Impacts of Erratic Snowfall on Apple Orchards in Kashmir Valley, India

Different sets of traits determine transition of alien species along the invasion continuum

Invasive alien species are currently considered as one of the dominant drivers of global environmental change. Till now, the majority of studies have focused on single or a few traits of alien species that facilitate their invasion. Also inclusion of all the traits which determine the transition of aliens along the different stages of invasion continuum (casual, naturalised and invasive) has remained largely overlooked. In this study, we collected a comprehensive trait dataset on 144 alien plant species of Kashmir Himalaya - a global biodiversity hotspot region. To test which traits of alien species, individually or in combination along with anthropogenic factors, determine their transition along the invasion continuum, we employed chi-square tests, boosted regression trees and phylogenetic methods. We found the perennial life span, longer residence time, greater number of introduced regions, and better seed dispersal mechanism were critical in determining the transition from casual to naturalised. The herbaceous growth form, therophyte Raunkiaer life-form, annual life span, achene fruit, longer residence time and broader introduced range were the species' traits determining transition from naturalised to invasive. Aliens introduced as ornamentals have more propensity to become naturalised; whereas aliens introduced unintentionally show overrepresentation at the invasive stage. Phylogeny alone showed mixed results indicating both clustering and dispersion; however, in combination with other traits, it plays a significant role in determining the stage of invasion. Overall, our study disentangles the individual and interactive roles of multiple traits that determine the transition of alien species' along the invasion continuum. Further, we foresee the potential applicability of our findings in designing robust invasion risk analysis protocols and stage-specific invasion management strategies in this Himalayan region, with learnings for elsewhere in the world.

Quantifying the landscape changes within and outside the Dachigam National Park, Kashmir Himalaya, India using observations and models

Protected areas are the cornerstone of biodiversity and serve as a haven for biodiversity conservation. However, due to immense anthropic pressures and ongoing changes in climate, the protected reserves are under immense threat. Human interference through land system changes is a major precusor of fragmentation of landscapes resulting in the decline of Himalayan biodiversity. In this context, this research assessed land use land cover changes (LULCCs) and fragmentation within and outside the Dachigam National Park (DNP) using remote sensing data, GIS-based models and ground truth over the past 55 years (1965-2020). Landscape Fragmentation Tool (LFT) helped to compute edge effect, patchiness, perforation and core areas. The Land Change Modeller (LCM) of IDRISI TerrSet was used for simulating the future LULC for the years 2030, 2050, 2700 and 2100. The analysis of LULCCs showed that built-up and aquatic vegetation expanded by 326% and 174%, respectively in the vicinity of the DNP. The area under agriculture, scrub and pasture decreased primarily due to intensified land use activities. Within the DNP, the area under forest cover declined by 7%. A substantial decrease was observed in the core zone both within (39%) and outside (30%) the DNP indicative of fragmentation of natural habitats. LCM analysis projected 10% increase in the built-up extents besides forests, shrublands and pastures. This knowledge generated in this study shall form an important baseline for understanding and characterising the human-wildlife relationship, initiating long-term ecological research (LTER) on naturally vegetated and aquatic ecosystems (primarily Dal Lake) of the region.

Climate warming-driven phenological shifts are species-specific in woody plants: evidence from twig experiment in Kashmir Himalaya

Experimental evidences in support of climate warming-driven phenological shifts are still scarce, particularly from the developing world. Here, we investigated the effect of experimental warming on flowering phenology of selected woody plants in Kashmir Himalaya. We selected the twigs of four congeneric pairs of temperate woody species (Prunus, Populus, Ulmus, Viburnum)-typical spring-flowering plants in the region. Using randomised block design, we monitored these winter dormant twigs in controlled growth chambers to study the effect of different temperature regimes (9, 17, 20 and 23 °C) and species identity on the patterns of phenological shifts. We observed a significant phenological shift in all the species showing preponement in the first flower out and senescence phases ranging from 0.56 to 3.0 and 0.77 to 4.04 days per degree increase in temperature, respectively. The duration of flowering phase in all the species showed a corresponding decrease along the gradient of increasing temperature, which was more driven by preponement of the flower senescence than the start of flowering. The patterns of phenological shifts were highly species-specific, and the magnitude of these shifts significantly varied in all the four pairs of congeneric species despite their phylogenetic similarity. Our study provides experimental support to the previous long-term observation and herbarium-based studies showing that the patterns of phenological shifts in response to global climate warming are likely to vary between species, even those belonging to same evolutionary stock. Our findings highlight that a one-size-fits-all strategy to manage the likely impacts of climate warming-induced phenological shifts will seldom succeed, and should instead be designed for the specific phenological responses of species and regions.

Climatic Trends of Variable Temperate Environment: A Complete Time Series Analysis during 1980–2020

The western Himalayan region is susceptible to minor climate changes because of its fragile ecology, which might threaten the valley’s prestigious ecosystems and socio-economic components. The Himalayas’s local climate and weather are vulnerable to and interlinked with world-scale climatic changes since the region’s hydrology is predominantly dominated by snow and glaciers. The Himalayas, notably the Jammu and Kashmir region in the western Himalayas, has clearly shown distinct and robust evidence of climate change. This study used observed data to examine the climatic variability and trends of change in precipitation and temperature for the Kashmir valley between 1980 and 2020. Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Kokernag, Qazigund, Kupwara, and Srinagar (Shalimar) meteorological stations in the Kashmir valley were studied in detail for long- and short-term as well as localized fluctuations in temperature and precipitation. The annual temperature and precipitation fluctuations were calculated using Sen’s slope approach, and the sloping trend was determined using linear regression. The research showed statistically insignificant growing trends in maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the Kashmir valley. The average annual temperature in the Kashmir valley increased by 1.55 °C during the last 41 years (from 1980 to 2020), with a higher rise in maximum and minimum temperature by 2.00 and 1.10 °C, respectively. However, precipitation showed a non-significant decreasing trend concerning time series analysis over 1980 to 2020 in Kashmir valley. Results of annual average maximum temperature at all the stations revealed that Pahalgam (2.2 °C), Kokernag (1.8 °C), and Kupwara (1.8 °C) displayed a steep upsurge and statistically significant trends; however, annual average minimum temperature followed an increasing trend from 1980 to 2020 at all the stations except Shalimar. However, non-significant declining trends in precipitation were recorded at all the locations in Kashmir valley. This changing pattern of temperature and precipitation could have significant environmental consequences, affecting the western Himalayan region’s food security and ecological sustainability.