Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Pension Plan in China: The Role of Fertility Policy Adjustment and Retirement Delay

The impact of retirement on body mass index in China: An empirical study based on regression discontinuity design

An aging population is an important trend of social development, and it will be China's basic national condition for a long time. However, the pressure on domestic pension payments and economic operations will increase daily. The delayed retirement policy is gradually implemented as a critical initiative to improve capital and labor force allocation. The impact of retirement on residents' Body Mass Index (BMI) and weight has become a focus issue. This paper investigates the mechanism of the impact of retirement on residents' BMI using microdata from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) 2018, combined with a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to measure the potential health impact of China's current retirement policy on residents. The study finds that: (1) Retirement has a significant negative effect on BMI for women, with retirement leading to a significantly increased risk of deviation from normal BMI levels and significantly increasing the weight of retired women. However, retirement does not have a significant effect on men. (2) Retirement policies affect residents' BMI to different degrees depending on their family size, with the negative effect on women being more pronounced in smaller family sizes. (3) Female residents who retire to help their children with intergenerational care are more likely to maintain normal BMI levels, significantly positively affecting their potential health. (4) Retirement negatively affects BMI through channels such as significantly reducing exercise frequency among female residents. The study demonstrates that retirement policy impacts the BMI and weight of female residents, so the formulation and implementation of delayed retirement policy should be flexible, and family factors such as family sizes and intergenerational care should be considered appropriately.

Is China's Enterprise Employees' Basic Pension Plan Sustainable? Evidence from Two Northeastern Provinces in the Double-Drop Era

In 2019, the Chinese central government adopted the "double-drop" policy (to reduce both the rate and the base of employers' contributions to employees' basic pension plan) as an attempt to increase overall employment and plan coverage in the national labor market and, in turn, achieve a balance in the plan's annual contributions and benefits at the provincial level. Accordingly, we utilize the cohort element method and actuarial models to explore the policy's effects on the plan's financial sustainability in both the short and long term based on data from Heilongjiang and Liaoning provinces in northeastern China. We further examine the policy's indirect effects (through changes in the compliance rate, enterprises' overall employment rate, coverage rates, or economic growth rates) on the plan's sustainability using the circulation substitution method. We find that, although the policy directly reduces employer contributions, it indirectly improves the plan's balance between contributions and benefits through changes in employment, coverage, compliance, or economic growth rates. Nevertheless, the overall effect of the policy is far weaker than its negative effect. Hence, we provide a portfolio of solutions that includes increases in provincial governments' subsidies (to approximately 8% of total fiscal expenditures), increases in the central government's adjustment proportion (to 11%-15%), and delays in the retirement age (progressively to age 65).

Chronic patients as retirement-aged workers: the impact of employment-based health insurance and chronic conditions on health-related working capacity and late-life career participation

Retirement-aged workers with chronic conditions are increasingly engaged in late-life careers in the policy context of delayed retirement initiative. However, it remains uncertain as to how chronic conditions and employment-based social health insurance interact to affect health-related working capacity and late career participation in this group of people. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and the discrete choice model, this study finds that chronic conditions are negatively associated with health-related working capacity (- 0.400, p < 0.01) and late-life career participation (- 0.170, p < 0.01). Employment-based health insurance is positively associated with health-related working capacity of retirement-aged workers (0.432, p < 0.01), but is negatively associated with their late-life career participation (- 1.027, p < 0.01). Moreover, employment-based health insurance could weaken the negative associations between chronic conditions and health-related working capacity (interaction = 0.285, p < 0.05) and late-life career participation (interaction = 0.251, p < 0.05). More fine-grained policies for delayed retirement are needed to focus on the long-neglected health of retirement-aged workers with chronic conditions.

Official tenure and governance effectiveness of China's basic pension insurance system: An inverted U-shaped curve

Objectives

Based on incentive theory of motivation, this paper aims to estimate China's basic pension insurance's annual efficiency and inter-period efficiency changes from 2015 to 2019 and further examine the relationship between official tenure and basic pension insurance governance performance.

Methods

The DEA-BCC model was used to evaluate the operating efficiency of basic pension insurance in 31 provinces of China. And four panel Tobit models were constructed to examine the heterogeneous linkages between officials' tenure and governance efficiency in different regions of China.

Results

The results showed that there was an inverted U-shaped relationship between the official tenure and the governance efficiency of basic pension insurance. The younger an official was in his current position, the more apparent the inverted U-shaped relationship between the tenure of an official and the governance efficiency of basic pension insurance. We also found that localized government officials showed better governance efficiency of basic pension insurance. However, as the term of office of officials increased, the governance efficiency of non-localized officials showed a steeper negative effect.

Conclusion

This study firstly reveals a significant relationship between the characteristics of officials and the operation of China's basic pension insurance system, which is a complement to the study of China's basic pension systems.

The interaction of delayed retirement initiative and the multilevel social health insurance system on physical health of older people in China

With many social challenges posed by an ageing population, the delayed retirement initiative has received wide attention from policymakers. However, China's current multi-level social health insurance system seems not perfect and not ready for the delayed retirement initiative. The public are generally concerned that the benefits of late retirees cannot be well guaranteed. Using data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and the chorological design (CHARLS-2015 and -2018 waves), this study finds that (1) late retirement could be beneficial for physical health among older adults; (2) there have disparities between the effects of different social health insurances on physical health among older adults; (3) social health insurances could weaken the benefits of late retirement to physical health among older adults. Results imply that China's current multi-level social medical insurance system may lag behind the proposed delayed retirement initiative and have policy limitations for late retirees.

Measurement and Evaluation of the Operating Efficiency of China's Basic Pension Insurance: Based on Three-Stage DEA Model

Purpose

This paper aims to measure the operating efficiency of China’s basic pension insurance from 2014 to 2019 in 31 provinces.

Methods

The three-stage DEA model was used to evaluate the operating efficiency of basic pension insurance in 31 provinces.

Results

On the whole, the operating efficiency of China’s basic pension insurance was at a high level, but there was still room for improvement. GDP, urbanization level and scale of government public expenditure had a positive impact on the operating efficiency of regional basic pension insurance. In contrast, the old-age dependency ratio had a significant negative effect. There were noticeable regional differences in the operating efficiency of China’s basic pension insurance, which showed a pattern of Central (0.742) >Eastern (0.689) >Western (0.505) after removing the influence of environmental variables.

Conclusion

This study systematically analyzes the impact of external environmental regulations on China’s basic pension insurance’s operating efficiency and provides decision-making references for further improving the operating efficiency of China’s basic pension insurance. In order to further optimize the allocation of basic endowment insurance, this paper proposes the following countermeasures and suggestions: (1) broaden investment channels and improve the investment efficiency; (2) increase supervision of social security departments and strengthen information disclosure; (3) unify the management of social basic pension insurance.

Challenges and Sustainability of China’s Socio-Economic Stability in the Context of Its Demographic Development

Like many developed countries in the world, China currently faces many serious demographic challenges that pose a potential risk to the country’s socio-economic development and stability. The current demographic development and trend is characterized by a change in the reproductive behavior of the population, characterized by a decline in birth rates, a change in family behavior, and a shift in the value system. This paper is aimed at identifying the impact of population policy and the degree of its influence on both the economic and social system of the country. Based on a deterministic approach, the findings reveal and demonstrate the serious demographic challenges facing China, and we are noting that there is no guarantee that parametric adjustments, such as shifting the retirement age, will de facto ensure the financial health of the pension system by preventing bankruptcy. We point out the risks and prospects for the sustainability of China’s socio-economic development based on an analysis of past and current Chinese demographic policy.

Assessment of the Financial Sustainability of China’s New Rural Pension Plan: Does the Demographic Policy Reform Matter?

Rural China is experiencing a rapid aging process caused by low fertility and large-scale rural-to-urban migration, which will place an increasing payment burden on the rural pension plan. To allay the negative impact of the aging transition, China has recently carried out a demographic policy reform, replacing the famous one-child policy with the two-child policy. This paper evaluates the impacts of the demographic policy reform on the financial sustainability of China’s New Rural Pension Plan (NRPP). By applying the cohort component population projection method and building actuarial models, the solvency sustainability of the NRPP between 2019 and 2080 is estimated under six demographic policy scenarios, followed by sensitivity analysis. The simulation results show that under the one-child policy, the current and the accumulated pension fund would run deficits in 2030 and 2042, and then the pension deficits would expand rapidly. The two-child policy would relieve the pension pressure moderately before 2075, but thereafter, the pension deficits would become much worse. Sensitivity analysis of a series of demographics and pension parameters on the financial sustainability of the NRPP are displayed. On average, the long-term pension gap may not be avoided for the NRPP, regardless of raising the contribution rate, delaying the retirement age, or encouraging people to have more children.

Stochastically Assessing the Financial Sustainability of Individual Accounts in the Urban Enterprise Employees’ Pension Plan in China

Various countries are paying increasing attention to the long-term financial sustainability of pension plans, and the self-balancing ability of such plans is an important index to measure their long-term financial sustainability. This paper explores the financial self-balancing ability of the individual accounts of China’s urban enterprise employees’ pension plan (UEEPPI). In the particularly serious scenario that the individual accounts’ previous accumulated funds are zero, the bookkeeping rate and the investment return rate are considered as stochastic variables in the in-depth analysis of the self-balancing ability of individual accounts, and the effects of two different bookkeeping behaviors are compared. The results indicate that if the government adopts the fixed bookkeeping rate, the individual accounts have an excellent self-balancing ability. If the government adopts a stochastic bookkeeping rate, it can further improve the self-balancing ability of individual accounts. Sensitivity analysis finds that the increase in the wage growth rate can improve the self-balancing ability of individual accounts, but the impact of contribution rate of individual accounts and the contribution wages of recruits create uncertainty. Based on the conclusions, some policy implications are proposed.