Feasibility of Stochastic Models for Evaluation of Potential Factors for Safety: A Case Study in Southern Italy

Road safety assessment and risks prioritization using an integrated SWARA and MARCOS approach under spherical fuzzy environment

There are a lot of elements that make road safety assessment situations unpredictable and hard to understand. This could put people's lives in danger, hurt the mental health of a society, and cause permanent financial and human losses. Due to the ambiguity and uncertainty of the risk assessment process, a multi-criteria decision-making technique for dealing with complex systems that involves choosing one of many options is an important strategy of assessing road safety. In this study, an integrated stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA) with measurement of alternatives and ranking according to compromise solution (MARCOS) approach under a spherical fuzzy (SF) set was considered. Then, the proposed methodology was applied to develop the approach of failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) for rural roads in Cosenza, southern Italy. Also, the results of modified FMEA by SF-SWARA-MARCOS were compared with the results of conventional FMEA. The risk score results demonstrated that the source of risk (human) plays a significant role in crashes compared to other sources of risk. The two risks, including landslides and floods, had the lowest values among the factors affecting rural road safety in Calabria, respectively. The correlation between scenario outcomes and main ranking orders in weight values was also investigated. This study was done in line with the goals of sustainable development and the goal of sustainable mobility, which was to find risks and lower the number of accidents on the road. As a result, it is thus essential to reconsider laws and measures necessary to reduce human risks on the regional road network of Calabria to improve road safety.

A comparative study of different neural networks in predicting gross domestic product

Gross domestic product (GDP) can well reflect the development of the economy, and predicting GDP can help better grasp the future economic trends. In this article, three different neural network models, the genetic algorithm – back-propagation neural network model, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) – Elman neural network (Elman NN) model, and the bat algorithm – long short-term memory model, were analyzed based on neural networks. The GDP data of Sichuan province from 1992 to 2020 were collected to compare the performance of the three models in predicting GDP. It was found that the mean absolute percentage error values of the three models were 0.0578, 0.0236, and 0.0654, respectively; the root-mean-square error values were 0.0287, 0.0166, and 0.0465, respectively; and the PSO-Elman NN model had the best performance in GDP prediction. The experimental results demonstrate that neural networks were reliable in predicting GDP and can be used for further applications in practice.

Prioritizing the Potential Smartification Measures by Using an Integrated Decision Support System with Sustainable Development Goals (a Case Study in Southern Italy)

With the increasing population of cities, expanding roads as one of the essential urban infrastructures is a necessary task; therefore, adverse effects such as increased fuel consumption, pollution, noise, and road accidents are inevitable. One of the most efficient ways to mitigate congestion-related adverse effects is to introduce effective intelligent transportation systems (ITS), using advanced technologies and mobile communication protocols to make roads smarter and reduce negative impacts such as improvement in fuel consumption and pollution, and reduction of road accidents, which leads to improving quality of life. Smart roads might play a growing role in the improved safety of road transportation networks. This study aims to evaluate and rank the potential smartification measures for the road network in Calabria, in southern Italy, with sustainable development goals. For this purpose, some potential smartification measures were selected. Experts in the field were consulted using an advanced procedure: four criteria were considered for evaluating these smartification measures. The Integrated fuzzy decision support system (FDSS), namely the fuzzy Delphi analytic hierarchy process (FDAHP) with the fuzzy technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) were used for evaluating and ranking the potential smartification measures. The results demonstrated that the repetition of signals in the vehicle has the highest rank, and photovoltaic systems spread along the road axis has the lowest rank to use as smartification measures in the roads of the case study.

Evaluation of Contributing Factors Affecting Number of Vehicles Involved in Crashes Using Machine Learning Techniques in Rural Roads of Cosenza, Italy

The evaluation of road safety is a critical issue having to be conducted for successful safety management in road transport systems, whereas safety management is considered in road transportation systems as a challenging task according to the dynamic of this issue and the presence of a large number of effective parameters on road safety. Therefore, the evaluation and analysis of important contributing factors affecting the number of vehicles involved in crashes play a key role in increasing the efficiency of road safety. For this purpose, in this research work, two machine learning algorithms, including the group method of data handling (GMDH)-type neural network and a combination of support vector machine (SVM) and the grasshopper optimization algorithm (GOA), are employed. Hence, the number of vehicles involved in an accident is considered to be the output, and the seven factors affecting transport safety, including Daylight (DL), Weekday (W), Type of accident (TA), Location (L), Speed limit (SL), Average speed (AS), and Annual average daily traffic (AADT) of rural roads in Cosenza, southern Italy, are selected as the inputs. In this study, 564 data sets from rural areas were investigated, and the relevant, effective parameters were measured. In the next stage, several models were developed to investigate the parameters affecting the safety management of road transportation in rural areas. The results obtained demonstrated that the “Type of accident” has the highest level and “Location” has the lowest importance in the investigated rural area. Finally, although the results of both algorithms were the same, the GOA-SVM model showed a better degree of accuracy and robustness than the GMDH model.

Application of Harmony Search Algorithm to Slope Stability Analysis

Slope stability analysis is undoubtedly one of the most complex problems in geotechnical engineering and its study plays a paramount role in mitigating the risk associated with the occurrence of a landslide. This problem is commonly tackled by using limit equilibrium methods or advanced numerical techniques to assess the slope safety factor or, sometimes, even the displacement field of the slope. In this study, as an alternative approach, an attempt to assess the stability condition of homogeneous slopes was made using a machine learning (ML) technique. Specifically, a meta-heuristic algorithm (Harmony Search (HS) algorithm) and K-means algorithm were employed to perform a clustering analysis by considering two different classes, depending on whether a slope was unstable or stable. To achieve the purpose of this study, a database made up of 19 case studies with 6 model inputs including unit weight, intercept cohesion, angle of shearing resistance, slope angle, slope height and pore pressure ratio and one output (i.e., the slope safety factor) was established. Referring to this database, 17 out of 19 slopes were categorized correctly. Moreover, the obtained results showed that, referring to the considered database, the intercept cohesion was the most significant parameter in defining the class of each slope, whereas the unit weight had the smallest influence. Finally, the obtained results showed that the Harmony Search algorithm is an efficient approach for training K-means algorithms.

Sensitivity Analysis for Performance Evaluation of a Real Water Distribution System by a Pressure Driven Analysis Approach and Artificial Intelligence Method

Proper performance of water distribution networks (WDNs) plays a vital role in customer satisfaction. The aim of this study is to conduct a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the behavior of WDNs analyzed by a pressure-driven analysis (PDA) approach and the classification technique by using an appropriate artificial neural network, namely the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH). For this purpose, this study is divided into four distinct steps. In the first and second steps, a real network has been analyzed by using a Pressure-Driven Analysis approach (PDA) to obtain the pressure, and α coefficient, the percentage of supplied flow. The analysis has been performed by using three different values of the design peak coefficient k*. In the third step, the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) has been applied and several binary models have been constructed. The analysis has been carried out by using input data, including the real topology of the network and the base demand necessary to satisfy requests of users in average conditions and by assuming that the demand in each single one-hour time step depends on a peak coefficient. Finally, the results obtained from the PDA hydraulic analysis and those obtained by using them in the GMDH algorithm have been compared and sensitivity analysis has been carried out. The innovation of the study is to demonstrate that the input parameters adopted in the design are correct. The analysis confirms that the GMDH algorithm gives proper results for this case study and the results are stable also when the value of each k*, characteristic of a different time hour step, varies in an admissible technical range. It was confirmed that the results obtained by using the PDA approach, analyzed by using a GMDH-type neural network, can provide higher performance sufficiency in the evaluation of WDNs.