Evaluation of Satellite-Derived Products for the Daily Average and Extreme Rainfall in the Mearim River Drainage Basin (Maranhão, Brazil)

Analysis of Debris Flow Triggering Conditions for Different Rainfall Patterns Based on Satellite Rainfall Products in Hengduan Mountain Region, China

Rainfall is the main factor that induces debris flow. Satellite rainfall products provide a new source of data in terms of debris flow-triggering conditions to overcome the lack of rainfall data coverage from ground-based rainfall gauges in large-scale mountainous regions. In this study, the applicability of four satellite rainfall products (CMORPH, GPM, MSWEP, and PERSIANN) in the Hengduan Mountain region (HMR) was evaluated with reference to ground observation data from 2000 to 2020. The critical rainfall and rainfall thresholds under different rainfall patterns and warning levels that trigger debris flows were analyzed according to the empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) and cumulative probability. The results showed that CMORPH (comprehensive indicator score (CI = 0.72) and GPM (CI = 0.70) performed better in the simulation of daily rainfall sequence consistency and extreme rainfall conditions in the study area. CMORPH also had the highest reconstruction rate for correctly capturing rainfall events that triggered debris flows, with a value of 89%. Approximately half of the rainfall patterns that cause debris flows are antecedent-effective-rainfall-dominated. Both intraday-rainfall-dominated and intraday-antecedent-rainfall-balanced patterns were below 30%. There were evident differences in the critical rainfall for different rainfall patterns under the same warning level. By comparing the results of previous studies on rainfall thresholds, it is believed that the results of this study confirm the application of satellite rainfall products; in addition, the calculated rainfall thresholds can provide a reference for the early warning of debris flows in the HMR. In general, this work is of great significance to the prediction and early warning of debris flow hazards.

Spatiotemporal nonhomogeneous poisson model with a seasonal component applied to the analysis of extreme rainfall

This paper develops an extension of spatiotemporal models that handle count data using nonhomogeneous Poisson processes. In this new proposal, we incorporate a seasonal cycle component in the definition of the intensity function to control possible effects produced by the occurrence of the event of interest in regular periods. The seasonal cycle can cause problems in estimating the shape parameter of the Weibull and generalized Goel intensity functions. This shape parameter serves to confront the research hypothesis that seeks to identify a trend in the occurrence rate of an event of interest. In the case of the Weibull intensity function, a value significantly equal to one of the shape parameters indicates a constant rate of occurrence, less than one indicates a decreasing rate, and greater than one indicates an increasing rate. In the case of the Goel intensity function, parameter values less than or equal to one indicate a decreasing occurrence rate, and values greater than one indicate the presence of a change point. We also built a spatial model using the Musa-Okumoto intensity function as an alternative to approximate counting processes for which there is a decreasing trend in the occurrence rate of the event of interest. We estimated the parameters of the proposed method from a Bayesian perspective. Finally, we fitted the proposed model and compared it with other approximations to analyze the frequency of extreme rainfall in the northern region of the states of Maranhão and Piauí in northeastern Brazil over ten years. Among the main results, we found that (1) the proposed method has proven superior in terms of fit and prediction performance than the other models, and (2) unlike other approximations, the proposed model does not detect changes in the rate of extreme rainfall occurrences.