An Ensemble Prognostic Method of Francis Turbine Units Using Low-Quality Data under Variable Operating Conditions

Health status assessment of pump station units based on spatio-temporal fusion and uncertainty information

An effective health status assessment (HSA) for pump station units (PSUs) is crucial for accurately determining their real status and providing technical support for safe operational decisions. Due to the limitations of existing data-driven HSA methods, which primarily focus on the temporal dependencies of monitoring signals and fail to explore the complex interconnections among signals comprehensively. Moreover, when constructing performance degradation indices based on linear differences, these methods do not effectively integrate heterogeneous signals, resulting in an incomplete and inaccurate assessment of the overall system degradation. This paper proposes a real-time comprehensive HSA method for PSUs based on multi-source heterogeneous uncertainty information. Initially, a health benchmark model (HBM) is built using CrossGNN, which possesses cross-scale and cross-variable interaction capabilities, to precisely capture the temporal dependencies and dynamic relationships among variables in monitoring signals. Subsequently, key measurement points that reflect the operational status of the PSUs are identified through correlation analysis to establish multi-source evaluation indices. Then, considering the uncertainty in signal changes, a novel health degradation index (HDI) is developed using Mahalanobis distance (MD) and the Gaussian Cloud Model (GCM) to analyze changes in unit status. Furthermore, a weighting calculation method based on the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) is proposed to establish a real-time comprehensive health index (RCHDI) for a thorough assessment of PSUs status. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through a case study using data from a pump station in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project in China. The results show that, compared to other studies, the proposed method significantly improves the stability and smoothness of the state assessment curve, with increases of 21.5% and 47.1% respectively, providing a new perspective for comprehensively assessing the health status of PSUs.V.

Advanced Sensing, Fault Diagnostics, and Structural Health Management

Advanced sensing, fault diagnosis, and structural health management are important parts of the maintenance strategy of modern industries [...].

Study on Performance Evaluation and Prediction of Francis Turbine Units Considering Low-Quality Data and Variable Operating Conditions

The stable operation of the Francis turbine unit (FTU) determines the safety of the hydropower plant and the energy grid. The traditional FTU performance evaluation methods with a fixed threshold cannot avoid the influence of variable operating conditions. Meanwhile, anomaly samples and missing values in the low-quality on-site data distort the monitoring signals, which greatly affects the evaluation and prediction accuracy of the FTU. Therefore, an approach to the performance evaluation and prediction of the FTU considering low-quality data and variable operating conditions is proposed in this study. First, taking the variable operating conditions into consideration, a FTU on-site data-cleaning method based on DBSCAN is constructed to adaptively identify the anomaly samples. Second, the gate recurrent unit with decay mechanism (GRUD) and the Wasserstein generative adversarial network (WGAN) are combined to propose the GRUD–WGAN model for missing data imputation. Third, to reduce the impact of data randomness, the healthy-state probability model of the FTU is established based on the GPR. Fourth, the prediction model based on the temporal pattern attention–long short-term memory (TPA–LSTM) is constructed for accurate degradation trend forecasting. Ultimately, validity experiments were conducted with the on-site data set of a large FTU in production. The comparison experiments indicate that the proposed GRUD–WGAN has the highest accuracy at each data missing rate. In addition, since the cleaning and imputation improve the data quality, the TPA–LSTM-based performance indicator prediction model has great accuracy and generalization performance.