and comparison and analysis of the ESV under different scenarios, provide guidance and a scientific basis for promoting ecological conservation and high-quality development of river basins worldwide.

Spatial and Temporal Variation, Simulation and Prediction of Land Use in Ecological Conservation Area of Western Beijing

Exploring land use change is crucial to planning land space scientifically in a region. Taking the ecological conservation area (ECA) in western Beijing as the study area, we employ ArcGIS 10.2, landscape pattern index and multiple mathematical statistics to explore the temporal and spatial variation of land use from 2000 to 2020. Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS), Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) and Markov models were used to simulate and predict the current land use in 2020. The models were evaluated for accuracy, and the more accurate PLUS model was selected and used to simulate and predict the potential land use in the study area in 2030 under two management scenarios. The main findings of this research are: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the construction land increased constantly, and the area of cultivated land and grassland decreased significantly. (2) For predicting the spatial distribution of land use in the study area, the PLUS model was more accurate than the FLUS model. (3) The land-use prediction of the study area in 2030 shows that the area of grassland, forest and water is approximately equal to their corresponding value in 2020, but the construction land increased constantly by occupying the surrounding cultivated land. According to this research, the continuous decrease of cultivated land in favor of increasing construction land will cause losses to the ecological service function of the ECA, which is not beneficial to the sustainable development of the region. Relevant departments should take corresponding measures to reduce this practice and promote sustainable development, particularly in the southern and western areas of the ECA where there is less construction land.

Landscape Pattern and Ecological Risk Assessment in Guangxi Based on Land Use Change

Due to ecological environmental fragility and soil erosion in Guangxi, studies of landscape patterns and associated ecological risks are needed to guide sustainable land development and ecologically sensitive land management. This study assesses dynamic spatial and temporal change patterns in land use and ecological risks based on 30 m land-use data, analyzes spatial correlations with ecological risks, and explores natural and socio-economic factor impacts on ecological risks. The results reveal: (1) A rapid and sizeable construction land increase in Guangxi from 2000 to 2018 associated mainly with loss of woodland and grassland. (2) Guangxi had the highest number of arable land patches from 2000 to 2018, and the distribution tended to be fragmented; moreover, the construction land gradually expanded outward from concentrated areas to form larger aggregates with increasing internal stability each year. (3) Guangxi ecological risk levels were low, low–medium, and medium, with significantly different spatial distributions observed for areas possessing different ecological risk levels. Regional ecological risk gradually decreased from the middle Guangxi regions to the surrounding areas and was positively correlated with spatial distribution. (4) Socio-economic factor impacts on ecological risk exceeded natural factor impacts. These results provide guidance toward achieving ecologically sensitive regional land-use management and ecological risk reduction and control, it can also provide a reference for ecological risk research in other similar regions in the world.

Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity of Urban Expansion and Population Growth in China

Urbanization has become one of the hot issues of global sustainable development, and is mainly characterized by urban population growth and construction land expansion. However, the inharmonious development of urban expansion and population migration has brought serious challenges to urban planning and management. China is the largest developing country in the world, and the urbanization process has accelerated over the past decades. In this paper, decoupling analysis was used to demonstrate the spatio–temporal relationship between urban expansion and population growth in 321 prefecture–level cities in China, providing a reference basis for sustainable development. The results showed that China’s population, total GDP, and construction land area increased from 1990 to 2018. The rate of construction land expansion was larger in the eastern coastal and western regions than in the northeastern and central regions, but the population growth rate was not significantly different among these regions. According to the decoupling analysis, the relationships of population–GDP, construction land–GDP, and population–construction land were mainly weak decoupling, indicating that both the population growth and the construction land expansion lagged behind the economic development, and the population growth lagged behind construction land expansion. In addition, the results were analyzed based on China’s four economic regions. Population and construction land area changes in the northeastern provinces experienced a shift from weak decoupling to expansive negative decoupling, then presented a strong decoupling. The decoupling state of population–construction land in the west region was relatively stable. The relationship between population and construction land in the central regions was mainly weak decoupling, and some cities developed into strong decoupling. The relationship between population and construction land in the east region experienced a shift from strong decoupling to weak decoupling, then demonstrated expansive negative decoupling, mainly manifested in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations. Therefore, the northeast region should take measures to promote regional population growth while reasonably controlling the expansion of construction land, the west region should focus on ecological protection and moderately attract population, the central region should control their population development and reasonably allocate land, and the east region should pay attention to and solve the citizenship problem of migrant workers in second–tier and third–tier cities when promoting new urbanization.

Landscape Evolution and It's Impact of Ecosystem Service Value of the Wuhan City, China

Rapid urbanization and industrialization and enhanced ecological protection measures have greatly influenced landscape change, which has exacerbated regional landscape competition and conflicts and indirectly affected the supply of ecosystem services. Clarifying the relationship between ecosystem service change and landscape change is useful for understanding the impact of ecosystem conversion on socio-economic development and providing a knowledge base for relevant policy decisions. In this study, we used remote sensing technology to process Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI imageries, combined with transformation analysis and kernel density analysis to study the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use change in Wuhan City from 1980 to 2020. We also estimated the ESV in the region using the improved unit area value equivalent method to reveal the trends of ESV changes in Wuhan. The results showed that land use changes in Wuhan during 1980–2020 occurred mainly in terms of decreases in farmland, forestland, and bare land, as well as increases in built-up land and water bodies. The built-up land was mainly concentrated in the main urban areas, but its area in each suburban area has increased in recent years. In contrast, farmland was mainly distributed in suburban areas, and its area has been decreasing in recent years due to the impact of urban expansion. However, the reduction is compensated for by the reclamation of ecological land such as grassland and forestland, which has aggravated the loss of ecosystem service values in the study area. In addition, human activities such as urban expansion have increased the demand for water resources, while also leading to ecological problems such as water scarcity and water quality degradation, which have caused serious losses to key ecosystem services in Wuhan city. Therefore, in order to alleviate the competition and conflicts in the landscape and mitigate the loss of ecosystem service values in this area, we have proposed some constructive suggestions for future urban planning and water quality improvements in Wuhan. The focus of these suggestions is on controlling the expansion of built-up land, as well as the conservation of ecological land and resource protection. Meanwhile, our findings can also provide reference information for land resource planning and ecological monitoring, and help researchers to understand the contribution of ecosystem service functions in relation to socio-economic development.

Impacts of Human Activities on Ecosystem Service Value in Arid and Semi-Arid Ecological Regions of China

The quantitative and spatial–temporal variations in the characteristics of ecosystem value can be helpful to improve environmental protection and climate adaptation measures and adjust the balance between economic development and the ecological environment. The arid and semi-arid regions of China are undergoing the effects of climate change across the entire northern hemisphere. Their ecological environments are fragile and in conflict with anthropogenic activities, which significantly altered more ecosystems services in these regions. Therefore, estimating the effects of anthropogenic activities on ecosystem services is important for formulating ecological policy and regional environmental mitigation plans of these regions. This study employed the model of ecosystem service value (ESV) assessment and the bivariate spatial autocorrelation method to reveal the spatiotemporal variations in the characteristics of ecosystem value in the arid and semi-arid ecological regions of China and its interaction with human activities. Results showed that (1) the total value of ES of the study area increased from USD 487,807 billion in 2000 to USD 67,831,150 billion 2020; (2) the ES value provided by forest land first increased by 5.60% from 2000 to 2020; (3) the ESV provided by grassland showed an overall decline over the 20 years. Food and raw material production showed the lowest ES value, and climate regulation and soil conservation decreased from 2000 to 2020; (4) the index of human footprint patches decreased from 45.80% in 2000 to 17.63% in 2020, while the high and very high human footprint index areas increased significantly, mainly due to the rapid urbanization and improvement of railway networks in these areas. Spatially, the regions with high human footprint were mostly dispersed in the northeastern of China such as Shanxi and Gansu, whereas the regions with a low human footprint remained mainly located in the central and southwestern parts of China; (5) significant spatial dependencies between changes in ESV and the human footprint index were recorded. Our study could provide a scientific basis for ecosystem functions regulation and land development security in arid and semi-arid ecological regions.