A Principal-Agent Theory Perspective on PPP Risk Allocation

Risk Cost Measurement of Value for Money Evaluation Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Ontology: A Case Study of the Urban Rail Transit Public-Private Partnership Projects in China

Risk is demonstrated as one of the most crucial drivers of value for money (VFM) in public–private partnerships (PPP), but in previous studies, the risk cost estimation of the quantitative evaluation of VFM was still a dilemma that strongly depended on specialist discretion or had low methodological operability. This paper establishes a prediction model for estimating the risk cost in the phase of VFM evaluation through a combination of case-based reasoning (CBR) and ontology technology. PPP information ontology was established to provide the technical basis of knowledge representation for the CBR cycle. Then, according to whether the information data were quantitative or qualitative, similarity calculation methods were used for the retrieval of similar cases. The conceptual semantic similarity algorithm based on the ontology tree structure was well implemented to compare abstract information. After the most similar cases were extracted, a revision mechanism was followed when there were deviations in the similar cases. Finally, the risk costs of the target case were obtained by weighting the extracted similar cases based on the similarity. An empirical analysis was performed with 18 historical projects from the China Public–Private Partnerships Center. The results showed that the relative errors between the estimated and actual costs of total risk and retained risk were 11.05% and 2.41%, respectively. This indicates that the estimation model could achieve a better risk cost prediction with small errors, which validates the availability of the model. Based on the proposed model, this research establishes an extensible PPP information ontology model. It promotes the integration and interoperability of information knowledge in the PPP domain, which can be further expanded according to the requirements. Coherent accuracy is provided by the whole CBR-based measurement process, which has offered a systematic and objective method for the risk costs measurement of PPP projects.

Public-private partnership in health care organizations. How to cope with complexity issues: a comparative case-study between Italy and the US

Purpose

Health-care systems around the globe share several pressing challenges – including increasing costs and patient outcomes. Innovative arrangements, such as public–private partnerships (PPP) can be adopted to help address these challenges. Although the promise of PPPs is great, so are its peril if the arrangements are not managed and regulated adequately through the contracting process. Yet, PPP arrangements can introduce their own unique set of problems. This paper aims to analyze how PPPs contracting accounts for three major problems identified reviewing the: performance measurement and audit; determination of compensation and risk management–related issues.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used a case study approach to analyze contracting among health-care PPPs in two countries: Italy and the USA. With a structured review performed on Scopus database using a keywords Boolean research, the authors identified three recurring major issues to investigate in two selected cases, one per country. For each major issue, the authors defined several sub-issues retrieved from a widely used institutional framework. In each sub-issue, a documental analysis on all published information related to the signed contract has been performed identifying the approaches used by the two organizations.

Findings

The authors find that PPP contracting in the USA case seems to be oriented more toward managing institutional change as well as more flexibility in the deductibility and compensation determination for organizations and providers, suggesting this organization is more oriented to change in general. The authors find that PPP contracting in Italy more clearly delineate the allocation of risk between organizations that engage in PPPs, suggesting a more practical approach.

Practical implications

PPP is complex. Contracting helps manage the complexity of these arrangements. This case study approach to PPP contracting highlights the variation in contracting approaches across two different countries. Policymakers and health-care managers need to ensure that PPP contracting clearly delineates auditing and performance measurement, compensation and risk management.

Originality/value

The authors’ analysis sheds light on the different approaches to arranging health-care PPPs in two different country settings. More research should be done to connect these different approaches to important outcomes, such as patient and organizational finances, as well as expanding the scope of countries adopting PPP in health care.

Project Portfolio Construction Using Extreme Value Theory

Choosing proper projects has a great impact on organizational success. Firms have various factors for choosing projects based on their different objectives and strategies. The problem of optimization of projects’ risks and returns is among the most prevalent issues in project portfolio selection. In order to optimize and select proper projects, the amount of projects’ expected risks and returns must be evaluated correctly. Determining the relevant distribution is very important in achieving these expectations. In this research, various types of practical distributions were examined, and considering expected and realized risks, the effects of choosing the different distribution on estimation of risks on construction projects were studied.

Assessing the Barriers and Risks to Private Sector Participation in Infrastructure Construction Projects in Developing Countries of Middle East

In developing countries, governments are often unable to implement urban infrastructure construction projects (UICPs) on their own, mainly due to budget and financial resource limitations. The participation of the private sector, through public–private partnerships (PPPs), has been considered as an alternative effective method for increasing the efficiency and productivity of urban infrastructure development. However, in many developing countries such as those situated in the Middle East, attracting private sector investments for UICPs uncovers profound challenges that have not ever been comprehensively accounted for and prioritized. To fill this knowledge gap, this study seeks to determine and prioritize the major barriers and risks faced by governments and urban managers in attracting private sector investments through the PPP schemes launched by developing countries in the Middle East. Based on a Delphi study conducted in Iran as an example, the opinions of 60 UICPs experts in both the public and private sectors were collected and analyzed. Results show that technical and organizational barriers and risks were perceived as the most important to private sector participation, followed by economic and financial barriers and risks, and then political and legal barriers and risks.

Government Guarantee Decisions in PPP Wastewater Treatment Expansion Projects

Public private partnership (PPP) models are often used in delivering wastewater treatment (WWT) projects. When existing PPP projects need expansion due to higher demand for WWT, in many cases, the expansion may involve a new PPP contract involving a new concessionaire. Expansion PPPs have unique challenges as the sharing of responsibilities and risks can become complex. The complexities are further exacerbated when there are government guarantees involved. Structuring inappropriate guarantees can often lead to high costs for the government. This study focused on the choice of government guarantee in PPP expansion projects in the WWT sector by examining two popular guarantee mechanisms: minimum revenue guarantee and exclusive right. A decision model was developed and applied in a real WWT expansion PPP project in China to illustrate the optimal guarantee under varying circumstances related to service demand, expected unit price, and the existing guarantees in the existing PPP project. The contribution of the study lies in the applicability of the model to facilitate better decisions for the government in selecting the optimal guarantee mechanism in PPP expansion projects.

Risk Allocation in Unsolicited and Solicited Road Public-Private Partnerships: Sustainability and Management Implications

Risk allocation plays a crucial role in the successful development of public-private partnership (PPP) projects. However, despite being an important topic for scholars and practitioners, the existing literature does not provide sufficient evidence on how managing risks in solicited (SP) and unsolicited (USP) road PPP projects, and subsequently, on what the sustainability implications are for such managerial processes. This study aims to extend risk allocation studies by analyzing contracts in Chilean highway PPPs over the last decade based on a systematic content analysis framework and case study data. The framework was developed through line-by-line coding of contract provisions associated with risk-related issues, and data were collected from semi-structured interviews with Chilean PPP practitioners. Results show that, although the majority of risks are either shared or transferred to the private party in most contracts, there are important variations in the way allocation procedures are implemented for SPs and USPs. Contracts analyzed revealed that risk arrangement mechanisms have usually focused on the economic dimension of sustainability without fully incorporating social and environmental considerations, increasing protests in the long-term. Conclusions indicate that risk allocation procedures and sustainability considerations are highly dependent on project-specific features and contextual factors. Overall, the analysis uncovers that the level of autonomy given to the private sector in both SPs and USPs has contributed to properly manage technical and economic risks, but has failed to successfully allocate social and environmental concerns.

Exploring the Risk Factors of Infrastructure PPP Projects for Sustainable Delivery: A Social Network Perspective

Due to the relatively long period and large capital flow of public-private partnership (PPP) projects, PPP participants are faced with a complex risk situation impeding the sustainable project delivery. In recent years, risk management of PPP projects has received increasing attention. In this paper, twenty risk factors associated with infrastructure PPP projects were identified by literature review and in-depth case studies. Relationship data for these twenty typical risk factors were obtained through structured interviews. Based on the obtained data, the risk relationship network within infrastructure PPP projects was identified, and the network structure characteristics were analyzed, including individual node attributes and the influence and cohesion of subgroups. The results indicate that key risk factor nodes can form a reaction chain via bridge nodes that can trigger a risk domino effect within PPP projects. Specifically, the key risk factors of PPP projects are divided into two categories, the first of which include risk factors that have powerful and independent influence, such as delay in government approval, government credit, and imperfect legal and regulatory systems. The second category includes risk factors that are highly vulnerable and easily influenced, such as completion risks, insufficient revenue in the market, and fee change. A key risk factor reaction chain is one in which legal change leads to a decline in government credit rating, triggering a contract risk. Twelve bridge nodes were identified that play an important intermediary role in the network, e.g., legal change, public objection, and financing risk. This paper extends the application of social network analysis in PPP projects management research and identifies the key risk factors and crucial factors influencing chain reactions in PPP projects. The results provide a more in-depth understanding of sustainable PPP project management for government agencies and private enterprises.