Land Use-Driven Changes in Ecosystem Service Values and Simulation of Future Scenarios: A Case Study of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Quantifying the impact of the Grain-for-Green Program on ecosystem service scarcity value in Qinghai, China

Studying the impact of large-scale ecological projects, such as the Grain-for-Green Program (GGP), on ecosystem services (ES) is currently a frontier and hot topic of ecological research. The GGP can directly change land use and land cover, thus affecting ES. By comparing the changes of ecosystem service value (ESV) and ecosystem service scarcity value (ESSV) in Qinghai before and after the implementation of the GGP, this paper clarified the impact of the GGP on Qinghai from the angles of ecology and economics. This paper quantified and evaluated the land use dynamics, ESV, and ESSV in Qinghai from 1995 to 2020. The results showed that in the past 25 years, the total annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of Qinghai showed a trend of sustained growth. From 1995 to 2020, the ESV increased by 6.80%. After considering supply and demand, the ESSV showed a continuous upward trend, increasing by 719.38%. After implementation of the GGP, the increase of NDVI inhibited the increase of the ESSV. These findings from evaluation of the effect of the GGP implementation provide a theoretical basis for future policy implementation and, in particular, a reference for the evaluation of the ESV and the ESSV in Qinghai.

Analysis of Landscape Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Residential Areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: A Case Study of Tibet, China

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the largest ecological barrier and one of the most vulnerable areas of the ecological environmental system. However, the increasing frequency of human activities in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has led to strong interference. Residential areas are the main places in which human activities are carried out and, as such, can effectively reflect the intensity of activities. Based on this, this research takes the Tibet Autonomous Region as the study area and analyzes the distribution characteristics of Tibetan residential areas using Zipf's law and various landscape indices, as well as discussing the influences of altitude, hydrology, ecological environment, and location on residential area distribution. The obtained results indicate the following: (1) The residential areas in Tibet basically conform to the rank-size principle. The residential areas in central and northwest Tibet are concentrated in size distribution, and the relatively large residential areas are prominent, while the residential areas in the eastern Hengduan mountain region are relatively balanced in size distribution. (2) The landscape index results demonstrate that the counties with an unbalanced distribution of residential areas are mainly concentrated in the northwest of Tibet, while the residential areas in the counties and regions where the administrative stations of each prefecture-level city (or region) are located tend to present a polarization phenomenon, with large patches. The area distribution of residential areas showed a "medium-high-low" pattern from southeast to northwest. The residential areas in eastern Tibet have a high degree of fragmentation and a low degree of aggregation, while the residential areas in northwest Tibet have a low degree of fragmentation and a relatively high degree of aggregation. (3) The residential areas in Tibet are most concentrated in the altitude range of 3000-5000 m above sea level and their water affinity and road-affinity are strong, with the distribution of residential areas within 500 m of roads and water networks accounting for more than one-quarter. The vegetation coverage in the residential areas is low, inconsistent with the surface vegetation coverage rate over the whole of Tibet.

Quantifying the Relationship between Land Use Intensity and Ecosystem Services' Value in the Hanjiang River Basin: A Case Study of the Hubei Section

An increased land use intensity due to rapid urbanization and socio-economic development would alter the structure and function of regional ecosystems and cause prominent environmental problems. Revealing the impact of land use intensity on ecosystem services (ES) would provide guidance for more informed decision making to promote the sustainable development of human and natural systems. In this study, we selected the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB) in Hubei Province (China) as our study area, explored the correlation between land use intensity and ecosystem Services' Value (ESV), and investigated impacts of natural and socio-economic factors on ESV variations based on the Geographical Detector Model (GDM) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The results show that (1) from 2000 to 2020, land use intensity in HRB generally showed an upward trend, with a high spatial agglomeration in the southeast and low in the northwest; (2) the total ESV increased from 295.56 billion CNY in 2000 to 296.93 billion CNY in 2010, and then decreased to 295.63 CNY in 2020, exhibiting an inverted U-shaped trend, with regulation services contributing the most to ESV; (3) land use intensity and ESV had a strong negative spatial correlation, with LH (low land use intensity vs. high ESV) aggregations mainly distributed in the northwest, whereas HL (high land use intensity vs. low ESV) aggregations were located in the southeast; (4) natural factors, including annual mean temperature, the percentage of forest land, and slope were positively associated with ESV, while socio-economic factors, including GDP and population density, were negatively associated with ESV. To achieve the coordinated development of the socio-economy and the environment, ES should be incorporated into spatial planning and socio-economic development policies.

Ecosystem Service Value Estimation of Paddy Field Ecosystems Based on Multi-Source Remote Sensing Data

A paddy field ecosystem (PFE) is an important component of an agricultural land ecosystem and is also a special artificial wetland with extremely high value. Taking Tianjin (a municipality city in China) as the research area and using multi-source remote sensing data, we improved the accounting framework of the ecosystem service value (ESV) of PFEs and the calibration of model parameters. The ESV of PFEs was mapped at medium-high resolution and fine-grain at the provincial scale. The results showed that: (1) the net ESV of PFEs in Tianjin in 2019 was RMB 29.68 × 108, accounting for 0.21% of GDP. The positive ESV was RMB 35.53 × 108, the negative ESV was RMB 5.84 × 108, and the average ESV per unit area was RMB 5.47 × 104/ha; (2) as a proportion of the ESV of PFE, the value of climate regulation (61.27%) was greater than the value of carbon fixation and oxygen release (15.29%), which was greater than the value of primary products supply (8.08%). The production value of PFEs is far lower than their ESV; (3) the total net ESV in Baodi District was RMB 16.85 × 108, accounting for 56.77% of Tianjin’s ESV, and the net ESV per unit area was RMB 5.72 × 104/ha, both of which were higher than in other districts; (4) the pixel-based hot spots analysis showed that the number of hot spots (high-value ESV) and cold spots (low-value ESV) reached 98.00% (hot spots 56.9%, cold spots 41.1%) with a significant cluster distribution. The hot spots were mostly distributed in Baodi District (37.8%) and the cold spots were mostly distributed in Ninghe District (17.2%). The research results can support agricultural development, improve countermeasures according to local conditions, and provide theoretical support for regional land use planning, ecological compensation policy formulation and ecological sustainable development. Our methodology can be used to assess the impact of land use change on ESV.

The Evolution and Determinants of Ecosystem Services in Guizhou—A Typical Karst Mountainous Area in Southwest China

Due to rapid urbanization and economic development, the natural environment and ecological processes have been significantly affected by human activities. Especially in ecologically fragile karst areas, the ecosystems are more sensitive to external disturbances and have a hard time recovering, thus studies on the ecosystem services in these areas are significant. In view of this, we took Guizhou (a typical karst province) as the research area, evaluated the ecosystem service value (ESV) according to reclassified land uses and revised equivalent factors, and investigated the determinants of ecosystem services based on geographic detection. It was found that the total ESV showed a prominent increase trend, increasing from 152.55 billion CNY in 2000 to 285.50 billion CNY in 2020. The rise of grain prices due to growing social demands was the main factor in driving the increase of ESV. Spatially, the ESVs of central and western Guizhou were lower with cold spots appearing around human gathering areas, while that of southern and southeastern Guizhou were higher with hot spots that formed in continually distributed woodland. Moreover, the ESV per unit area and its change rate in karst regions were always lower than that in non-karst areas. Precipitation and temperature were the dominant nature factors while cultivation and population density were the main anthropogenic effects driving the evolution of ecosystem services. Therefore, positive human activities as well as rational and efficient land-use should be guided to promote the coordinated and high-quality development of ecology and the economy.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Changes with Ecosystem Service Value in the Yellow River Basin

Land use change plays a crucial role in global environmental change. Understanding the mode and land use change procedure is conducive to improving the quality of the global eco-environment and promoting the harmonized development of human–land relationships. Large river basins play an important role in areal socioeconomic development. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is an important ecological protective screen, economic zone, and major grain producing area in China, which faces challenges with respect to ecological degradation and water and sediment management. Simulating the alterations in ecosystem service value (ESV) owing to land use change in the YRB under multiple scenarios is of great importance to guaranteeing the ecological security of the basin and improve the regional ESV. According to the land use data of 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2018, the alterations in the land use and ESV in the YRB over the past 30 years were calculated and analyzed on the basis of six land use types: cultivated land, forestland, grassland, water area, built-up land, and unused land. The patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate the land use change in the study area under three scenarios (natural development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection in 2026); estimate the ESV under each scenario; and conduct a comparative analysis. We found that the land use area in the YRB changed significantly during the study period. The ESV of the YRB has slowly increased by ~USD 15 billion over the past 30 years. The ESV obtained under the ecological protection scenario is the highest. The simulation of the YRB’s future land use change, and comparison and analysis of the ESV under different scenarios, provide guidance and a scientific basis for promoting ecological conservation and high-quality development of river basins worldwide.

Impact of Hydrological Infrastructure Projects on Land Use/Cover and Socioeconomic Development in Arid Regions—Evidence from the Upper Atbara and Setit Dam Complex, Kassala, Eastern Sudan

In recent years, Africa has seen much construction of large-scale hydrological infrastructures in the arid and semi-arid regions of numerous countries. This paper aims to quantify the effects of this form of hydrological infrastructure, especially the Upper Atbara and Setit Dam Complex (UASDC) in Eastern Sudan, on the land use/cover (LUC) and socioeconomic domains. This paper attempts to advance our understanding of this phenomenon by using multiple approaches. A framework using the integration of 3S technologies and a logical approach for quantifying the significance of the results to society has been developed. The method used Landsat5 TM in 2002, Sentinel2A in 2018, and statistical data to create the LUC map. The final map included seven classes; the overall accuracy of changes in LUC patterns was 94.9% in 2002 and 93% in the results reveal that significant changes occurred in terms of LUC, having a considerable effect on socio-economic development. The results were analyzed with the logical approach for overall objectives, where 85% represents S1, 3.3% represents S2, and 11.7% represents S3, respectively. This study provides an insight into further investigations of the dam’s effect on climate and groundwater, and offers a new perspective on land use prediction, simulation, and environmental sustainability.