Assessing the Impact of Climate Variability on Cropland Productivity in the Canadian Prairies Using Time Series MODIS FAPAR

Rapid assessment of plant diversity using MODIS biophysical proxies

The spectral information derived from satellite data provides important inputs for assessing plant diversity. If a suitable satellite-derived biophysical proxy is applicable to assess and monitor plant diversity of different biogeographic regions will be of interest to policy makers and conservationists. We selected four biogeographic regions of India, i.e., semi-arid, Eastern Ghats, Western Ghats, and Northeast as the test sites on the basis of variations in moisture availability. The flora data collected for the study sites are the extract of the national biodiversity project 'Biodiversity Characterization at Landscape Level'. The available Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived biophysical proxies at high temporal frequencies was considered to compare the biophysical proxies: surface reflectance-red and near-infrared, normalized difference vegetation index-NDVI, enhanced vegetation index-EVI, leaf area index-LAI, and fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation-FAPAR at different temporal scales (monthly, post-monsoon, seasonal, annual) in each selected biogeographic regions of India. Generalized linear model (GLM) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) were utilized to evaluate the relationship between plant diversity and MODIS-derived biophysical proxies. MARS summarized the suitable biophysical proxies at monthly scale in descending order for the total forest area in semi-arid was red, NDVI, and FAPAR; for Eastern Ghats was EVI, FAPAR, and LAI; for Western Ghats was EVI, LAI, and FAPAR; and for Northeast was NDVI, near-infrared, and red. Furthermore, monthly FAPAR commonly found to be the suitable proxy to large scale monitoring of plant diversity in the moisture-varied biogeographic regions of India, except Northeast. Using artificial neural network, the relationship of plant diversity and monthly FAPAR/NDVI were modeled. The correlation between the predicted and reference plant diversity was found to be r = 0.56 for semi-arid, r = 0.52 for Eastern Ghats, r = 0.52 for Western Ghats and r = 0.61 for Northeast at p-value < 0.001. The study affirms that FAPAR is potentially an essential biodiversity variable (EBV) for carrying out rapid/indicative assessment of plant diversity in different biogeographic regions, and thereby, meeting various international commitments dealing with conservation and management measures for biodiversity.

Application of Google Earth Engine Cloud Computing Platform, Sentinel Imagery, and Neural Networks for Crop Mapping in Canada

The ability of the Canadian agriculture sector to make better decisions and manage its operations more competitively in the long term is only as good as the information available to inform decision-making. At all levels of Government, a reliable flow of information between scientists, practitioners, policy-makers, and commodity groups is critical for developing and supporting agricultural policies and programs. Given the vastness and complexity of Canada’s agricultural regions, space-based remote sensing is one of the most reliable approaches to get detailed information describing the evolving state of the country’s environment. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC)—the Canadian federal department responsible for agriculture—produces the Annual Space-Based Crop Inventory (ACI) maps for Canada. These maps are valuable operational space-based remote sensing products which cover the agricultural land use and non-agricultural land cover found within Canada’s agricultural extent. Developing and implementing novel methods for improving these products are an ongoing priority of AAFC. Consequently, it is beneficial to implement advanced machine learning and big data processing methods along with open-access satellite imagery to effectively produce accurate ACI maps. In this study, for the first time, the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform was used along with an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) algorithm and Sentinel-1, -2 images to produce an object-based ACI map for 2018. Furthermore, different limitations of the proposed method were discussed, and several suggestions were provided for future studies. The Overall Accuracy (OA) and Kappa Coefficient (KC) of the final 2018 ACI map using the proposed GEE cloud method were 77% and 0.74, respectively. Moreover, the average Producer Accuracy (PA) and User Accuracy (UA) for the 17 cropland classes were 79% and 77%, respectively. Although these levels of accuracies were slightly lower than those of the AAFC’s ACI map, this study demonstrated that the proposed cloud computing method should be investigated further because it was more efficient in terms of cost, time, computation, and automation.

Field-Scale Crop Seeding Date Estimation from MODIS Data and Growing Degree Days in Manitoba, Canada

Information on crop seeding date is required in many applications; such as crop management and yield forecasting. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop seeding date at the field level from time-series 250-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and growing degree days (GDD; base 5 °C; °C-days). The start of growing season (SOS) was first derived from time-series EVI2 (two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index) calculated from a MODIS 8-day composite surface reflectance product (MOD09Q1; Collection 6). Based on GDD; calculated from the Daymet gridded estimates of daily weather parameters; a simple model was developed to establish a linkage between the observed seeding date and the SOS. Calibration and validation of the model was conducted on three major crops; spring wheat; canola and oats; in the Province of Manitoba; Canada. The estimated SOS had a strong linear correlation with the observed seeding date; with a deviation of a few days depending on the year. The seeding date of the three crops can be calculated from the SOS by adjusting the number of days needed to accumulate GDD (AGDD) for emergence. The overall root-mean-square-difference (RMSD) of the estimated seeding date was less than 10 days. Validation showed that the accuracy of the estimated seeding date was crop-type independent. The developed method is useful for estimating the historical crop seeding date from remote sensing data in Canada; to support studies of the interactions among seeding date; crop management and crop yield under climate change. It is anticipated that this method can be adapted to other crops in other locations using the same or different satellite data.

The Effect of Snow Depth on Spring Wildfires on the Hulunbuir from 2001–2018 Based on MODIS

Wildfires are one of the important disturbance factors in natural ecosystems and occur frequently around the world. Detailed research on the impact of wildfires is crucial not only for the development of livestock husbandry but also for the sustainable use of natural resources. In this study, based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) burned area product MC464A1 and site snow depth measurements, the kernel density estimation method (KDE), unary linear regression analysis, Sen + Mann-Kendall trend analysis, correlation analysis, and R/S analysis were used to evaluate the relationship between snow and spring wildfires (SWFs) in Hulunbuir. Our results indicated that SWFs decreased during the period of 2001–2018, were mainly distributed in the eastern portion of the study area, and that the highest SWF density was 7 events/km2. In contrast, the maximum snow depth increased during the period of 2001–2018 and the snow depth was deeper in the middle but shallower in the east and west. The SWFs and snow depth have significant negative correlations over space and time. The snow depth mainly affects the occurrence of SWFs indirectly by affecting the land surface temperature (LST) and Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) in spring. The snow depth was positively correlated with the LSWI in most of Hulunbuir and strongly negatively correlated with the LST, and this correlation was stronger in the eastern and western regions of Hulunbuir. The results of the Hurst exponent indicated that in the future, the snow depth trend will be opposite that of the current state, meaning that the trend of decreasing snow depth will increase dramatically in most of the study area, and SWFs may become more prominent. According to the validation results, the Hurst exponent is a reliable method for predicting the snow depth tendency. This research can be based on the snow conditions of the previous year to identify areas where fires are most likely to occur, enabling an improved and more targeted preparation for spring fire prevention. Additionally, the present study expands the theory and methods of wildfire occurrence research and promotes research on disasters and disaster chains.

Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia)

We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.