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Dong D, Tao H, Zhang Z. Projected population exposure to heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, China. Sci Rep 2024; 14:4570. [PMID: 38403647 PMCID: PMC10894881 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-54885-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 02/17/2024] [Indexed: 02/27/2024] Open
Abstract
The intensification of heatwaves dues to climate change is a significant concern, with substantial impacts on ecosystems and human health, particularly in developing countries. This study utilizes NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) and projected population data accounting for China's population policies to project changes in various grades of heatwaves (light, moderate, and severe) and the population exposure to heatwaves (PEH) in Xinjiang under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the number of days and intensity of heatwaves in Xinjiang are projected to increase. Heatwaves occurring in Xinjiang will predominantly be severe heatwaves (SHW) in the long-term under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, and the number of SHW days projected to increase by 62 ± 18.4 days compared to the reference period. Changes in heatwaves are anticipated to influence PEH, estimating population exposure to light, moderate, and severe heatwaves (LPEH, MPEH, and SPEH) at 534.6 ± 64 million, 496.2 ± 43.5 million, and 1602.4 ± 562.5 million person-days, respectively, in the long-term under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The spatial distribution of PEH is projected to be consistent with that of the reference period, with high values persisting in Urumqi, Kashgar and Hotan. Changes in PEH are primarily driven by climate effects, followed by interactive effects, while population effects contribute the least. Therefore, mitigating climate change is crucial to reduce the PEH in Xinjiang.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diwen Dong
- College of Ecology and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830017, China
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
- Institute of Statistics and Data Science, Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics, Urumqi, 830012, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
| | - Hui Tao
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China.
| | - Zengxin Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
- Joint Innovation Center for Modern Forestry Studies, College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China
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Jaber SM, Abu-Allaban MM, Sengupta R. Spatial and temporal patterns of indicators of climate change and variability in the Arab world in the past four decades. Sci Rep 2023; 13:15145. [PMID: 37704789 PMCID: PMC10499885 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-42499-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2023] [Accepted: 09/11/2023] [Indexed: 09/15/2023] Open
Abstract
A comprehensive assessment of the spatial and temporal patterns of the most common indicators of climate change and variability in the Arab world in the past four decades was carried out. Monthly maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation amount data for the period 1980-2018 were obtained from the CHELSA project with a resolution of 1 km2, which is suitable for detecting local geographic variations in climatic patterns. This data was analyzed using a seasonal-Kendall metric, followed by Sen's slope analysis. The findings indicate that almost all areas of the Arab world are getting hotter. Maximum air temperatures increased by magnitudes varying from 0.027 to 0.714 °C/decade with a mean of 0.318 °C/decade while minimum air temperatures increased by magnitudes varying from 0.030 to 0.800 °C/decade with a mean of 0.356 °C/decade. Most of the Arab world did not exhibit clear increasing or decreasing precipitation trends. The remaining areas showed either decreasing or increasing precipitation trends. Decreasing trends varied from -0.001 to -1.825 kg m-2/decade with a mean of -0.163 kg m-2/decade, while increasing trends varied from 0.001 to 4.286 kg m-2/decade with a mean of 0.366 kg m-2/decade. We also analyzed country-wise data and identified areas of most vulnerability in the Arab world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Salahuddin M Jaber
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, QC, H3A0B9, Canada.
- Department of Water Management and Environment, Prince El-Hassan bin Talal Faculty for Natural Resources and Environment, The Hashemite University, P.O. Box 330127, Zarqa, 13133, Jordan.
| | - Mahmoud M Abu-Allaban
- Department of Water Management and Environment, Prince El-Hassan bin Talal Faculty for Natural Resources and Environment, The Hashemite University, P.O. Box 330127, Zarqa, 13133, Jordan
| | - Raja Sengupta
- Department of Geography, Bieler School of Environment, McGill University, Montreal, QC, H3A0B9, Canada
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Dong D, Tao H, Zhang Z. Historic evolution of population exposure to heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. Sci Rep 2023; 13:7401. [PMID: 37149675 PMCID: PMC10164190 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-34123-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2022] [Accepted: 04/25/2023] [Indexed: 05/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Heatwaves have pronounced impacts on human health and the environment on a global scale. Although the characteristics of heatwaves has been well documented, there still remains a lack of dynamic studies of population exposure to heatwaves (PEH), particularly in the arid regions. In this study, we analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of heatwaves and PEH in Xinjiang using the daily maximum temperature (Tmax), relative humidity (RH), and high-resolution gridded population datasets. The results revealed that the heatwaves in Xinjiang occur more continually and intensely from 1961 to 2020. Furthermore, there is substantial spatial heterogeneity of heatwaves with eastern part of the Tarim Basin, Turpan, and Hami been the most prone areas. The PEH in Xinjiang showed an increasing trend with high areas mainly in Kashgar, Aksu, Turpan, and Hotan. The increase in PEH is mainly contributed from population growth, climate change and their interaction. From 2001 to 2020, the climate effect contribution decreased by 8.5%, the contribution rate of population and interaction effects increased by 3.3% and 5.2%, respectively. This work provides a scientific basis for the development of policies to improve the resilience against hazards in arid regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diwen Dong
- College of Ecology and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
- College of Statistics & Data Science, Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics, Urumqi, 830012, China
| | - Hui Tao
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
| | - Zengxin Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China.
- Joint Innovation Center for Modern Forestry Studies, College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, Jiangsu, China.
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Liang L, Yu L, Wang Z. Identifying the dominant impact factors and their contributions to heatwave events over mainland China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 848:157527. [PMID: 35931164 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157527] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2022] [Revised: 07/09/2022] [Accepted: 07/16/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The heatwave frequency and intensity have significantly changed as the climate warms and human activities increase, which poses a potential risk to human society. However, the impact factors that determine the change of heatwave events remain unclear. Here, we estimated the heatwave events based on data from 2474 in-suit gauges during 1960-2018 at daily scale in China. Besides, we explored possible drivers and their contributions to the change of heatwave based on correlation analysis, multiple linear regression (MLR), and random forest (RF) in different subregions of China. The results show that the temporal changes of all heatwave metrics exhibit significant differences between the period 1960-1984 and the period 1985-2019. Spatially, the heatwave frequency and duration significant increase in the southern China (S), eastern arid region (EA), northeastern China (NE), Qinghai-Tibet region (QT) and western arid and semi-arid region (WAS). The occurrence of the first heatwave event in a year tends to be earlier in S, NE, EA, WAS, and QT than before. Based on the regression modelling and RF, human activities play an important role in heatwave intensity in all subregions of China. For heatwave frequency, urbanization generate a dominant influence in NE, EA, and QT, with relative contributions (RC) ranging from 32.8 % to 38.9 %. Long-term climate change exerts the dominant influence in C, N, and S. Moreover, the first day of the yearly heatwave event (HWT) in NE is significantly influenced by climate change, with RC of 33.9 % for temperature variation (TEM). Our findings could provide critical information for understanding the causes of heatwave across different regions of China in the context of rapid urbanization and climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liaofeng Liang
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101400, China
| | - Linfei Yu
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101400, China
| | - Zhonggen Wang
- Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; National Institute of Natural Hazards, Ministry of Emergency Management of China, Beijing 100085, China.
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