Thermal Imagery-Derived Surface Inundation Modeling to Assess Flood Risk in a Flood-Pulsed Savannah Watershed in Botswana and Namibia

Understanding dynamics of population flood exposure in Canada with multiple high-resolution population datasets

In recent years, geospatial data (e.g. remote sensing imagery), and other relevant ancillary datasets (e.g. land use land cover, climate conditions) have been utilized through sophisticated algorithms to produce global population datasets. With a handful of such datasets, their performances and skill in flood exposure assessment have not been explored. This study proposes a comprehensive framework to understand the dynamics and differences in population flood exposure over Canada by employing four global population datasets alongside the census data from Statistics Canada as the reference. The flood exposure is quantified based on a set of floodplain maps (for 2015, 1 in 100-yr and 1 in 200-yr event) for Canada derived from the CaMa-Flood global flood model. To obtain further insights at the regional level, the methodology is implemented over six flood-prone River Basins in Canada. We find that about 9% (3.31 million) and 11% (3.90 million) of the Canadian population resides within 1 in 100-yr and 1 in 200-yr floodplains. We notice an excellent performance of WorldPop, and LandScan in most of the cases, which is unaffected by the representation of flood hazard, while Global Human Settlement and Gridded Population of the World showed large deviations. At last, we determined the long-term dynamics of population flood exposure and vulnerability from 2006 to 2019. Through this analysis, we also identify the regions that contain a significantly larger population exposed to floods. The relevant conclusions derived from the study highlight the need for careful selection of population datasets for preventing further amplification of uncertainties in flood risk. We recommend a detailed assessment of the severely exposed regions by including precise ground-level information. The results derived from this study may be useful not only for flood risk management but also contribute to understanding other disaster impacts on human-environment interrelationships.

Impact of Expansion Pattern of Built-Up Land in Floodplains on Flood Vulnerability: A Case Study in the North China Plain Area

Built-up land in floodplains (BLF) is a driver and a disaster-bearing body of flood risk from a socio-hydrological perspective. The relationship between BLF growth and flood vulnerability is the key to understanding and managing flood risk. However, previous studies have focused more on the relationship between BLF growth and flood exposure, ignoring flood vulnerability. We examined the BLF expansion pattern (patch size and expansion type) in the North China Plain Area from 1975 to 2014 (1975–1990–2000–2014) using GIS (geographic information system)-based landscape analysis and revealed its relationship with flood vulnerability. The results show that the BLF area experienced rapid growth (288.26%) from dispersion to coalescence. Small patches dominated the number and area of BLF growth, and edge-expansion patches were the expansion type with the most area growth. We discovered that flood vulnerability was significantly correlated with the growth in small (R = 0.36, p < 0.01), edge-expansion (R = 0.53, p < 0.01), and outlying patches (R = 0.51, p < 0.01). Large patches were not significantly correlated with flood vulnerability (R = 0.18, p > 0.1), but there was a negative trend. Infilling patch growth was significantly associated with flood vulnerability over a long period (R = 0.27, p < 0.05). In addition, we suggest nature-based soft adaptations or village merging for small patches and outlying patches. Our findings have important scientific significance for adequately understanding the interplay between BLF growth and flood risk. It has practical implications for the formulation of integrated flood risk management strategy and the sustainable development of floodplains.

Tropical Wetland (TropWet) Mapping Tool: The Automatic Detection of Open and Vegetated Waterbodies in Google Earth Engine for Tropical Wetlands

Knowledge of the location and extent of surface water and inundated vegetation is vital for a range of applications including flood risk management, biodiversity monitoring, quantifying greenhouse gas emissions, and mapping water-borne disease risk. Here, we present a new tool, TropWet, which enables users of all abilities to map wetlands in herbaceous dominated regions based on simple unmixing of optical Landsat satellite imagery in the Google Earth Engine. The results demonstrate transferability throughout the African continent with a high degree of accuracy (mean 91% accuracy, st. dev 2.6%, n = 10,800). TropWet demonstrated considerable improvements over existing globally available surface water datasets for mapping the extent of important wetlands like the Okavango, Botswana. TropWet was able to provide frequency inundation maps as an indicator of malarial mosquito aquatic habitat extent and persistence in Barotseland, Zambia. TropWet was able to map flood extent comparable to operational flood risk mapping products in the Zambezi Region, Namibia. Finally, TropWet was able to quantify the effects of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the extent of photosynthetic vegetation and wetland extent across Southern Africa. These examples demonstrate the potential for TropWet to provide policy makers with crucial information to help make national, regional, or continental scale decisions regarding wetland conservation, flood/disease hazard mapping, or mitigation against the impacts of ENSO.

Hydrometeorology and flood pulse dynamics drive diarrheal disease outbreaks and increase vulnerability to climate change in surface-water-dependent populations: A retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

The impacts of climate change on surface water, waterborne disease, and human health remain a growing area of concern, particularly in Africa, where diarrheal disease is one of the most important health threats to children under 5 years of age. Little is known about the role of surface water and annual flood dynamics (flood pulse) on waterborne disease and human health nor about the expected impact of climate change on surface-water-dependent populations.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using the Chobe River in northern Botswana, a flood pulse river-floodplain system, we applied multimodel inference approaches assessing the influence of river height, water quality (bimonthly counts of Escherichia coli and total suspended solids [TSS], 2011-2017), and meteorological variability on weekly diarrheal case reports among children under 5 presenting to health facilities (n = 10 health facilities, January 2007-June 2017). We assessed diarrheal cases by clinical characteristics and season across age groups using monthly outpatient data (January 1998-June 2017). A strong seasonal pattern was identified, with 2 outbreaks occurring regularly in the wet and dry seasons. The timing of outbreaks diverged from that at the level of the country, where surface water is largely absent. Across age groups, the number of diarrheal cases was greater, on average, during the dry season. Demographic and clinical characteristics varied by season, underscoring the importance of environmental drivers. In the wet season, rainfall (8-week lag) had a significant influence on under-5 diarrhea, with a 10-mm increase in rainfall associated with an estimated 6.5% rise in the number of cases. Rainfall, minimum temperature, and river height were predictive of E. coli concentration, and increases in E. coli in the river were positively associated with diarrheal cases. In the dry season, river height (1-week lag) and maximum temperature (1- and 4-week lag) were significantly associated with diarrheal cases. During this period, a 1-meter drop in river height corresponded to an estimated 16.7% and 16.1% increase in reported diarrhea with a 1- and 4-week lag, respectively. In this region, as floodwaters receded from the surrounding floodplains, TSS levels increased and were positively associated with diarrheal cases (0- and 3-week lag). Populations living in this region utilized improved water sources, suggesting that hydrological variability and rapid water quality shifts in surface waters may compromise water treatment processes. Limitations include the potential influence of health beliefs and health seeking behaviors on data obtained through passive surveillance.

CONCLUSIONS

In flood pulse river-floodplain systems, hydrology and water quality dynamics can be highly variable, potentially impacting conventional water treatment facilities and the production of safe drinking water. In Southern Africa, climate change is predicted to intensify hydrological variability and the frequency of extreme weather events, amplifying the public health threat of waterborne disease in surface-water-dependent populations. Water sector development should be prioritized with urgency, incorporating technologies that are robust to local environmental conditions and expected climate-driven impacts. In populations with high HIV burdens, expansion of diarrheal disease surveillance and intervention strategies may also be needed. As annual flood pulse processes are predominantly influenced by climate controls in distant regions, country-level data may be inadequate to refine predictions of climate-health interactions in these systems.

Detection of Temporary Flooded Vegetation Using Sentinel-1 Time Series Data

The C-band Sentinel-1 satellite constellation enables the continuous monitoring of the Earth’s surface within short revisit times. Thus, it provides Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) time series data that can be used to detect changes over time regardless of daylight or weather conditions. Within this study, a time series classification approach is developed for the extraction of the flood extent with a focus on temporary flooded vegetation (TFV). This method is based on Sentinel-1 data, as well as auxiliary land cover information, and combines a pixel-based and an object-oriented approach. Multi-temporal characteristics and patterns are applied to generate novel times series features, which represent a basis for the developed approach. The method is tested on a study area in Namibia characterized by a large flood event in April 2017. Sentinel-1 times series were used for the period between September 2016 and July 2017. It is shown that the supplement of TFV areas to the temporary open water areas prevents the underestimation of the flood area, allowing the derivation of the entire flood extent. Furthermore, a quantitative evaluation of the generated flood mask was carried out using optical Sentinel-2 images, whereby it was shown that overall accuracy increased by 27% after the inclusion of the TFV.