Spatially Explicit Assessment of Social Vulnerability in Coastal China

Investigating socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change via remote sensing and a data-driven ranking algorithm

The necessity for extensive historical data, variables, and weight determination still presents challenges and complexity, notwithstanding the growth in research on socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change. In order to fill in these gaps, this study used China's Fujian Province as a case study to propose a unique strategic approach for studying socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change from 2000 to 2020 by utilizing remote sensing and the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In a GIS scenario, this method employs a comprehensive framework with a wide variety of indicators and a data-driven ranking algorithm. The findings of this study revealed a moderate degree of socio-ecological vulnerability throughout the coast, with significant regional heterogeneity in its spatial distribution. Furthermore, throughout the course of the two-decade, the highly vulnerable zones expanded by 6.04%, outpacing the low-risk areas by 1116 km2 (61.41%) and 2066 km2 (123.39%), respectively, with the majority of the increase taking place in Fuzhou and Ningde. These changes in vulnerability were shown to be principally influenced by changes in vegetation, precipitation, GDP, and land use (LULC). The major influence of precipitation was highlighted further in the spatial autocorrelation analysis, which demonstrated a close correlation between growing socio-ecological vulnerability and increased precipitation. To conclude, this study's methodology differs from other socio-ecological vulnerability studies in that it is flexible and self-sufficient, offering users a choice of weight application. It also gives a more useful, accurate, and suggestive model to enable decision-makers or stakeholders build strategies or ideas for constructing more resilient coastal systems.

Social vulnerability, social-ecological resilience and coastal governance

Non-technical summary

Our analysis shows that the framing of social vulnerability is shaped by a narrow definition of resilience, focusing on post-disaster return and recovery responses. This perspective does not account for the dynamism and non-stationarity of social-ecological systems (SES) which is becoming increasingly important in the face of accelerating environmental change. Incorporating social-ecological resilience into social vulnerability analysis can improve coastal governance by accounting for adaptation and transformation, as well as scale and cross-scale interactions.

Technical summary

Social vulnerability analysis has been unable to deliver outcomes that reflect the reality of vulnerability and its consequences in an era characterised by accelerating environmental change. In this work, we used critical discourse analysis and key informant interviews to understand different framings of social vulnerability in coastal governance and management, globally and in New Zealand. We found that the framing of system vulnerability could vary depending on the definition of resilience adopted, which has critical ramifications for coastal governance of linked systems of humans and nature. We found that the framing of social vulnerability in coastal governance is mainly influenced by engineering, community and disaster resilience, focusing on return and recovery governance responses to environmental change (e.g. hurricanes, wildfires). Instead, we suggest a novel perspective based on social-ecological resilience, which more accurately reflects the dynamics of linked systems of humans and nature (SES). This revised perspective, general vulnerability, accounts for the dynamics of Earth's systems across various spatial and temporal scales in the face of accelerating environmental change. Accounting for social-ecological resilience and its core aspects (i.e. panarchy, adaptation and transformation) is essential for informing coastal governance of SES (Do we adapt? or Do we transform the SES?).

Social media summary

Social-ecological resilience is essential for social vulnerability analysis in the face of accelerating environmental change.