Socioeconomic Development, Demographic Dynamics and Forest Fires in Italy, 1961–2017: A Time-Series Analysis

Trends in Forest Fire Occurrence in the Ilmensky Nature Reserve, Southern Urals, Russia, between 1948 and 2014

We analyzed the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of 1083 forest fires within the Ilmensky Reserve (Southern Urals, Russia) over 1948–2014. We observed a significant increase in the number of forest fires over the studied period, with the locations of the most frequently burned sections of the reserve changing over time. The average number of fires over the whole period increased by a factor of 1.9; there were 0.41 fires per compartment per 10 years in 1948–1970, there were 0.58 fires per compartment per 10 years in 1971–1990, and there were 0.77 fires per compartment per 10 years in 1991–2014. In parallel, the spatial pattern of ignitions became more aggregated. The fire frequency increased across the reserve, with the most pronounced change being observed along the reserve borders. Human-related fires dominate the modern fire activity within the Ilmensky Reserve, which is modulated by the local conditions.

Human Activity Affects Forest Fires: The Impact of Anthropogenic Factors on the Density of Forest Fires in Poland

Forest fires, due to climate change, are a growing threat to human life, health, and property, especially in temperate climates. Unfortunately, the impact of individual factors on forest fires varies, depending on the geographical region and its natural and socio-economic conditions. The latter are rarely introduced into fire warning systems, which significantly reduces their effectiveness. Therefore, the main goal of this study was to quantify the impact of a wide range of anthropogenic factors on forest fires, using Poland as a representative example of a Central European country. Data were analyzed in relation to districts for the period 2007–2017, using correlation analysis and regression modeling applying global and local/mixed regression methods. It was found that almost all of the 28 variables taken for analysis significantly determined the density of forest fires, but the greatest role was played by the length of the border between forests and built-up areas, and road density. In addition, the impact of most of the analyzed variables on forest fires varied over the study area, so implementing non-stationarity in geographically weighted regression models significantly improved the goodness-of-fit compared to global models.

Spatial Assessment of Wildfires Susceptibility in Santa Cruz (Bolivia) Using Random Forest

Wildfires are expected to increase in the near future, mainly because of climate changes and land use management. One of the most vulnerable areas in the world is the forest in central-South America, including Bolivia. Despite that this country is highly prone to wildfires, literature is rather limited here. To fill this gap, we implemented a dataset including the burned area that occurred in the department of Santa Cruz in the period of 2010–2019, and the digital spatial data describing the predisposing factors (i.e., topography, land cover, ecoregions). The main goal was to develop a model, based on Random Forest, in which probabilistic outputs allowed to elaborate wildfires susceptibility maps. The overall accuracy was finally estimated by using 5-fold cross-validation. In addition, the last three years of observations acted as the testing dataset, allowing to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. The quantitative assessment of the variables revealed that “flooded savanna” and “shrub or herbaceous cover, flooded, fresh/saline/brakish water” are respectively the ecoregions and land cover classes with the highest probability of predicting wildfires. This study contributes to the development and validation of an innovative mapping tool for fire risk assessment, implementable at a regional scale in different areas of the globe.

Forest Area Changes in Cinque Terre National Park in the Last 80 Years. Consequences on Landslides and Forest Fire Risks

Cinque Terre, one of the most important Italian cultural landscapes, has not been spared from depopulation and agricultural abandonment processes, that involved many rural areas in Europe, as a consequence of socio-economic transformations that occurred after WWII. Depopulation of rural areas, especially in mountains or in terraced areas, caused significant environmental consequences, such as the decrease of biodiversity, the landscape homogenization, the increase of hydrogeological and forest fires risks. Cinque Terre National Park (5TNP) was established in 1999, and, differently from other Italian National Parks, not just for protecting natural habitats, but mainly to preserve, restore and valorize the historical terraced landscape. Moreover, the area is a UNESCO cultural landscape site and it is partly protected by three Sites of Community Importance. The research intended to investigate the transformations that have affected forested areas inside the 5TNP in the period 1936–2018, also highlighting the connections with hydrogeological and forest fires risks, as a support for the Park planning strategies and the conservation of the UNESCO site. Results highlighted that 37% of the current forests are the consequence of dry stones terraces abandonment that occurred in the twentieth century, with negative effects on the stability of steep slopes, hydrogeological risk, forest fires and on the conservation of a unique cultural landscape. This confirms the current national trend showing no deforestation occurring, but rather a continuous increase of forests on abandoned land. While 5TNP policies and actions are effectively aimed at pursuing an equilibrium between cultivated areas and forests, the Sites of Community Importance located inside the Park mainly focuses on the conservation of “natural habitats”, even if the current vegetation is also the result of secondary successions on former cultivated land. The research highlighted the need to valorize “cultural values” in forest planning as well as the importance of forest history for an accurate planning of forest resources in protected areas.

Application of the Socio-Ecological System Framework to Forest Fire Risk Management: A Systematic Literature Review

Although increasing concern about climate change has raised awareness of the fundamental role of forest ecosystems, forests are threatened by human-induced impacts worldwide. Among them, wildfire risk is clearly the result of the interaction between human activities, ecological domains, and climate. However, a clear understanding of these interactions is still needed both at the global and local levels. Numerous studies have proven the validity of the socioecological system (SES) approach in addressing this kind of interdisciplinary issue. Therefore, a systematic review of the existing literature on the application of SES frameworks to forest ecosystems is carried out, with a specific focus on wildfire risk management. The results demonstrate the existence of different methodological approaches that can be grouped into seven main categories, which range from qualitative analysis to quantitative spatially explicit investigations. The strengths and limitations of the approaches are discussed, with a specific reference to the geographical setting of the works. The research suggests the importance of local community involvement and local knowledge consideration in wildfire risk management. This review provides a starting point for future research on forest SES and a supporting tool for the development of a sustainable wildfire risk adaptation and mitigation strategy.

On the complexity of fire dinamics at the wildland-urban interface

Complexity is the main feature of many fire-prone environments, in which the fire regime is driven by climate and socio-economic development on short and long timescales. In this study, the interaction between social and forest environments is modelled for the first time by assimilating socio-economic assets to a new flammable species with its own dynamics. This is a completely new approach that offers a new perspective to interpret shifts in fire regimes. The ten-years fire regime trend observed in Italy between 1970 and 2018, according to the model results, may be attributed to a progressive change of land use and inhabited development. The introduction of a new species adds complexity to fire dynamics and modifies the self-regulating Mediterranean forest fire regime. The results evidence that the evolution of a mosaic of natural and man-managed tiles of land may erase the "natural" chaotic fire regime, exacerbate fire frequency and increase fire risk in inhabited areas.

Reducing Wooden Structure and Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Disaster Risk through Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management

In recent years, severe and deadly wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires have resulted in an increased focus on this particular risk to humans and property, especially in Canada, USA, Australia, and countries in the Mediterranean area. Also, in areas not previously accustomed to wildfires, such as boreal areas in Sweden, Norway, and in the Arctic, WUI fires have recently resulted in increasing concern. January 2014, the most severe wooden town fire in Norway since 1923 raged through Lærdalsøyri. Ten days later, a wildfire raged through the scattered populated community of Flatanger and destroyed even more structures. These fires came as a surprise to the fire brigades and the public. We describe and analyze a proposed way forward for exploring if and how this increasing fire incidence can be linked to concomitant changes in climate, land-use, and habitat management; and then aim at developing new dynamic adaptive fire risk assessment and management tools. We use coastal Norway as an example and focus on temporal changes in fire risk in wooden structure settlements and in the Norwegian Calluna vulgaris L. dominated WUI. In this interface, the fire risk is now increasing due to a combination of land-use changes, resulting in large areas of early successional vegetation with an accumulation of biomass, and the interactive effects of climatic changes resulting in increased drought risk. We propose a novel bow-tie framework to explore fire risk and preventive measures at various timescales (years, months, weeks, hours) as a conceptual model for exploring risk contributing factors and possibilities for risk management. Ignition is the top event of the bow-tie which has the potential development towards a fire disaster as a worst case outcome. The bow-tie framework includes factors such as changes in the built environment and natural habitat fuel moisture content due to the weather conditions, WUI fuel accumulation, possibly improved ecosystem management, contribution by civic prescribed burner groups, relevant fire risk modeling, and risk communication to the fire brigades and the public. We propose an interdisciplinary research agenda for developing this framework and improving the current risk understanding, risk communication, and risk management. This research agenda will represent important contributions in paving the road for fire disaster prevention in Norway, and may provide a model for other systems and regions.

Towards Local Forms of Sprawl: A Brief Reflection on Mediterranean Urbanization

Urban sprawl is a complex phenomenon that requires a comprehensive reflection on the most significant patterns and underlying processes. While the “sprawl” notion parallels hegemonic concepts such as economic competitiveness, social cohesion, and polycentric development, an integrated analysis of sprawl patterns and processes in paradigmatic socioeconomic contexts is increasingly required to reconcile different disciplinary visions, contributing to a holistic interpretation of metropolitan change. At the same time, sprawl is an increasingly evident product of local socioeconomic contexts all over the world. A comprehensive investigation of multifaceted, form–function relationships underlying sprawl—based on a quali-quantitative analysis of representative cases—is a crucial pre-requisite of both monitoring and policy actions at multiple spatial scales, from urban/regional to national/continental levels. The present contribution proposes a contextualization of the sprawl notion in Southern Europe—a socioeconomic context characterized by compact and continuous urbanization for a long time. An integrated approach based on a visual analysis of urban and peri-urban landscapes—integrated with an extended literature survey—allows for a definition of a specific sprawl model in Southern Europe, sharing some features with the United States ideal type of sprawl and showing peculiarities with respect to common models of urban dispersion typical of Northern and Western Europe. Policies aimed at containing urban dispersion may definitely benefit from a local-based definition of sprawl, considering the specificity of form–function relationships and the underlying socioeconomic context.