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Lu QB. Critical Review on Radiative Forcing and Climate Models for Global Climate Change since 1970. ATMOSPHERE 2023; 14:1232. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos14081232] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/01/2023]
Abstract
This review identifies a critical problem in the fundamental physics of current climate models. The large greenhouse effect of rising CO2 assumed in climate models is assessed by six key observations from ground- and satellite-based measurements. This assessment is enhanced by statistical analyses and model calculations of global or regional mean surface temperature changes by conventional climate models and by a conceptual quantum physical model of global warming due to halogen-containing greenhouse gases (halo-GHGs). The postulated large radiative forcing of CO2 in conventional climate models does not agree with satellite observations. Satellite-observed warming pattern resembles closely the atmospheric distribution of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). This review helps understand recent remarkable observations of reversals from cooling to warming in the lower stratosphere over most continents and in the upper stratosphere at high latitudes, surface warming cessations in the Antarctic, North America, UK, and Northern-Hemisphere (NH) extratropics, and the stabilization in NH or North America snow cover, since the turn of the century. The complementary observation of surface temperature changes in 3 representative regions (Central England, the Antarctic, and the Arctic) sheds new light on the primary mechanism of global warming. These observations agree well with not CO2-based climate models but the CFC-warming quantum physical model. The latter offers parameter-free analytical calculations of surface temperature changes, exhibiting remarkable agreement with observations. These observations overwhelmingly support an emerging picture that halo-GHGs made the dominant contribution to global warming in the late 20th century and that a gradual reversal in warming has occurred since ~2005 due to the phasing out of halo-GHGs. Advances and insights from this review may help humans make rational policies to reverse the past warming and maintain a healthy economy and ecosystem.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qing-Bin Lu
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, Department of Biology and Department of Chemistry, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada
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Toward strong science to support equitable water sharing in securitized transboundary watersheds. Biologia (Bratisl) 2019. [DOI: 10.2478/s11756-019-00334-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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Northern Hemisphere Snow-Cover Trends (1967–2018): A Comparison between Climate Models and Observations. GEOSCIENCES 2019. [DOI: 10.3390/geosciences9030135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Observed changes in Northern Hemisphere snow cover from satellite records were compared to those predicted by all available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (“CMIP5”) climate models over the duration of the satellite’s records, i.e., 1967–2018. A total of 196 climate model runs were analyzed (taken from 24 climate models). Separate analyses were conducted for the annual averages and for each of the seasons (winter, spring, summer, and autumn/fall). A longer record (1922–2018) for the spring season which combines ground-based measurements with satellite measurements was also compared to the model outputs. The climate models were found to poorly explain the observed trends. While the models suggest snow cover should have steadily decreased for all four seasons, only spring and summer exhibited a long-term decrease, and the pattern of the observed decreases for these seasons was quite different from the modelled predictions. Moreover, the observed trends for autumn and winter suggest a long-term increase, although these trends were not statistically significant. Possible explanations for the poor performance of the climate models are discussed.
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Varotsos CA, Efstathiou MN, Cracknell AP. Plausible reasons for the inconsistencies between the modeled and observed temperatures in the tropical troposphere. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2013; 40:4906-4910. [DOI: 10.1002/grl.50646] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Costas A. Varotsos
- Climate Research GroupDivision of Environmental Physics and MeteorologyFaculty of PhysicsUniversity of Athens Athens Greece
| | - Maria N. Efstathiou
- Climate Research GroupDivision of Environmental Physics and MeteorologyFaculty of PhysicsUniversity of Athens Athens Greece
| | - Arthur P. Cracknell
- Division of Electronic Engineering and PhysicsUniversity of Dundee Dundee UK
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Mears CA, Wentz FJ, Thorne PW. Assessing the value of Microwave Sounding Unit-radiosonde comparisons in ascertaining errors in climate data records of tropospheric temperatures. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2012. [DOI: 10.1029/2012jd017710] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Mears CA, Wentz FJ, Thorne P, Bernie D. Assessing uncertainty in estimates of atmospheric temperature changes from MSU and AMSU using a Monte-Carlo estimation technique. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Satellite Global and Hemispheric Lower Tropospheric Temperature Annual Temperature Cycle. REMOTE SENSING 2010. [DOI: 10.3390/rs2112561] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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