Regional Impacts of Climate and Land Cover on Ecosystem Water Retention Services in the Upper Yangtze River Basin

Land cover change detection in the Turkish coastal zone based on 28-year (1990-2018) Corine data

In this research, land cover changes in the coastal region of Turkey were analyzed using the Corine dataset between 1990 and 2018. Changes in each period were analyzed by using the rate of change and the annual rate of change, the transition matrix of net changes, and the transition probability matrix. In order to predict land cover change trends and to determine future land cover change probabilities, a combination of Markov and cellular automata models was used. It was determined that the highest increase in each study period was in artificial surfaces and the highest decrease was in the forest and the semi-natural area. The total forest areas were converted to the other land cover type in the first study period amounting to 2479.32 km². Also, it was decreased and transformed by about 62.47 km², 118.82 km², and 203.09 km² of the forest area that existed in the second, third, and fourth periods respectively. The results indicate that the probabilities of the increasing area will be covered by artificial surfaces and agricultural areas. It is estimated that the rate of 57% in 1990, the initial year of the forest areas, will decrease to 53.4% in 2034 and to 53% in 2050. Also, the rate of 2.1% in 1990, the initial year of the artificial surfaces, will increase to 4.5% in 2034 and to 5.0% in 2050. It is seen that more artificial surfaces will be needed in the Turkish coastal region due to the increasing population and number of tourists. It is important to evaluate and investigate the coastal areas where more artificial areas are expected to be needed within the scope of the coastal area management plans to be prepared at the national scale.

Effects of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Water Yield Services in the Dongjiang Lake Basin

Spatial and quantitative assessments of water yield services in watershed ecosystems are necessary for water resource management and improved water ecological protection. In this study, we used the InVEST model to estimate regional water yield in the Dongjiang Lake Basin in China. Moreover, we designed six scenarios to explore the impacts of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes on regional water yield and quantitatively determined the dominant mechanisms of water yield services. The results are expected to provide an important theoretical reference for future spatial planning and improvements of ecological service functions at the water source site. We found that (1) under the time series analysis, the water yield changes of the Dongjiang Lake Basin showed an initial decrease followed by an increase. Spatially, water yield also decreased from the lake area to the surrounding region. (2) Climate change exerted a more significant impact on water yield changes, contributing more than 98.26% to the water yield variability in the basin. In contrast, LULC had a much smaller influence, contributing only 1.74 %. (3) The spatial distribution pattern of water yield services in the watershed was more vulnerable to LULC changes. In particular, the expansion of built-up land is expected to increase the depth of regional water yield and alter its distribution, but it also increases the risk of waterlogging. Therefore, future development in the basin must consider the protection of ecological spaces and maintain the stability of the regional water yield function.