Sustainability Assessment Based on Integrating EKC with Decoupling: Empirical Evidence from China

The race between global economic growth and carbon emissions: based on a comparative study of developed and developing countries

In recent years, there has been a persistent intensification of the global greenhouse effect. Balancing carbon emission reduction with economic growth poses an unprecedented global challenge. To better comprehend the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, this study first utilized the Tapio decoupling index to compare the decoupling relationship (the USA, Japan, and Germany) and three developing countries (China, India, and Russia) from 2000-2020. Additionally, the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method was employed to investigate the factors influencing changes in carbon emissions. Our findings indicate that (1) the USA and Germany basically achieved strong decoupling; China, India, and Russia mainly showed weak decoupling; and Japan showed recessive decoupling. (2) Economic growth predominantly contributed to increased carbon emissions, with a lesser impact from population growth. A significant reduction in energy intensity restrained carbon emissions growth, as did energy structure replacement in most countries, excluding Japan. Based on this, a decoupling effort index was formulated. It has shown that the decoupling efforts made by developing countries are weaker than those of developed countries, primarily attributed to a lesser degree of decoupling between energy intensity and structure. This paper offers valuable insights for developing countries undergoing a low-carbon economic transformation. They should counterbalance carbon emission escalation resulting from economic growth through technological and energy structure improvements.

Trade agreements and CO2 emissions in Asian countries: accounting for institutional heterogeneity

This paper aims to measure the impact of environmental provisions in free-trade agreements on pollution levels in 40 Asian economies for the period 1990-2019. Following the failure of WTO negotiations, there has been a rapid proliferation of preferential trade agreements incorporating various types of environmental clauses. We exploit such changes to assess their influence on pollution emissions. We use a DOLS approach that considers the potential endogeneity of environmental clauses. Further, panel vector error correction models (VECM) are employed for examining the presence of a cointegration relationship among the variables studied. Overall, our findings indicate that these environmental clauses have heterogenous effects on CO2 emissions. We do not find significant effects of environmental clauses on pollution. However, this result is driven by environmental provisions that are not legally enforceable. We do find a positive effect of environmental clauses with a higher level of legalism on the environmental quality. These results show that the inclusion of environmental provisions in trade agreements is not sufficient by itself. Such provisions should incorporate a legally enforceable framework to effectively address environmental concerns. These findings have significant policy implications for Asian countries.

Decoupling Effect of County Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in China: Empirical Evidence from Jiangsu Province

Under the pressure of low-carbon development at county level in China, this paper takes Jiangsu province as an example to analyze the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, aiming to provide a reference for the low-carbon development in Jiangsu and other regions in China. Based on the county-level panel data from 2000 to 2017, this paper uses the Tapio elasticity model and environmental Kuznets curve model, and focuses on the differences in regional economic development and the impacts of the 2008 global economic crisis. The results show that, in general, the decoupling effect of carbon emissions in Jiangsu counties has gradually increased during the study period. Since 2011, all counties achieved the speed decoupling, with more than half of them showing strong decoupling. The environmental Kuznets curves of carbon emissions in different income groups are established, and changed before and after the 2008 global economic crisis. In 2017, only 10 of the 53 counties were on the right side of the curve, realizing the quantity decoupling between the two. Therefore, to achieve a win–win situation between carbon emission reduction and economic growth, efforts should be made from the aspects of industrial structure and energy efficiency, and measures should be taken according to local conditions.

Analysis of Agricultural CO2 Emissions in Henan Province, China, Based on EKC and Decoupling

Global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is highly concerning. Both the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis and decoupling analysis indicate a dynamic relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution, and each method has its own emphasis. The objective of this paper is to investigate the nexus between grain production and agricultural carbon emissions for the main grain-producing areas in China. Taking Henan Province, the second largest agricultural province, as an example, this paper examines the relationship between grain production and agricultural CO2 emissions during 2000–2019, using the EKC hypothesis and decoupling analysis. The results are as follows: (1) The estimation model of CO2 EKC shows the climbing stage of an inverted U-shaped relationship, which suggests that agricultural economic growth occurred at the cost of an increase in agricultural CO2 emissions in Henan Province during the past 20 years. (2) The results of the decoupling analysis show that incidences of weak decoupling and expansive coupling states took up most of the study period, accompanied by an occasionally strong decoupling state; decoupling and coupling states alternated irregularly, and no clear development trends were observed. (3) Considering the shape of the CO2 EKC and the decoupling state, environmental policies encouraged decoupling, but suffered from time lags and poor continuity; long-term incentives, such as an ecological compensation policy, could perhaps drive carbon emission reduction. On this basis, Chinese agricultural policy should combine environmentally targeted interventions with measures supporting production and farmers’ incomes, and environmental policy should also adapt to economic growth. Only when both supplement each other can sustainable agricultural goals be achieved.

Crop Production and Agricultural Carbon Emissions: Relationship Diagnosis and Decomposition Analysis

Modern agriculture contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, and agriculture has become the second biggest source of carbon emissions in China. In this context, it is necessary for China to study the nexus of agricultural economic growth and carbon emissions. Taking Jilin province as an example, this paper applied the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis and a decoupling analysis to examine the relationship between crop production and agricultural carbon emissions during 2000–2018, and it further provided a decomposition analysis of the changes in agricultural carbon emissions using the log mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. The results were as follows: (1) Based on the results of CO₂ EKC estimation, an N-shaped EKC was found; in particular, the upward trend in agricultural carbon emissions has not changed recently. (2) According to the results of the decoupling analysis, expansive coupling occurred for 9 years, which was followed by weak decoupling for 5 years, and strong decoupling and strong coupling occurred for 2 years each. There was no stable evolutionary path from coupling to decoupling, and this has remained true recently. (3) We used the LMDI method to decompose the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions into four factors: the agricultural carbon emission intensity effect, structure effect, economic effect, and labor force effect. From a policymaking perspective, we integrated the results of both the EKC and the decoupling analysis and conducted a detailed decomposition analysis, focusing on several key time points. Agricultural economic growth was found to have played a significant role on many occasions in the increase in agricultural carbon emissions, while agricultural carbon emission intensity was important to the decline in agricultural carbon emissions. Specifically, the four factors’ driving direction in the context of agricultural carbon emissions was not stable. We also found that the change in agricultural carbon emissions was affected more by economic policy than by environmental policy. Finally, we put forward policy suggestions for low-carbon agricultural development in Jilin province.