Trends in the Start of the Growing Season in Fennoscandia 1982–2011

Changes in Onset of Vegetation Growth on Svalbard, 2000-2020

The global temperature is increasing, and this is affecting the vegetation phenology in many parts of the world. The most prominent changes occur at northern latitudes such as our study area, which is Svalbard, located between 76°30'N and 80°50'N. A cloud-free time series of MODIS-NDVI data was processed. The dataset was interpolated to daily data during the 2000-2020 period with a 231.65 m pixel resolution. The onset of vegetation growth was mapped with a NDVI threshold method which corresponds well with a recent Sentinel-2 NDVI-based mapping of the onset of vegetation growth, which was in turn validated by a network of in-situ phenological data from time lapse cameras. The results show that the years 2000 and 2008 were extreme in terms of the late onset of vegetation growth. The year 2020 had the earliest onset of vegetation growth on Svalbard during the 21-year study. Each year since 2013 had an earlier or equally early timing in terms of the onset of the growth season compared with the 2000-2020 average. A linear trend of 0.57 days per year resulted in an earlier onset of growth of 12 days on average for the entire archipelago of Svalbard in 2020 compared to 2000.

Increase in protandry over time in a long‐distance migratory bird

Protandry is a widespread life‐history phenomenon describing how males precede females at the site or state of reproduction. In migratory birds, protandry has an important influence on individual fitness, the migratory syndrome, and phenological response to climate change. Despite its significance, accurate analyses on the dynamics of protandry using data sets collected at the breeding site, are lacking. Basing our study on records collected during two time periods, 1979 to 1988 and 2006 to 2016, we aim to investigate protandry dynamics over 38 years in a breeding population of willow warblers (Phylloscopus trochilus). Change in the timing of arrival was analyzed in males and females, and protandry (number of days between male and female arrival) was investigated both at population level and within breeding pairs. Our results show advancement in the arrival time at the breeding site in both sexes, but male arrival has advanced to a greater extent, leading to an increase in protandry both at the population level and within breeding pairs. We did not observe any change in sex ratio that could explain the protandry increase, but pronounced temperature change has occurred and been reported in the breeding area and along the migratory route. Typically, natural selection opposes too early arrival in males, but given warmer springs, this counteracting force may be relaxing, enabling an increase in protandry. We discuss whether our results suggest that climate change has induced sex‐specific effects, if these could be evolutionary and whether the timing of important life‐history stages such as arrival at the breeding site may change at different rates in males and females following environmental shifts.

Distribution and Attribution of Earlier Start of the Growing Season over the Northern Hemisphere from 2001–2018

The start of the growing season (SOS) is a vital ecological indicator for climate change and the terrestrial ecosystem. Previous studies have reported that the SOS over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) has experienced remarkable changes in the past few decades. However, because of the different spatial and temporal coverages of existing SOS studies, a coherent and robust account for SOS changes in the NH has been lacking. Using satellite-retrieved vegetation-phenology datasets, ground observations, and several auxiliary datasets, this study evaluated the performance of the latest MODIS vegetation-dynamics dataset (MCD12Q2-C6) and explored the distribution and attribution of the SOS to climate change over the NH for the period 2001–2018. The validation results using the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network (CERN) and Lilac-leafing observations (Lilac) displayed that the MCD12Q2-C6 has a good performance in SOS monitoring over the NH mid-latitudes. Meanwhile, evidence from MCD12Q2-C6 pointed out that the SOS was advanced by 2.08 days on average over the NH during 2001–2018, especially for Europe, China, and Alaska, United States. In addition, detailed-sensitivity analysis showed that the increased surface air temperature (Ts) (−1.21 ± 0.34 days °C−1) and reduced snow-cover fraction (Sc) (0.62 ± 0.29 days%−1) were the key driving factors of the observed SOS changes over the NH during 2001–2018. Compared with Ts and Sc, the role of total precipitation (Pt) was minor in dominating the spring vegetation-phenology changes at the same period. The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of the responses of SOS to the competing changes of Ts, Pt, and Sc over the NH.

Time-Series of Cloud-Free Sentinel-2 NDVI Data Used in Mapping the Onset of Growth of Central Spitsbergen, Svalbard

The Arctic is a region that is expected to experience a high increase in temperature. Changes in the timing of phenological phases, such as the onset of growth (as observed by remote sensing), is a sensitive bio-indicator of climate change. In this paper, the study area was the central part of Spitsbergen, Svalbard, located between 77.28°N and 78.44°N. The goals of this study were: (1) to prepare, analyze and present a cloud-free time-series of daily Sentinel-2 NDVI datasets for the 2016 to 2019 seasons, and (2) to demonstrate the use of the dataset in mapping the onset of growth. Due to a short and intense period with greening-up and frequent cloud cover, all the cloud-free Sentinel-2 data were used. The onset of growth was then mapped by a NDVI threshold method, which showed significant correlation (r2 = 0.47, n = 38, p < 0.0001) with ground-based phenocam observation of the onset of growth in seven vegetation types. However, large bias was found between the Sentinel-2 NDVI-based mapped onset of growth and the phenocam-based onset of growth in a moss tundra, which indicates that the data in these vegetation types must be interpreted with care. In 2018, the onset of growth was about 10 days earlier compared to 2017.

Mapping of Cotton Fields Within-Season Using Phenology-Based Metrics Derived from a Time Series of Landsat Imagery

A phenology-based crop type mapping approach was carried out to map cotton fields throughout the cotton-growing areas of eastern Australia. The workflow was implemented in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, as it is time efficient and does not require processing in multiple platforms to complete the classification steps. A time series of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) imagery were generated from Landsat 8 Surface Reflectance Tier 1 (L8SR) and processed using Fourier transformation. This was used to produce the harmonised-NDVI (H-NDVI) from the original NDVI, and then phase and amplitude values were generated from the H-NDVI to visualise active cotton in the targeted fields. Random Forest (RF) models were built to classify cotton at early, mid and late growth stages to assess the ability of the model to classify cotton as the season progresses, with phase, amplitude and other individual bands as predictors. Results obtained from leave-one-season-out cross validation (LOSOCV) indicated that Overall Accuracy (OA), Kappa, Producer’s Accuracies (PA) and User’s Accuracy (UA), increased significantly when adding amplitude and phase as predictor variables to the model, than prediction using H-NDVI or raw bands only. Commission and omission errors were reduced significantly as the season progressed and more in-season imagery was available. The methodology proposed in this study can map cotton crops accurately based on the reconstruction of the unique cotton reflectance trajectory through time. This study confirms the importance of phenological metrics in improving in-season cotton fields mapping across eastern Australia. This model can be used in conjunction with other datasets to forecast yield based on the mapped crop type for improved decision making related to supply chain logistics and seasonal outlooks for production.

A Mini-Review of Ixodes Ticks Climate Sensitive Infection Dispersion Risk in the Nordic Region

Climate change in the Nordic countries is projected to lead to both wetter and warmer seasons. This, in combination with associated vegetation changes and increased animal migration, increases the potential incidence of tick-borne diseases (TBD) where already occurring, and emergence in new places. At the same time, vegetation and animal management influence tick habitat and transmission risks. In this paper, we review the literature on Ixodes ricinus, the primary vector for TBD. Current and projected distribution changes and associated disease transmission risks are related to climate constraints and climate change, and this risk is discussed in the specific context of reindeer management. Our results indicate that climatic limitations for vectors and hosts, and environmental and societal/institutional conditions will have a significant role in determining the spreading of climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) under a changing climate. Management emerges as an important regulatory "tool" for tick and/or risk for disease transfer. In particular, shrub encroachment, and pasture and animal management, are important. The results underscore the need to take a seasonal view of TBD risks, such as (1) grazing and migratory (host) animal presence, (2) tick (vector) activity, (3) climate and vegetation, and (4) land and animal management, which all have seasonal cycles that may or may not coincide with different consequences of climate change on CSI migration. We conclude that risk management must be coordinated across the regions, and with other land-use management plans related to climate mitigation or food production to understand and address the changes in CSI risks.

New satellite-based estimates show significant trends in spring phenology and complex sensitivities to temperature and precipitation at northern European latitudes

Recent climate warming has altered plant phenology at northern European latitudes, but conclusions regarding the spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate are still challenging as quantitative estimates are strongly diverging. To generate consistent estimates of broad-scale spatially continuous spring plant phenology at northern European latitudes (> 50° N) from 2000 to 2016, we used a novel vegetation index, the plant phenology index (PPI), derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. To obtain realistic and strong estimates, the phenology trends and their relationships with temperature and precipitation over the past 17 years were analyzed using a panel data method. We found that in the studied region the start of the growing season (SOS) has on average advanced by 0.30 day year^-1. The SOS showed an overall advancement rate of 2.47 day °C^-1 to spring warming, and 0.18 day cm^-1 to decreasing precipitation in spring. The previous winter and summer temperature had important effects on the SOS but were spatially heterogeneous. Overall, the onset of SOS was delayed 0.66 day °C^-1 by winter warming and 0.56 day °C^-1 by preceding summer warming. The precipitation in winter and summer influenced the SOS in a relatively weak and complex manner. The findings indicate rapid recent phenological changes driven by combined seasonal climates in northern Europe. Previously unknown spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate drivers are presented that improve our capacity to understand and foresee future climate effects on vegetation.

Quantifying the Effects of Climate and Vegetation on Soil Moisture in an Arid Area, China

Soil moisture plays a critical role in land-atmosphere interactions. Quantifying the controls on soil moisture is highly valuable for effective management of water resources and climatic adaptation. In this study, we quantified the effects of precipitation, temperature, and vegetation on monthly soil moisture variability in an arid area, China. A non-linear Granger causality framework was applied to examine the causal effects based on multi-decadal reanalysis data records. Results indicate that precipitation had effects on soil moisture in about 91% of the study area and explained up to 40% of soil moisture variability during 1982–2015. Temperature and vegetation explained up to 8.2% and 3.3% of soil moisture variability, respectively. Climatic extremes were responsible for up to 10% of soil moisture variability, and the importance of climatic extremes was low compared to that of the general climate dynamics. The time-lagged analysis shows that the effects of precipitation and temperature on soil moisture were immediate and dissipated shortly. In addition, the effects of precipitation on soil moisture decreased with the increase of precipitation, soil moisture, and elevation. This study provides deep insight for uncovering the drivers of soil moisture variability in arid regions.

Limitations and Challenges of MODIS-Derived Phenological Metrics Across Different Landscapes in Pan-Arctic Regions

Recent efforts have been made to monitor the seasonal metrics of plant canopy variations globally from space, using optical remote sensing. However, phenological estimations based on vegetation indices (VIs) in high-latitude regions such as the pan-Arctic remain challenging and are rarely validated. Nevertheless, pan-Arctic ecosystems are vulnerable and also crucial in the context of climate change. We reported the limitations and challenges of using MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements, a widely exploited set of satellite measurements, to estimate phenological transition dates in pan-Arctic regions. Four indices including normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), phenology index (PI), plant phenological index (PPI) and a MODIS Land Cover Dynamics Product MCD12Q2, were evaluated and compared against eddy covariance (EC) estimates at 11 flux sites of 102 site-years during the period from 2000 to 2014. All the indices were influenced by snow cover and soil moisture during the transition dates. While relationships existed between VI-based and EC-estimated phenological transition dates, the R2 values were generally low (0.01–0.68). Among the VIs, PPI-estimated metrics showed an inter-annual pattern that was mostly closely related to the EC-based estimations. Thus, further studies are needed to develop region-specific indices to provide more reliable estimates of phenological transition dates.

Urban spring phenology in the middle temperate zone of China: dynamics and influence factors

Urbanization and its resultant urban heat island provide a means for evaluating the impact of climate warming on vegetation phenology. To predict the possible response of vegetation phenology to rise of temperature, it is necessary to investigate factors influencing vegetation phenology in different climate zones. The start of growing season (SOS) in seven cities located in the middle temperate humid, semi-humid, semi-arid, and arid climate zones in China was extracted based on satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. The dynamics of urban SOS from 2000 to 2009 and the correlations between urban SOS and land surface temperatures (LST), precipitation, and sunshine duration, respectively, were analyzed. The results showed that there were no obvious change trends for urban SOS, and the heat island induced by urbanization can make SOS earlier in urban areas than that in adjacent rural areas. And the impact of altitude on SOS was also not negligible in regions with obvious altitude difference between urban and adjacent rural areas. Precipitation and temperature were two main natural factors influencing urban SOS in the middle temperate zone, but their impacts varied with climate zones. Only in Harbin city with lower sunshine duration in spring, sunshine duration had more significant impact than temperature and precipitation. Interference of human activities on urban vegetation was non-negligible, which can lower the dependence of urban SOS on natural climatic factors.

Climatic warming above the Arctic Circle: are there trends in timing and length of the thermal growing season in Murmansk Region (Russia) between 1951 and 2012?

Anomalies in the timing of the thermal growing season have become obvious in the NE part of Fennoscandia since 2000. They are in accordance with climatic changes reported for Europe and Fennoscandia. The actual length of the growing season reached 120 days on average, onset on 30 May and ending on 27 September (1981-2010). Shifts in the timing of the growing season and its mean prolongation by 18.5 days/62a are demonstrated for Murmansk Region (1951-2012). In this period, the onset of the growing season advanced by 7.1 days/62a, while the end was extended by 11.4 days/62a. The delay in the end of the growing season is similar to the entire Fennoscandian pattern but it has not been detected in the rest of Europe. The regional pattern of climatic regimes in Murmansk Region remained stable in comparison with earlier climatic maps (1971). However, the actual shifts in the timing of the growing season were more pronounced in colder (oceanic and mountainous) parts. Recent climatic trends could influence the retreat of the tundra zone and changes in the forest line. Losses of tundra biodiversity and enrichment of the northern taiga by southern species could be expected from present climatic trends.

Strong contribution of autumn phenology to changes in satellite-derived growing season length estimates across Europe (1982-2011)

Land Surface Phenology (LSP) is the most direct representation of intra-annual dynamics of vegetated land surfaces as observed from satellite imagery. LSP plays a key role in characterizing land-surface fluxes, and is central to accurately parameterizing terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere interactions, as well as climate models. In this article, we present an evaluation of Pan-European LSP and its changes over the past 30 years, using the longest continuous record of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) available to date in combination with a landscape-based aggregation scheme. We used indicators of Start-Of-Season, End-Of-Season and Growing Season Length (SOS, EOS and GSL, respectively) for the period 1982-2011 to test for temporal trends in activity of terrestrial vegetation and their spatial distribution. We aggregated pixels into ecologically representative spatial units using the European Landscape Classification (LANMAP) and assessed the relative contribution of spring and autumn phenology. GSL increased significantly by 18-24 days decade(-1) over 18-30% of the land area of Europe, depending on methodology. This trend varied extensively within and between climatic zones and landscape classes. The areas of greatest growing-season lengthening were the Continental and Boreal zones, with hotspots concentrated in southern Fennoscandia, Western Russia and pockets of continental Europe. For the Atlantic and Steppic zones, we found an average shortening of the growing season with hotspots in Western France, the Po valley, and around the Caspian Sea. In many zones, changes in the NDVI-derived end-of-season contributed more to the GSL trend than changes in spring green-up, resulting in asymmetric trends. This underlines the importance of investigating senescence and its underlying processes more closely as a driver of LSP and global change.