Are We Objective? A Study into the Effectiveness of Risk Measurement in the Water Industry

Identifying Risks for Better Project Management between Two Different Cultures: The Chinese and the Spanish

Business globalization causes all project managers, sooner or later, to face the challenge of understanding cultural differences. Identifying the risks associated with these differences has become an essential task today when discussing international projects. This paper shows how to improve the management of projects carried out in China by Spanish organizations, identifying risks related to differences between societies. To determine this set of risks, the cultural dimensions of Hofstede and Meyer were analyzed for the case of China and Spain, as well as the most critical values of the World Value Survey between both cultures. From there, and thanks to work done with a focus group formed of 29 Spanish project managers who are experienced in working in projects developed in China, risks were identified and classified into categories considering cultural dimensions. The results obtained show a record of risks of great interest for organizations working in international contexts, mainly in China. They reveal, in addition, the importance of considering this type of risks related to cultural differences, which have rarely been treated before.

Is too much personal dread stifling alternative pathways to improving urban water security?

Despite an ongoing dire prognosis of the state of water resources, water practitioners maintain their traditional approaches to water planning. Alternative water projects to those that are considered 'business-as-usual' are not contemplated despite the threats posed by increasing urbanisation and climate change. Previous studies in psychological perceptions of risk in other fields have found that the personal feelings of risk practitioners, particularly feelings of dread, have had a significant impact on risk perceptions, an element known to be affecting decision-making of an individual. Could a similar trend exist in the water sector? We consider the decision-making process of 77 water practitioners in Melbourne Australia, to determine their personal biases and attitudes towards these alternative water pathways. In particular, this study assesses the impact of cognitive bias on reported risk scores in the water sector. Utilising pre-validated risk psychology survey methodology ( Slovic et al, 1985), psychometric testing was conducted to determine the influences that guide their personal risk perceptions, and in turn, their decision-making processes. It was concluded that 'Dread' plays a key role in the variation of risk scores between the participants that were evaluated. Furthermore, variables such as 'Fear of the Unknown' and 'Dread related to perceived fatal risk' where also found to be statistically significant factors in the link between risk scores and cognitive bias. These findings are critical in water planning, as a feeling of dread may be driving up risk scores, thus reducing the chances of establishing alternative water projects.

Critical Risks Method (CRM): A New Safety Allocation Approach for a Critical Infrastructure

In the current research, a safety allocation technique named the Critical Risks Method (CRM) has been developed. Starting from a literature review, we analyzed the shortcomings of conventional methods. The outcomes show the primary two criticalities of the most important safety allocation approaches: (1) They are developed for series configuration, but not for parallel ones; (2) they ordinarily give only qualitative outputs, but not quantitative ones. Moreover, by applying the conventional methods, an increase in safety of the units to ensure the safety target leads to an increase of the production costs of the units. The proposed strategy can overcome the shortcomings of traditional techniques with a safety approach useful to series–parallel systems in order to obtain quantitative outputs in terms of failures in a year. The CRM considers six factors that are able to ensure its applicability to a great variety of critical infrastructures. In addition, CRM is described by a simply analytic definition. The CRM was applied to a critical infrastructure (Liquid Nitrogen Cooling Installation) in a nuclear plant designed with series–parallel units. By comparing the CRM outputs with databank safety values, the proposed method was validated.

Application of Reliability Analysis for Risk Ranking in a Levee Reconstruction Project

Levees are embankments designed for passive flood protection. In order to reduce the potential of climate-induced flooding risks, it is necessary to reconstruct or upgrade the existing levees. Flood risk management aims to reduce the probability of floods and their potential adverse effects on the population, economy, and environment. This paper presents the novel application of reliability analysis for risk ranking in the Otok Virje-Brezje levee reconstruction project in the Republic of Croatia. To identify, verify and analyse key risks, a group of 35 experts, who were directly involved in the levee reconstruction project or have extensive experience in similar projects, was selected. An Analytic network process (ANP) was used for group multi criteria decision-making. Quantitative and qualitative approaches to risk analysis were combined. Different experts from the various organisations may have diverse interests and goals. The geometric mean method was chosen to reach group consensus. The resources that will be allocated to the risk responses are proportional to the risk exposures. To analyse the reliability of the group consensus-reaching method a determination of the risk ranking probability matrix is proposed by using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Different decision-making approaches are proposed for cases in which consensus is not reached with satisfactory reliability.