Ecosystem Service Multifunctionality: Decline and Recovery Pathways in the Amazon and Chocó Lowland Rainforests

Leakage of biodiversity risks under the European Union Biodiversity Strategy 2030

The European Union Biodiversity Strategy 2030 (EUBDS) aims to regain biodiversity through enhanced forest conservation and protection, which may lead to increased timber harvest in non-EU countries. We aimed to identify the potential leakage of biodiversity risks as induced by the EUBDS. We created an indicator framework that allows one to quantify vulnerability of forest biodiversity. The framework is based on 26 biodiversity indicators for which indicator values were publicly available. We weighted single indicator values with countrywise modeled data on changed timber production under EUBDS implementation. Nearly 80% of the indicators pointed to higher vulnerability in the affected non-EU countries. Roundwood production was transferred to countries with, on average, lower governance quality (p = 0.0001), political awareness (p = 0.548), forest coverage (p = 0.034), and biomass (p = 0.272) and with less sustainable forest management (p = 0.044 and p = 0.028). These countries had more natural habitats (p = 0.039) and intact forest landscapes (p = 0.0001) but higher risk of species extinction (p = 0.006) and less protected area (p = 0.0001) than the EU countries. Only a few indicators pointed to lower vulnerability and biodiversity risks outside the EU. Safeguards are needed to ensure that implementation of EUBDS does not cause harm to ecosystems elsewhere. The EU regulation on deforestation-free supply chains might have limited effects because the sustainable management of existing and even expanding forests is not well considered. Sustained roundwood production in the EU is needed to avoid placing more pressure on more vulnerable ecosystems elsewhere. Decreasing species and habitat indicator values nevertheless call for global conservation and protection schemes. The EUBDS helped pave the way to the Kunming-Montreal Biodiversity Framework. Yet, lower values for the indicators mean governance and biodiversity engagement in non-EU countries suggest that this global framework might not sufficiently prevent leakage of risks to biodiversity. Effective land-use planning is necessary to balance conservation schemes with roundwood production.

Quo vadis, smallholder forest landscape? An introduction to the LPB-RAP model

The impacts of the Anthropocene on climate and biodiversity pose societal and ecological problems that may only be solved by ecosystem restoration. Local to regional actions are required, which need to consider the prevailing present and future conditions of a certain landscape extent. Modeling approaches can be of help to support management efforts and to provide advice to policy making. We present stage one of the LaForeT-PLUC-BE model (Landscape Forestry in the Tropics-PCRaster Land Use Change-Biogeographic & Economic model; in short: LPB) and its thematic expansion module RAP (Restoration Areas Potentials). LPB-RAP is a high-resolution pixel-based scenario tool that relies on a range of explicit land use types (LUTs) to describe various forest types and the environment. It simulates and analyzes future landscape configurations under consideration of climate, population and land use change long-term. Simulated Land Use Land Cover Change (LULCC) builds on dynamic, probabilistic modeling incorporating climatic and anthropogenic determinants as well as restriction parameters to depict a sub-national regional smallholder-dominated forest landscape. The model delivers results for contrasting scenario settings by simulating without and with potential Forest and Landscape Restoration (FLR) measures. FLR potentials are depicted by up to five RAP-LUTs. The model builds on user-defined scenario inputs, such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Model application is here exemplified for the SSP2-RCP4.5 scenario in the time frame 2018-2100 on the hectare scale in annual resolution using Esmeraldas province, Ecuador, as a case study area. The LPB-RAP model is a novel, heuristic Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) tool for smallholder-dominated forest landscapes, supporting near-time top-down planning measures with long-term bottom-up modeling. Its application should be followed up by FLR on-site investigations and stakeholder participation across all involved scales.

Reconciling policy instruments with drivers of deforestation and forest degradation: cross-scale analysis of stakeholder perceptions in tropical countries

Cross-scale studies combining information on policy instruments and on drivers of deforestation and forest degradation are key to design and implement effective forest protection measures. We investigated the scale and country dependency of stakeholder perceptions about future threats to tropical forests (e.g. agriculture, logging, woodfuel) and preferred policy instruments (e.g. reforestation, protected areas, combat illegal logging), by interviewing 224 representatives of forest-related institutions. We conducted analysis of variance and principal component analysis for eighteen variables across three countries (Zambia, Ecuador and the Philippines) and four spatial levels (from international to local). We found that the overall alertness about commercial drivers and the confidence in policy instruments are significantly lower at subnational levels and also in Zambia. Stakeholder expectations about the most important drivers and the most effective policies in the coming decade follow regional narratives, suggesting that there are no one-size-fits-all solutions in international forest policy. However, we found an unexpected consensus across scales, indicating potential for collaboration between institutions operating at different geographical levels. Overall, agriculture remains the driver with the highest expected influence (43%), while a strong favoritism for reforestation and forest restoration (38%) suggests a paradigm shift from protected areas to a stronger focus on integrative approaches.

Incorporating Ecosystem Service Multifunctionality and Its Response to Urbanization to Identify Coordinated Economic, Societal, and Environmental Relationships in China

Urbanization poses a threat to ecosystems and contributes to the degradation of the environment. It is of great importance to identify coordinated economic, societal, and environmental relationships with key ecological functions and services to achieve regional sustainability. Based on a case study in China, this study seeks to fill this gap by estimating the spatial distribution of ecosystem service multifunctionality (ESM) and its spatially heterogeneous response to urbanization. First, the biophysical values of five typical ecosystem services (ESs) (carbon storage, habitat quality, net primary production, soil conservation, and water yield) were assessed based on several simulation models. The biophysical values of these ESs were then standardized and summed to obtain the spatial distribution of ESM. Afterward, the urbanization level was evaluated, and finally, the spatial interaction between urbanization and ESM was exhibited based on the bivariate Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. The results showed that: (1) the ESM showed obvious spatial heterogeneity in southeastern and northwestern China, with a gradual decline from the coast to the interior; (2) ESM and urbanization had different spatial distribution patterns and produced significant local aggregation effects; and (3) harmonious relationships between ESM and urbanization were observed in southeastern coastal China and the surrounding areas of the North China Plain, which were related to the capacity of local coastal ecosystems, mangrove forests, and aquatic ecosystems to provide multiple services and goods simultaneously. Our results suggest that multifunctional ecosystems can realize a ‘win–win’ situation for ecological conservation and socioeconomic development. The results of this study can advance our understanding of the ecological effects of urbanization on ecosystems and provide valuable implications for the coordinated development of humans and nature in the rapid urbanization process.

Ecosystem service multifunctionality assessment and coupling coordination analysis with land use and land cover change in China's coastal zones

Ecosystem services (ESs) have received widespread attention worldwide for their potential to solve sustainability issues. However, extensive land use and land cover change (LUCC) driven by human activities has raised concerns regarding its impacts on ESs, especially in coastal zones. More importantly, spatial-temporal changes, their coupling relationships with LUCC, and their underlying drivers have not been thoroughly analyzed. This study focuses on China's coastal zones to investigate the spatial-temporal changes of ecosystem service multifunctionality (ESM) from 2000 to 2018. Coupling coordination degree (CCD) analysis of the relationship between ESM and comprehensive intensity of land use was applied to identify coastal cities with low-level coordination and their main drivers in 2018. The results show that: (1) the proportion with high levels of ESM decreased by 1.01% from 2000 to 2010 and then increased by 3.29% from 2010 to 2018; (2) the ESM of China's coastal zones present significant spatial heterogeneity, and the low levels of ESM are mainly distributed in the north and urban areas, while most areas in the southern coastal zones have high levels of ESM; (3) forest land is the leading land cover type for ESM, and China's forest conservation policies significantly contribute to the increase in ESM; (4) the CCD of most cities in the southern coastal zones, apart from Shanghai and the Pearl River Delta, is at a relatively high level and experiences no significant changes, while most cities in the northern coastal zones display an improving trend; (5) the land use type, landform type, and leaf area index are the determinants of ESM, and the annual average temperature, population density, and surface elevation are the greatest influences on the CCD. The findings of this study can inform ecological conservation and landscape planning and are beneficial to the sustainable development of coastal zones in China.

Additionality and Leakage Resulting from PES Implementation? Evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazonia

Payments for Environmental Services (PES) are instruments which seem well suited for forest conservation. However, their impact on reducing deforestation might be weakened by negligible additionality and leakage effects; the first refers to the low variation in net deforestation rates even in the absence of PES, and the second refers to the displaced deforestation behavior to other areas not covered by PES. For the case of Ecuador, we examine both issues by assessing the historical deforestation trend of selected PES-enrolled areas and that of their adjacent areas to identify deforestation patterns before and after PES implementation. We analyze the additional effect of PES on reducing deforestation by comparison to a baseline as well as to comparable reference sites at two different spatial scales. We also analyze potential leakage effects of PES by comparing deforestation development in adjacent areas. We show that PES has achieved marginally low conservation impacts in enrolled areas with an average difference in net deforestation rates of 0.02 percent points over a period of 28 years. Overall, PES-enrolled areas depict lower annual net deforestation rates than unenrolled areas, albeit at a negligible rate, and there is also some evidence that deforestation decreased in adjacent areas after PES implementation. Additionally, there exists a statistically significant linear increasing deforestation trend in adjacent areas as distance increases from the PES-enrolled area. Our empirical results, however, raise the suspicion that the choice of PES-enrolled areas might have been influenced by self-selection.

What Drives Household Deforestation Decisions? Insights from the Ecuadorian Lowland Rainforests

Tropical forests, and more concretely, the Amazon Basin and the Chocó-Darién, are highly affected by deforestation activities. Households are the main land-use decision-makers and are key agents for forest conservation and deforestation. Understanding the determinants of deforestation at the household level is critical for conservation policies and sustainable development. We explore the drivers of household deforestation decisions, focusing on the quality of the forest resources (timber volume potential) and the institutional environment (conservation strategies, titling, and governmental grants). Both aspects are hypothesized to influence deforestation, but there is little empirical evidence. We address the following questions: (i) Does timber availability attract more deforestation? (ii) Do conservation strategies (incentive-based programs in the Central Amazon and protected areas in the Chocó-Darién) influence deforestation decisions in household located outside the areas under conservation? (iii) Does the absence of titling increase the odds of a household to deforest? (iv) Can governmental grants for poverty alleviation help in the fight against deforestation? We estimated a logit model, where the dependent variable reflects whether or not a household cleared forest within the farm. As predictors, we included the above variables and controlled by household-specific characteristics. This study was conducted in the Central Amazon and the Chocó-Darién of Ecuador, two major deforestation fronts in the country. We found that timber volume potential is associated with a higher odds of deforesting in the Central Amazon, but with a lower odds in the Chocó-Darién. Although conservation strategies can influence household decisions, the effects are context-dependent. Households near the incentive-based program (Central Amazon) have a lower odds of deforesting, whereas households near a protected area (Chocó-Darién) showed the opposite effect. Titling is also important for deforestation reduction; more attention is needed in the Chocó-Darién where numerous households are living in untitled lands. Finally, governmental grants for poverty alleviation showed the potential to generate positive environmental outcomes.