Summer Marine Heatwaves in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension Region

Impact of an unprecedented marine heatwave on extremely hot summer over Northern Japan in 2023

Possible local influence of an extreme marine heatwave is investigated on unprecedentedly hot summer around northern Japan in 2023. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and subsurface ocean temperatures around northern Japan were also unprecedentedly high in the summer. This was especially the case off the east coast of Japan, where cool Oyashio water was replaced with much warmer water due to a striking poleward meander of the Kuroshio Extension persistent from the spring. Particularly amplified near-surface air temperature anomalies and even stronger warm anomalies in the subsurface ocean suggest that the marine heatwave acted to sustain the atmospheric heatwave. Anomalous upward of latent and sensible heat fluxes from the warmed sea surface are indicative of local oceanic impact. The warm SST anomalies reduced the lower-tropospheric stratification to maintain unfavourable condition for low-level cloud formation, which in turn led to increased surface insolation for further SST warming as positive feedback. The increased moisture in the warmed lower troposphere contributed to the enhanced surface downward longwave radiation. This enhanced greenhouse effect acted not only as positive feedback on the warm SST anomalies that increased evaporation but also as a contributor for the extreme warmth over northern Japan landmass.

Atmospheric pathway of marine heatwaves over the Northwestern Pacific

This study analyzes the influence of the Pacific-Japan (PJ) atmospheric teleconnection pattern and its interaction with oceanic processes on sea surface warming over the Northwestern Pacific. The PJ pattern is a thermally driven Rossby wave that originates over the tropical western Pacific through deep convection and propagates toward high latitudes. It plays a significant role in sea surface warming by inducing anticyclonic circulation and the corresponding northwestward extension of the subtropical high over the Northwestern Pacific. This study revealed that the key processes responsible for sea surface warming were an increase in insolation and a decrease in the ocean-to-atmosphere latent heat flux under the anticyclonic conditions driven by the PJ. This finding provides valuable insights into the role of atmospheric processes, we refer to it as the "atmospheric pathway", in the development of East Asian marine heatwaves (MHWs). A detailed understanding of this process will contribute to the prediction and mitigation of MHWs in East Asian countries.

An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)-extremely warm, persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies causing substantial ecological and economic consequences-have increased worldwide in recent decades. Concurrent increases in global temperatures suggest that climate change impacted MHW occurrences, beyond random changes arising from natural internal variability. Moreover, the long-term SST warming trend was not constant but instead had more rapid warming in recent decades. Here we show that this nonlinear trend can-on its own-appear to increase SST variance and hence MHW frequency. Using a Linear Inverse Model to separate climate change contributions to SST means and internal variability, both in observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, we find that most MHW increases resulted from regional mean climate trends that alone increased the probability of SSTs exceeding a MHW threshold. Our results suggest the need to carefully attribute global warming-induced changes in climate extremes, which may not always reflect underlying changes in variability.