Modeling Potential Impacts on Regional Climate Due to Land Surface Changes across Mongolia Plateau

Diverse responses of surface biogeophysical parameters to accelerated development and senescence of vegetation on the Mongolian Plateau

Vegetation dynamics is essential for characterizing surface biogeophysical parameters. Speeds of vegetation development and senescence are well documented, however, the effects of vegetation growth rates on surface parameters during different growth stages remains unclear. By using such methods as trend analyses and correlation analyses, this study examines the variations and interactive relationships of leaf area index (LAI) and surface parameters including Albedo, evapotranspiration (ET), and land surface temperature (LST), derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), during the intra-growing season (April-October, GS) on the Mongolian Plateau (MP). Generally, LAI exhibited a significant upward trend across GS months. Significant changes in VLAI (the difference in LAI between 2 consecutive months) in April-May and September-October indicated that the vegetation change rates were accelerated in the early GS (April-June) and late GS (September-October). The effect of vegetation activity on surface parameters varies over time and space. The effects of VLAI on the speed of surface parameters were inconsistent during the intra-GS. As a result of the significant changes in LAI, VET (the difference in ET between 2 consecutive months) displayed a significant upward trend during the early GS but a significant downward trend during the late GS. With acceleration of vegetation activity, the effects of VET and VAlbedo (the difference in Albedo between 2 consecutive months) on LST could offset each other at different stages of the GS. In addition, the effect of VLAI on the speed of surface parameters varied significantly by vegetation types. Our findings imply that clarifying the impact of vegetation activity on surface parameters at different growth stages can advance our understanding of vegetation responses and feedbacks to climate change.

Spatial and temporal variations of grassland vegetation on the Mongolian Plateau and its response to climate change

The Mongolian Plateau is an arid and semi-arid region with grassland as its main vegetation. It has a fragile ecosystem and is a sensitive area for global warming. The study is based on MODIS NDVI data and growth season meteorological data from 2000 to 2018, this study examined the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of grassland vegetation on the Mongolian Plateau during the growing season using trend analysis, partial correlation analysis, and residual analysis, and it explores the dual response of NDVI changes to climate and human activities. The study’s findings demonstrated that the growing season average NDVI of grassland vegetation on the plateau gradually increased from southwest to northeast during the growing season; the growing season average NDVI demonstrated a significant overall increase of 0.023/10a (p < 0.05) from 2000 to 2018, with an increase rate of 0.030/10a in Inner Mongolia and 0.019/10a in Mongolia; the area showing a significant increase in NDVI during the growing season accounted for 91.36% of the entire study area. In Mongolian Plateau grasslands during the growing season of 2000–2018, precipitation and downward surface shortwave radiation grew significantly at rates of 34.83mm/10a and 0.57 W/m2/10a, respectively, while average air temperature decreased slightly at a rate of −0.018°C/10a. Changes in meteorological factors of grassland vegetation varied by region as well, with Inner Mongolia seeing higher rates of precipitation, lower rates of average air temperature, and lower rates of downward surface shortwave radiation than Mongolia. On the Mongolian Plateau, the NDVI of grassland vegetation in the growing season showed a significant positive correlation with precipitation (0.31) and a significant negative correlation with average air temperature (−0.09) and downward surface shortwave radiation (−0.19), indicating that increased in NDVI was driven by an increase in precipitation paired with a decrease in air temperature and a decrease in surface shortwave radiation. The overall increase in NDVI caused by human activity in the grasslands of the Mongolian Plateau was primarily positive, with around 18.37% of the region being beneficial. Climate change and human activity both affect NDVI variations in Mongolian Plateau grasslands, which are spatially heterogeneous. Moderate ecological engineering and agricultural production activities are crucial for vegetation recovery. This work is crucial to further understanding surface–atmosphere interactions in arid and semi-arid regions in the context of global climate change.