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Cremin E, Ladd CJT, Balke T, Banerjee S, Bui LH, Ghosh T, Large A, Thi Van Le H, Nguyen KV, Nguyen LX, Nguyen TTN, Nguyen V, Pal I, Szabo S, Tran H, Sebesvari Z, Khan SA, Renaud FG. Causes and consequences of tipping points in river delta social-ecological systems. AMBIO 2024; 53:1015-1036. [PMID: 38613747 PMCID: PMC11101396 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-023-01978-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2023] [Revised: 11/30/2023] [Accepted: 12/26/2023] [Indexed: 04/15/2024]
Abstract
The sustainability of social-ecological systems within river deltas globally is in question as rapid development and environmental change trigger "negative" or "positive" tipping points depending on actors' perspectives, e.g. regime shift from abundant sediment deposition to sediment shortage, agricultural sustainability to agricultural collapse or shift from rural to urban land use. Using a systematic review of the literature, we show how cascading effects across anthropogenic, ecological, and geophysical processes have triggered numerous tipping points in the governance, hydrological, and land-use management of the world's river deltas. Crossing tipping points had both positive and negative effects that generally enhanced economic development to the detriment of the environment. Assessment of deltas that featured prominently in the review revealed how outcomes of tipping points can inform the long-term trajectory of deltas towards sustainability or collapse. Management of key drivers at the delta scale can trigger positive tipping points to place social-ecological systems on a pathway towards sustainable development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emilie Cremin
- School of Social and Environmental Studies, The University of Glasgow, Dumfries Campus, Rutherford/McCowan Building, Crichton University Campus, Dumfries, DG1 4ZL, Scotland, UK.
| | - Cai J T Ladd
- School of Geography and Earth Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
- University of Swansea, Swansea, UK
| | - Thorsten Balke
- School of Geography and Earth Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Sumana Banerjee
- School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India
| | - Ly H Bui
- VNU-Central Institute for Natural Resources and Environmental Studies (VNU-CRES), Vietnam National University (VNU), Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Tuhin Ghosh
- School of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India
| | - Andy Large
- School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
| | - Hue Thi Van Le
- VNU-Central Institute for Natural Resources and Environmental Studies (VNU-CRES), Vietnam National University (VNU), Hanoi, Vietnam
| | | | - Lan X Nguyen
- Research Center for Rural Development, An Giang University, An Giang, Vietnam
| | - Tanh T N Nguyen
- Research Center for Rural Development, An Giang University, An Giang, Vietnam
| | - Vinh Nguyen
- VNU-Central Institute for Natural Resources and Environmental Studies (VNU-CRES), Vietnam National University (VNU), Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Indrajit Pal
- Disaster Preparedness, Mitigation and Management, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani, Thailand
| | - Sylvia Szabo
- Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh
- Department of Development and Sustainability, Dongguk University, Seoul, South Korea
- Ostrom Center for the Advanced Study in Natural-Resource-Governance, Pathum Thani, Thailand
| | - Ha Tran
- Can Tho University, Can Tho, Vietnam
| | - Zita Sebesvari
- United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany
| | - Shah Alam Khan
- Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Fabrice G Renaud
- School of Social and Environmental Studies, The University of Glasgow, Dumfries Campus, Rutherford/McCowan Building, Crichton University Campus, Dumfries, DG1 4ZL, Scotland, UK
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