A Framework to Advance the Understanding of the Ecological Effects of Extreme Climate Events

Anthropogenic pressures enhance the deleterious effects of extreme storms on rocky shore communities

Climate change is not only changing the mean values of environmental parameters that modulate ecosystems, but also the regime of disturbances. Among them, extreme events have a key role in structuring biological communities. Ecosystems are frequently suffering multiple anthropogenic pressures which can cause effects that are not additive. Thus, the effects of extreme events need to be studied in combination with other pressures to adequately evaluate their consequences. We performed a manipulative approach in two rocky shores in the Mediterranean with contrasting levels of anthropogenic pressure (mainly eutrophication) simulating storms with different disturbance regimes in the intertidal and subtidal zones. In the short-term, an extreme storm had a greater impact on the species assemblage than other disturbance regimes, being especially notable in the area suffering from a high anthropogenic pressure. In this area, the species assemblages that suffered from an extreme storm took a longer time to recover than the ones affected by other disturbance regimes and were generally more affected after the disturbance. The intertidal zone, having more variable environmental conditions than the subtidal zone, was more resistant and able to recover from extreme storms. Our results suggest that the effects of extreme events on biological communities could be strengthened when co-occurring with anthropogenic pressures, especially ecosystems adapted to less variable environmental conditions. Thus, limiting other anthropogenic pressures that ecosystems are suffering is crucial to maintain the natural resistance and recovery capacity of ecosystems towards extreme events such as storms.

Heat wave intensity can vary the cumulative effects of multiple environmental stressors on Posidonia oceanica seedlings

Climate change is introducing new stressors into already stressed ecosystems. Among these, extreme events such as heat waves play a crucial role in determining the structure of ecosystems. We tested single and combined effects of overgrazing, burial and heat waves on the seedlings of the habitat-forming species Posidonia oceanica. At current heat wave temperatures, overgrazing in isolation had more deleterious effects than seed burial, and effects were synergistic and additive when both factors co-occurred. The combined effect of overgrazing and seed burial with current heat waves could hamper P. oceanica seedling development, with similar or even higher levels than the sole effect of heat waves in the near future (29 °C). The effects of overgrazing and seed burial are expected to be overridden if heat waves temperatures exceed 29 °C. These results suggest that co-occurring environmental stressors, in combination with current heat waves, could compromise the sexual recruitment of this seagrass.

Extreme Temperature Events during 1960–2017 in the Arid Region of Northwest China: Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Associated Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Studying the dynamic changes of extreme temperatures and associated large-scale atmospheric circulation is important for predicting the occurrence of extreme temperatures and reducing their adverse impact and damage. Based on the surface temperature data sets collected from 87 weather stations over the arid region of Northwest China (ARNC) during 1960–2017, the Sen’s slope estimator, Mann–Kendall test, Cumulative anomaly, Moving t-test, and Synthetic analysis methods were used to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics and breaking-point change characteristics of extreme temperatures, and to discuss its associated large-scale atmospheric circulation. The results revealed that at the temporal scale, summer days (SU25), warm days (TX90p), warm nights (TN90p), and warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) showed a remarkable increasing trend at the rates of 2.27, 1.49, 3, and 2.28 days/decade, respectively. The frost days (FD), cold days (TX10p), cold nights (TN10p), and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) significantly decreased at the rates of −3.71, −0.86, −1.77, and −0.76 days/decade, respectively, during the study period. Spatially, the warming trend in the study area is very obvious as a whole, despite pronounced spatial differences in warming rate. After the breakpoint years, the frequency and probability distribution for extreme warm and cold indices were all inclined to the hotter part of the density distribution. This indicates that the climate over the study region shifted sharply and tended to be warmer. The analysis of large-scale atmospheric circulation indicates that the warming trend in the arid region of Northwest China (ARNC) is positively correlated with geopotential height at 500 hPa and negatively correlated with total cloudiness. The findings from this study have important implications for forecasting extreme temperature events and mitigating the impacts of climatological disasters in this region.