Sustainable Technology Analysis of Artificial Intelligence Using Bayesian and Social Network Models

Technological Convergence Assessment of the Smart Factory Using Patent Data and Network Analysis

The smart factory has evolved as a key and distinctive idea for Industry 4.0. These industries impart a significant influence on sustainable production because of their consistent industrial evolution/development. Recently, their technological advancements are deemed inevitable to survive in this competitive industry due to increasing market needs. Therefore, technological convergence analysis can provide deep insight into industrial progress and convergence. Consequently, contemporary research trends are centered on evaluating technological convergence. Although various studies are already available on the technological development of the smart factory concerning Industry 4.0, however far less significant work is available on the technological convergence assessment of the smart factory by employing data networks and patents. Therefore, this work is focused on the investigation of reliable data analysis of the smart factory’s technologies and its technological convergence. This said methodology assisted in examining the network’s hidden linkages using network analysis. A relevant case study of a smart factory is also discussed to evaluate its technological convergence. Thus, data-driven technologies have diverted focus from International Patent Classification (IPC) visual networks using convergence assessment tools. The findings of this study are intended to aid companies and government officials in forecasting future sustainable technological developments and decision making.

The Short-Term Forecasting of Asymmetry Photovoltaic Power Based on the Feature Extraction of PV Power and SVM Algorithm

To improve forecasting accuracy for photovoltaic (PV) power output, this paper proposes a hybrid method for forecasting the short-term PV power output. First, by introducing the noise level, an improved complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) is developed to determine the ensemble size and amplitude of the added white noise adaptively. ICEEMDAN can change PV power output with non-symmetry into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with symmetry. ICEEMDAN can enhance the forecasting accuracy for PV power by IMFs with physical meaning (not including spurious modes). Second, the selection method of relative modes (IF), which is determined by the comprehensive factor, including the shape factor, crest factor and Kurtosis, is introduced to adaptively classify the IMFs into groups including similar fluctuating components. The IF can avoid the drawbacks of threshold determination by an empirical method. Third, the modified particle swarm optimization (PSO) (MPSO) is proposed to optimize the hyper-parameters in the support vector machine (SVM) by introducing the piecewise inertial weight. MPSO can improve the global and local search ability to make the particles traverse the global space and strengthen the performance of local convergence. Finally, the proposed method (ICEEMDAN-IF-MPSO-SVM) is used to forecast the PV power output of each group individually, and then, the single forecasting result is reconstructed to obtain the desired forecasting result for PV power output. By comparison with the other typical methods, the proposed method is more suitable for forecasting PV power output.

Patent Data Analysis of Artificial Intelligence Using Bayesian Interval Estimation

Technology analysis is one of the important tasks in technology and industrial management. Much information about technology is contained in the patent documents. So, patent data analysis is required for technology analysis. The existing patent analyses relied on the quantitative analysis of the collected patent documents. However, in the technology analysis, expert prior knowledge should also be considered. In this paper, we study the patent analysis method using Bayesian inference which considers prior experience of experts and likelihood function of patent data at the same time. For keyword data analysis, we use Bayesian predictive interval estimation with count data distributions such as Poisson. Using the proposed models, we forecast the future trends of technological keywords of artificial intelligence (AI) in order to know the future technology of AI. We perform a case study to provide how the proposed method can be applied to real areas. In this paper, we retrieve the patent documents related to AI technology, and analyze them to find the technological trend of AI. From the results of AI technology case study, we can find which technological keywords are more important or critical in the entire structure of AI industry. The existing methods for patent keyword analysis were depended on the collected patent documents at present. But, in technology analysis, the prior knowledge by domain experts is as important as the collected patent documents. So, we propose a method based on Bayesian inference for technology analysis using the patent documents. Our method considers the patent data analysis with the prior knowledge from domain experts.

Artificial Intelligence-Enhanced Decision Support for Informing Global Sustainable Development: A Human-Centric AI-Thinking Approach

Sustainable development is crucial to humanity. Utilization of primary socio-environmental data for analysis is essential for informing decision making by policy makers about sustainability in development. Artificial intelligence (AI)-based approaches are useful for analyzing data. However, it was not easy for people who are not trained in computer science to use AI. The significance and novelty of this paper is that it shows how the use of AI can be democratized via a user-friendly human-centric probabilistic reasoning approach. Using this approach, analysts who are not computer scientists can also use AI to analyze sustainability-related EPI data. Further, this human-centric probabilistic reasoning approach can also be used as cognitive scaffolding to educe AI-Thinking in the analysts to ask more questions and provide decision making support to inform policy making in sustainable development. This paper uses the 2018 Environmental Performance Index (EPI) data from 180 countries which includes performance indicators covering environmental health and ecosystem vitality. AI-based predictive modeling techniques are applied on 2018 EPI data to reveal the hidden tensions between the two fundamental dimensions of sustainable development: (1) environmental health; which improves with economic growth and increasing affluence; and (2) ecosystem vitality, which worsens due to industrialization and urbanization.

Bayesian Structural Time Series and Regression Modeling for Sustainable Technology Management

Many companies take the sustainability of their technologies very seriously, because companies with sustainable technologies are better able to survive in the market. Thus, sustainable technology analysis is important issue in management of technology (MOT). In this paper, we study the management of sustainable technology (MOST). This focuses on the sustainable technology in various MOT fields. In the MOST, sustainable technology analysis is dependent on time periods. We propose a method of sustainable technology analysis using a Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model based on time series data. In addition, we use the Bayesian regression to find the relational structure between technologies. To show the performance of our method and how the method can be applied to practical works, we carry out a case study using the patent data related to artificial intelligence technologies.

Sustainable Technology Analysis Using Data Envelopment Analysis and State Space Models

To find sustainable technology in various areas, we propose an analytical methodology based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the state space model (SSM). DEA is an analytical method used to compare the efficiencies and performances of several items. In DEA, for sustainable technology analysis, the items of DEA can be the technological keywords or international patent classification (IPC) codes in patent documents. In this paper, the proposed method is used to find the relative performance of different patent keywords using comparison and evaluation. We apply this methodology to compare the technological efficiencies between patent keywords for sustainable technology analysis. We apply the additive model and directional distance function of DEA to develop the proposed methodology for building the technological structure of target technology. In addition, we forecast the future trend of target technology using the SSM and find the area of sustainable technology by its result. The SSM is well suited for time series forecasting on technology analysis. We extract the IPC codes from patent documents for the SSM. In our research, we combine the results of DEA and the SSM to find the area of technological sustainability. To illustrate the validity and performance of our research, we conduct a case study using the patent documents used and registered by Apple.

Bayesian Count Data Modeling for Finding Technological Sustainability

Technology developments change society, and society demands new and innovative technology developments. We analyze technology to understand society and technology itself. Much research related to technology analysis has been introduced in various fields. Most of it has been on patent analysis. This is because detailed and accurate results of research and development are patented. In this paper, we study a new patent analysis method based on the count data model and Bayesian regression analysis. Using the count data model, we analyzed the technological keywords extracted from the collected patent documents. We used the prior distribution of Bayesian statistics to reflect the experience and knowledge of the relevant technological experts in the analysis model. Moreover, we applied the proposed model to find sustainable technologies. Finding and developing sustainable technologies is an important activity for companies and research institutes to maintain their technological competitiveness. To illustrate how our modeling could be applied to real domains, we carried out a case study using the patent documents related to artificial intelligence.