Comparative Analysis between Hydrous Ethanol and Gasoline C Pricing in Brazilian Retail Market

Induction of a Consumption Pattern for Ethanol and Gasoline in Brazil

Historically, carbon dioxide emissions from transport have been a globally discussed and analyzed problem. The adoption of flex fuel vehicles designed to run ethanol–gasoline blends is important to mitigate these emissions. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the ethanol–gasoline price ratio on different vehicle models, and discuss the opportunities to increase ethanol consumption from this perspective. Our analysis shows that the use of a unique fuel economy ratio for all flex–fuel vehicles in the country significantly reduces the opportunity of some customers to purchase hydrous ethanol. The paper also discusses possible actions to provide adequate information that may increase the possibility of fuelling vehicles with a high-level ethanol blend.

Relative Prices of Ethanol-Gasoline in the Major Brazilian Capitals: An Analysis to Support Public Policies

The use of biomass as an energy source has advanced in recent decades, given the scientific evidence that it is a solution to the environmental problems faced globally. In this context, biofuels derived from biomass have a prominent role. Among the countries where this alternative is the most promising, Brazil stands out, just behind the USA. It is, therefore, necessary to assess whether such a replacement is economically viable. For such an assessment, the behavior of the relative price of bioethanol/gasoline is crucial. In the present work, the degree of temporal persistence of relative prices, considering the existence of shocks to which they are exposed, is evaluated, considering 15 important Brazilian capitals, via the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). The degree of correlation is also evaluated through the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) between fuel prices in São Paulo, the capital of the most populous state and main producer of bioethanol, with the capitals of the 14 states selected for the analysis. The period of analysis takes place between 2004 and 2020. The use of DCCA with sliding windows was recently proposed and we also evaluate DFA dynamically in this way, and this, together with an extended sample in the context of Brazilian fuel prices, represents the main innovations of the present work. We found that the degree of persistence varies significantly depending on the capitals analyzed, which means that price variations are localized and demand regional stimulus policies. Furthermore, it was found that the correlation with São Paulo is less intense in the most geographically distant capitals. Such evidence is important and complementary to infer how integrated the national bioethanol market is, in order to support public policies aimed at its consolidation.

Analysis of Hydrous Ethanol Price Competitiveness after the Implementation of the Fossil Fuel Import Price Parity Policy in Brazil

Competition is a relevant element in any open economy. Public policies are necessary to induce economic efficiency and to create conditions to preserve or stimulate a competitive environment. This paper aims to assess the competitiveness of hydrous ethanol price in a period of political, social and economic crises, in 15 Brazilian state capitals between the years 2012 and 2019. We compared the ethanol–gasoline price ratio behavior in two different periods, before and after the import parity price policy implemented by Petrobras in 2016. Mann–Whitney and Levene’s tests, two non-parametric statistical methods, were applied to verify significant changes between these periods. The implementation of changes in Petrobras’ pricing policy from 2016 onwards caused a statistically significant increase in the ratio coefficient of variation in two-thirds of the distribution market and more than the half of analyzed retail markets. Second, overall, the cities that showed statistically significant changes in the median and coefficient of variation in the distribution market price ratio were followed by the retail market. Our findings suggest that government interventions in the fuel and byproduct final selling prices to distributors negatively impact competition between companies that are part of the fuel distribution and retail chain, also affecting the sale of biofuels in Brazil and discouraging the initiatives to use renewable fuels to reduce the emission of pollutants.

Sustainable urban mobility analysis for elderly and disabled people in São Paulo

The Brazilian Urban Mobility Policy integrates urban transport with traffic planning, establishing appropriate public policies that indicate the need for a safe and accessible public transport system. The major challenge is the inclusion of the elderly and people with disabilities. In this paper, we quantify the impact of rainfall on the number of people with disabilities and elderly people who use the public bus transportation system for accessibility in the first and last miles in the city of São Paulo. The proposed methodology is used to evaluate the co-movements between the time series of free-fare users and rainfall in São Paulo. The findings confirm the hypothesis that significant rainfall causes a reduction in the number of daily free-fare passengers who use the public bus system in São Paulo.

Quantifying the Predictability and Efficiency of the Cointegrated Ethanol and Agricultural Commodities Price Series

Ethanol is an energy commodity and a biofuel that has contributed to mitigate the use of fossil fuels. Nonetheless, the environmental benefits derived from the use of ethanol can occur at the expense of the agricultural commodities prices, affecting their volatilities and efficiency. This problem occurs because most of the raw materials currently used to produce biofuels, such as corn in the US, sugarcane in Brazil and oilseeds in Europe, are also important global commodities. This work adopts several mathematical tools, namely the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, fractal dimension, and the Hurst and Lyapunov exponents. This set of tools measures the market efficiency and the prices’ predictability for the ethanol and some agriculture commodities that revealed price transmission (cointegration), in a previous work. The results show that, in general, the ethanol has a lower predictability horizon than the other commodities. Moreover, it is discussed a quantitative measure to assess the market performance, by means of the efficiency index. We observe that the ethanol efficiency is similar to the other agricultural commodities evaluated.