Feasibility Study of Constructing a Screening Tool for Adolescent Diabetes Detection Applying Machine Learning Methods

Development and Validation of Machine Learning Models for Identifying Prediabetes and Diabetes in Normoglycemia

BACKGROUND

Prediabetes and diabetes are both abnormal states of glucose metabolism (AGM) that can lead to severe complications. Early detection of AGM is crucial for timely intervention and treatment. However, fasting blood glucose (FBG) as a mass population screening method may fail to identify some individuals who are actually AGM but with normoglycemia. This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models to identify AGM among individuals with normoglycemia using routine health check-up indicators.

METHODS

According to the American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria, participants with normoglycemia (FBG ≤ 5.6 mmol/L) were collected from 2019 to 2023, and then divided into AGM and Normal groups using glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) 5.7% as the threshold. Data from 2019 to 2022 were divided into training and internal validation sets at a 7:3 ratio, while data from 2023 were used as the external validation set. Seven ML algorithms-including logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), extreme gradient boosting machine, multilayer perceptron (MLP), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and categorical boosting (CatBoost)-were used to build models for identifying AGM in normoglycemia population. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC) and the precision-recall curve (auPR). The feature contributions to the optimal model was visualised using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Finally, an intuitive and user-friendly interactive interface was developed.

RESULTS

A total of 59,259 participants were finally enroled in this study, and then divided into the training set of 32,810, the internal validation set of 14,060, and the external validation set of 12,389. The Catboost model outperformed the others with auROC of 0.806 and 0.794 for the internal and external validation set, respectively. Age was the most important feature influencing the performance of the CatBoost model, followed by fasting blood glucose, red blood cells, haemoglobin, body mass index, and triglyceride-glucose.

CONCLUSION

A well-performed ML model to identify AGM in the normoglycemia population was built, offering significant potential for early intervention and treatment of AGM that would otherwise have been missed.

Environmental exposures in machine learning and data mining approaches to diabetes etiology: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Environmental exposures are implicated in diabetes etiology, but are poorly understood due to disease heterogeneity, complexity of exposures, and analytical challenges. Machine learning and data mining are artificial intelligence methods that can address these limitations. Despite their increasing adoption in etiology and prediction of diabetes research, the types of methods and exposures analyzed have not been thoroughly reviewed.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to review articles that implemented machine learning and data mining methods to understand environmental exposures in diabetes etiology and disease prediction.

METHODS

We queried PubMed and Scopus databases for machine learning and data mining studies that used environmental exposures to understand diabetes etiology on September 19th, 2022. Exposures were classified into specific external, general external, or internal exposures. We reviewed machine learning and data mining methods and characterized the scope of environmental exposures studied in the etiology of general diabetes, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, and other types of diabetes.

RESULTS

We identified 44 articles for inclusion. Specific external exposures were the most common exposures studied, and supervised models were the most common methods used. Well-established specific external exposures of low physical activity, high cholesterol, and high triglycerides were predictive of general diabetes, type 2 diabetes, and prediabetes, while novel metabolic and gut microbiome biomarkers were implicated in type 1 diabetes.

DISCUSSION

The use of machine learning and data mining methods to elucidate environmental triggers of diabetes was largely limited to well-established risk factors identified using easily explainable and interpretable models. Future studies should seek to leverage machine learning and data mining to explore the temporality and co-occurrence of multiple exposures and further evaluate the role of general external and internal exposures in diabetes etiology.

Machine Learning Models for Data-Driven Prediction of Diabetes by Lifestyle Type

The prevalence of diabetes has been increasing in recent years, and previous research has found that machine-learning models are good diabetes prediction tools. The purpose of this study was to compare the efficacy of five different machine-learning models for diabetes prediction using lifestyle data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database. The 1999-2020 NHANES database yielded data on 17,833 individuals data based on demographic characteristics and lifestyle-related variables. To screen training data for machine models, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) forward propagation algorithm was utilized. For predicting diabetes, five machine-learning models (CATBoost, XGBoost, Random Forest (RF), Logistic Regression (LR), and Support Vector Machine (SVM)) were developed. Model performance was evaluated using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, F1 score, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Among the five machine-learning models, the dietary intake levels of energy, carbohydrate, and fat, contributed the most to the prediction of diabetes patients. In terms of model performance, CATBoost ranks higher than RF, LG, XGBoost, and SVM. The best-performing machine-learning model among the five is CATBoost, which achieves an accuracy of 82.1% and an AUC of 0.83. Machine-learning models based on NHANES data can assist medical institutions in identifying diabetes patients.