Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change Policies on the Market for Forest Industrial Residues

Assessment of Possible Production Leakage from Implementing the EU Biodiversity Strategy on Forest Product Markets

The EU Biodiversity Strategy (EUBDS) for 2030 aims at regaining biodiversity by strengthening the protection of nature in the European Union. This study models and analyses possible impacts of the EUBDS on the production and trade of forest-based products in the EU and non-EU countries in two alternative scenarios. Implementing EUBDS measures would allow a maximum EU roundwood production of roughly 281 M m3 in 2030 in the intensive and 490 M m3 in the moderate scenario. Since in the reference scenario, the EU roundwood production amounts to 539 M m3 in 2030, this represent a reduction of −48% and −9% in 2030, respectively. Until 2050, the production further decreases and accounts for 42% and 90% of the reference production. Globally, the EU roundwood production deficit is compensated partly (roughly between 50%–60%) by increasing production of roundwood in non-EU countries (e.g., USA, Russia, Canada, China and Brazil) whereas the remaining share of the EU production deficit is no longer produced and consumed worldwide. In the EU, reduced roundwood availability leads to a lower production of wood-based products, although, apparent consumption of wood-based products remains similar. This is mainly caused by significantly lower export volumes of wood-based products and, for some product groups, by significantly increased imports as well. This is partly due to unchanged assumptions regarding income and thus, demand patterns. However, on a global level, decreased production and consumption of wood-based products could lead to a growing use of non-bio-based resources to substitute wood-products. Our study also shows that the magnitude of effects strongly depends on how much the use of forest resources is actually restricted.

The Impacts of Calamity Logging on the Sustainable Development of Spruce Fuel Biomass Prices and Spruce Pulp Prices in the Czech Republic

Currently, due to the calamity of unplanned harvesting, the amount of biomass from wood products has increased. Forests occupy 33.7% of the total area of the Czech Republic; therefore, wood and non-wood forest products are important renewables for the country. Wood biomass consists mainly of branches and bark that are not used in the wood or furniture industry. However, it can be used in bioenergy, including wood processing for fuel. As spruce production in the Czech Republic increased from the planned 15.5 million to almost 36.8 million trees in 2020, the price of wood biomass can be expected to be affected. This study aims to develop a predictive model for estimating the decline in the price of wood biomass for wood processors, such as firewood or sawdust producers, as well as for the paper industry. Wood biomass prices are falling with each additional million m3 of spruce wood harvested, as is the decline in wood pulp, which is intended for the paper and packaging industries. The proposed predictive model based on linear regressions should determine how the price of wood biomass will decrease with each additional million harvested spruce trees in the Czech Republic. This tool will be used for practical use in the forestry and wood industry. The linear regression model is suitable for practical forestry use due to its simplicity and high informative value. The aim of the research is to model the dependence of the prices of firewood in the form of wood briquettes and pellets for domestic and industrial processing, as well as the prices of wood pulp on the volume of unplanned logging. It is a guide for the practice of how to use excess spruce wood from unplanned mining in the field of alternative processing with a sustainable aspect for households or heat production for households. The intention is to carry out modelling in such a way that it does not include prices of higher quality wood assortments, which are intended for the woodworking industry.