Surface Urban Heat Islands Dynamics in Response to LULC and Vegetation across South Asia (2000–2019)

Impact of climate change on future flood susceptibility projections under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios in South Asia using artificial intelligence algorithms

This study investigated the impact of climate change on flood susceptibility in six South Asian countries Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Bharat (India), Nepal, and Pakistan-under two distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-5.8, for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. To predict flood susceptibility, we employed three artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms: the K-nearest neighbor (KNN), conditional inference random forest (CIRF), and regularized random forest (RRF). Predictions were based on data from 2452 historical flood events, alongside climatic variables measured over monthly, seasonal, and annual timeframes. The innovative aspect of this research is the emphasis on using climatic variables across these progressively condensed timeframes, specifically addressing eight precipitation factors. The performance evaluation, employing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) metric, identified the RRF model as the most accurate, with the highest AUC of 0.94 during the testing phase, followed by the CIRF (AUC = 0.91) and the KNN (AUC = 0.86). An analysis of variable importance highlighted the substantial role of certain climatic factors, namely precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual precipitation, and precipitation during the wettest month, in the modeling of flood susceptibility in South Asia. The resultant flood susceptibility maps demonstrated the influence of climate change scenarios on susceptibility classifications, signalling a dynamic landscape of flood-prone areas over time. The findings revealed variable trends under different climate change scenarios and periods, with marked differences in the percentage of areas classified as having high and very high flood susceptibility. Overall, this study advances our understanding of how climate change affects flood susceptibility in South Asia and offers an essential tool for assessing and managing flood risks in the region.

Knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions of farmers towards urban agroecology in Malaysia

Adopting agroecological approaches to build resilient urban food systems has recently gained traction around the world, but there is little to no reliable literature on the knowledge, attitudes, and perspectives of urban farmers towards these nature-based solutions in many developing nations, including Malaysia. The present study conducted an online survey to determine the extent to which local urban farmers understand and employ agroecology, as well as to assess their awareness and views on using agroecological practices and sustainable farm management. We found that the majority of respondents are unfamiliar with agroecological principles, with 79 % agreeing or strongly agreeing that implementing sustainable agricultural practices is challenging. However, more than 90 % of respondents are aware of the environmental consequences of excessive input utilisation. Our findings highlight the need for improved initiatives to promote agroecological approaches among farmers by sharing knowledge and best practices. In light of the growing threat posed by urban heat islands and the rapid urbanisation, this study offers novel insights into the knowledge gaps and perceptions about agroecological approaches among urban farmers, challenges that must be addressed to promote sustainable agriculture, and the potential role of farmers in achieving the three fundamental pillars of sustainability-planet, people, and prosperity.

Evaluating the impact of landscape configuration, patterns and composition on land surface temperature: an urban heat island study in the Megacity Lahore, Pakistan

The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon is negatively impacted by rapid urbanization, which significantly affects people's everyday lives, socioeconomic activities, and the urban thermal environment. This study focuses on the impact of composition, configuration, and landscape patterns on land surface temperature (LST) in Lahore, Pakistan. The study uses Landsat 5-TM and Landsat 8-OLI/TIRS data acquired over the years 2000, 2010 and 2020 to derive detailed information on land use, normalized difference vegetation index, LST, urban cooling islands (UCI), green cooling islands (GCI) and landscape metrics at the class and landscape level such as percentage of the landscape (PLAND), patch density (PD), class area (CA), largest patch index (LPI), number of patches (NP), aggregation index (AI), Landscape Shape Index (LSI), patch richness (PR), and mean patch shape index (SHAPE_MN). The study's results show that from the years 2000 to 2020, the built-up area increased by 17.57%, whereas vacant land, vegetation, and water bodies declined by 03.79%, 13.32% and 0.4% respectively. Furthermore, landscape metrics at the class level (PLAND, LSI, LPI, PD, AI, and NP) show that the landscape of Lahore is becoming increasingly heterogeneous and fragmented over time. The mean LST in the study area exhibited an increasing trend i.e. 18.87°C in 2000, 20.93°C in 2010, and 22.54°C in 2020. The significant contribution of green spaces is vital for reducing the effects of UHI and is highlighted by the fact that the mean LST of impervious surfaces is, on average, roughly 3°C higher than that of urban green spaces. The findings also demonstrate that there is a strong correlation between mean LST and both the amount of green space (which is negative) and impermeable surface (which is positive). The increasing trend of fragmentation and shape complexity highlighted a positive correlation with LST, while all area-related matrices including PLAND, CA and LPI displayed a negative correlation with LST. The mean LST was significantly correlated with the size, complexity of the shape, and aggregation of the patches of impervious surface and green space, although aggregation demonstrated the most constant and robust correlation. The results indicate that to create healthier and more comfortable environments in cities, the configuration and composition of urban impermeable surfaces and green spaces should be important considerations during the landscape planning and urban design processes.

Spatio-temporal classification of land use and land cover and its changes in Kerala using remote sensing and machine learning approach

Land use and land cover (LULC) analysis gives important information on how the region has evolved over time. Kerala, a land with an extensive and dynamic history of land-use changes, has, until now, lacked comprehensive investigations into this history. So the current study focuses on Kerala, one of the ecologically diverse states in India with complex topography, through Landsat images taken from 1990 to 2020 using two different machine learning classifications, random forest (RF) and classification and regression trees (CART) on Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. RF and CART are versatile machine learning algorithms frequently employed for classification and regression, offering effective tools for predictive modelling across diverse domains due to their flexibility and data-handling capabilities. Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalised Differences Built-up Index (NDBI), Modified Normalised Difference Water Index (MNDWI), and Bare soil index (BSI) are integral indices utilised to enhance the precision of land use and land cover classification in satellite imagery, playing a crucial role by providing valuable insights into specific landscape attributes that may be challenging to identify using individual spectral bands alone. The results showed that the performance of RF is better than that of CART in all the years. Thus, RF algorithm outputs are used to infer the change in the LULC for three decades. The changes in the NDVI values point out the loss of vegetation for the urban area expansion during the study period. The increasing value of NDBI and BSI in the state indicates growth in high-density built-up areas and barren land. The slight reduction in the value of MNDWI indicates the shrinking water bodies in the state. The results of LULC showed the urban expansion (158.2%) and loss of agricultural area (15.52%) in the region during the study period. It was noted the area of the barren class, as well as the water class, decreased steadily from 1990 to 2020. The results of the current study will provide insight into the land-use planners, government, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) for the necessary sustainable land-use practices.

Research on the spatiotemporal coupling relationships between land use/land cover compositions or patterns and the surface urban heat island effect

Urbanization leads to changes in landscape configuration and land use/land cover (LULC) patterns, and these changes are important factors affecting the surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect. However, from the perspective of spatiotemporal changes, quantitative analytical results regarding the impacts of the LULC composition, configuration, and pattern in inland plateau lakeside cities on the SUHI effect, and the responsive relationships among these factors remain unclear. By combining satellite remote sensing data with analytical methods, such as urban-rural gradients, spatial statistics, and landscape pattern indices, the impacts of LULC changes on the SUHI effect in Kunming, China, are revealed. The results show the following. (1) The explosive growth in impervious surfaces (ISs) caused by urbanization, leading to changes in the LULC composition, configuration and pattern, is the main reason for the deterioration of the SUHI effect. Over the past 30 years, Kunming's ISs have increased by 304.58 km², SUHI has expanded by 764.26 km², and the regional average land surface temperature (LST) has increased by 1 °C. (2) This study also found that a large area of bare ground is another important reason for the sharp rise in LST, explaining why bare land (BL) has the highest average LST (28.72 °C). (3) The pattern of LULC can well explain the spatial distribution characteristics of SUHIs. The normalized difference built-up index (NDBI), normalized difference bareness index (NDBaI), and LST have the same change curve along the urban-rural gradient, while the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI), and LST have opposite trends. (4) ISs and water body (WB) are the main types of warming and cooling, respectively, but the warming effect of ISs is greater than the cooling effect of WB. From the average value of the correlation coefficient with LST, NDBI (0.84) > MNDWI (-0.63). (5) Kunming's remote sensing index values do not have simple linear relationships with the LST. NDBaI, NDBI, and LST show significant exponential relationships, and NDVI, MNDWI, and LST show significant quadratic polynomial relationships. (6) The dominant landscape type determines the correlation between the landscape shape index (LSI) and the LST of green spaces (GSs). (7) Adopting a simple and regular landscape layout can effectively reduce the SUHI effect. These research results could provide a scientific decision-making basis for the spatial urban planning and ecological construction of Kunming and could have practical significance for guiding the green, healthy, and sustainable development of the city.

Characterizing Spatiotemporal Variations in the Urban Thermal Environment Related to Land Cover Changes in Karachi, Pakistan, from 2000 to 2020

Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of urban heat islands and the factors that influence this phenomenon can help to alleviate the heat stress exacerbated by urban warming and strengthen heat-related urban resilience, thereby contributing to the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The association between surface urban heat island (SUHI) effects and land use/land cover features has been studied extensively, but the situation in tropical cities is not well-understood due to the lack of consistent data. This study aimed to explore land use/land cover (LULC) changes and their impact on the urban thermal environment in a tropical megacity—Karachi, Pakistan. Land cover maps were produced, and the land surface temperature (LST) was estimated using Landsat images from five different years over the period 2000–2020. The surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) was then quantified based on the LST data. Statistical analyses, including geographically weighted regression (GWR) and correlation analyses, were performed in order to analyze the relationship between the land cover composition and LST. The results indicated that the built-up area of Karachi increased from 97.6 km² to 325.33 km² during the period 2000–2020. Among the different land cover types, the areas classified as built-up or bare land exhibited the highest LST, and a change from vegetation to bare land led to an increase in LST. The correlation analysis indicated that the correlation coefficients between the normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) and LST ranged from 0.14 to 0.18 between 2000 and 2020 and that NDBI plays a dominant role in influencing the LST. The GWR analysis revealed the spatial variation in the association between the land cover composition and the SUHII. Parks with large areas of medium- and high-density vegetation play a significant role in regulating the thermal environment, whereas the scattered vegetation patches in the urban core do not have a significant relationship with the LST. These findings can be used to inform adaptive land use planning that aims to mitigate the effects of the UHI and aid efforts to achieve sustainable urban growth.

Trends and projections of land use land cover and land surface temperature using an integrated weighted evidence-cellular automata (WE-CA) model

Land use land cover (LULC) change has become a major concern for biodiversity, ecosystem alteration, and modifying the climatic pattern especially land surface temperature (LST). The present study assessed past and predicted future LULC and LST change in the Swabi District of Pakistan. LULC maps were generated from satellite data for years 1987, 2002, and 2017 using supervised classification. Mean LST and its areal change were estimated for different LULC classes from thermal bands of satellite images. LULC and LST were projected for the year 2047 using the integrated weighted evidence-cellular automata (WE-CA) model and a regression equation developed in this study, respectively. LULC change revealed an increase of > 5% in the built-up while a decrease in the agricultural area by ~ 9%. There was an increase of ~ 63% area in the LST class ≥ 27 °C which may create urban heat island (UHI). Simulation results indicated that the built-up area will further be increased by ~ 3% until 2047. Area associated with LST class > 30 °C indicated a further increase of ~ 38% till 2047 with reference to year 2017. Findings of this study suggested proper utilization of LULC in order to mitigate the creation of UHIs associated with urbanization and built-up areas.

A Multi-Criteria Evaluation of the Urban Ecological Environment in Shanghai Based on Remote Sensing

The urban ecological environment is related to human health and is one of the most concerned issues nowadays. Hence, it is essential to detect and then evaluate the urban ecological environment. However, the conventional manual detection methods have many limitations, such as the high cost of labor, time, and capital. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the urban ecological environment more conveniently and reasonably, thus this paper proposed an ecological environment evaluation method based on remote sensing and a projection pursuit model. Firstly, a series of criteria for the urban ecological environment in Shanghai City are obtained through remote sensing technology. Then, the ecological environment is comprehensively evaluated using the projection pursuit model. Lastly, the ecological environment changes of Shanghai City are analyzed. The results show that the average remote sensing ecological index of Shanghai in 2020 increased obviously compared with that in 2016. In addition, Jinshan District, Songjiang District, and Qingpu District have higher ecological environment quality, while Hongkou District, Jingan District, and Huangpu District have lower ecological environment quality. In addition, the ecological environment of all districts has a significant positive spatial autocorrelation. These findings suggest that the ecological environment of Shanghai has improved overall in the past five years. In addition, Hongkou District, Jingan District, and Huangpu District should put more effort into improving the ecological environment in future, and the improvement of ecological environment should consider the impact of surrounding districts. Moreover, the proposed weight setting method is more reasonable, and the proposed evaluation method is convenient and practical.