The Dynamics of Public Perceptions and Climate Change in Swat Valley, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Phytochemical-mediated regulation of aflatoxigenic fungi contamination in a shifting climate and environment

Mycotoxin contamination poses a significant problem in developing countries, particularly in northern Pakistan's fluctuating climate. This study aimed to assess aflatoxin contamination in medicinal and condiment plants in Upper Dir (dry-temperate) and Upper Swat (moist-temperate) districts. Plant samples were collected and screened for mycotoxins (Aflatoxin-B1 and Aflatoxin-B-2). Results showed high levels of AFB-1 (11,505.42 ± 188.82) as compared to AFB-2 (846 ± 241.56). The maximum contamination of AFB-1 in Coriandrum sativum (1154.5 ± 13.43 ng to 3328 ± 9.9 ng) followed by F. vulgare (883 ± 9.89 ng to 2483 ± 8.4 ng), T. ammi (815 ± 11.31 ng to 2316 ± 7.1 ng), and C. longa (935.5 ± 2.12 ng to 2009 ± 4.2 ng) while the minimum was reported in C. cyminum (671 ± 9.91 ng to 1995 ± 5.7 ng). Antifungal tests indicated potential resistance in certain plant species (C. cyminum) while A. flavus as the most toxins contributing species due to high resistance below 80% (54.2 ± 0.55 to 79.5 ± 2.02). HPLC analysis revealed hydroxyl benzoic acid (5136 amu) as the dominant average phytochemical followed by phloroglucinol (4144.31 amu) with individual contribution of 8542.08 amu and 12,181.5 amu from C. cyaminum. The comparison of average phytochemicals revealed the maximum concentration in C. cyminum (2885.95) followed by C. longa (1892.73). The findings revealed a statistically significant and robust negative correlation (y = - 2.7239 ×  + 5141.9; r = - 0.8136; p < 0.05) between average mycotoxins and phytochemical concentrations. Temperature positively correlated with aflatoxin levels (p < 0.01), while humidity had a weaker correlation. Elevation showed a negative correlation (p < 0.05), while geographical factors (latitude and longitude) had mixed correlations (p < 0.05). Specific regions exhibited increasing aflatoxin trends due to climatic and geographic factors.

Spatial soil loss prediction impacted by long-term land use/land cover change: a case study of Swat District

Soil erosion is a destructive consequence of land degradation caused by deforestation, improper farming practices, overgrazing, and urbanization. This irreversible effect negatively impacts the limited renewable soil resource, causing soil truncation, reduced fertility, and unstable slopes. To address the anticipation of erosion modulus resulting from long-term land use and land cover (LULC) changes, a study was conducted in the Swat District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Kpk), Pakistan. The study aimed to predict and evaluate soil erosion concerning these changes using remote sensing (RS), geographic information systems (GIS), and the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model. We also evaluated the impact of the Billion Tree Tsunami Project (BTTP) on soil erosion in the region. Model inputs, such as rainfall erosivity factor, topography factor, land cover and management factor, and erodibility factor, were used to calculate soil erosion. The results revealed that significant soil loss occurred under 2001, 2011, and 2021 LULC conditions, accounting for 67.26%, 61.78%, and 65.32%, falling within the category of low erosion potential. The vulnerable topographical features of the area indicated higher erosion modulus. The maximum soil loss rates observed in 2001, 2011, and 2021 were 80 t/ha-1/year-1, 120 t/ha-1/year-1, and 96 t/ha-1/year-1, respectively. However, the observed reduction in soil loss in 2021 as compared to 2001 and 2011 suggests a positive influence of the BTTP on soil conservation efforts. This study underscores the potential of afforestation initiatives like the BTTP in mitigating soil erosion and highlights the significance of environmental conservation programs in regions with vulnerable topography.

Climate Change and Water Crises in Pakistan: Implications on Water Quality and Health Risks

Pakistan is vulnerable and most affected by adverse impacts of climate change. The study examines the impact of climate change on Pakistan during the year 2022, resulting into unprecedented heatwave and drought in summers followed by the abnormal rains and floods during monsoon season. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan's economy, which has been devastated by both drought and floods. While the flood water is gradually receding, the stagnant contaminated water is causing several health risks for the inhabitants. This research argues that water security is the emerging national security challenge for Pakistan. The article investigates the status of water availability vis-a-vis the burgeoning population, agriculture, and other uses of water. Impact of abnormal melting of glaciers, nonavailability of dams for storage of rainwater, and lack of smart means for agriculture water have been examined to empirically validate the arguments.

Climate change perception in Romania

In the last decades, anthropogenic drivers have significantly influenced the natural climate variability of Earth's atmosphere. Climate change has become a subject of major interest for different levels of our society, such as national governments, businesses, local administration, or citizens. While national and local policies propose mitigation and adaptation strategies for different sectors, public perception is a key component of any implementation plan. This study investigates the CC perception in Romania, based on a national-scale online survey performed in the spring of 2020, aiming to outline the prominence of environmental and CC issues, level of information and interest, perceived causes, changes perceived in meteorological phenomena at the regional scale, perceived impacts, and the psychological representation of the CC. The study investigates single causal factors of perception. We found that particularly (i) the regional differences on climate change intensity strongly bias the perception of CC causes; (ii) age is very likely to influence the acceptance of CC, the importance of environmental issues, and the levels of information and interest; while (iii) age, gender, and place of residence (rural-urban) are very likely to control the changes perceived in the occurrence of various meteorological phenomena, and their impact. This research is the first statistically relevant analysis (± 4%, statistical significance) developed at national and regional scales and the only study of climate change perception performed during the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania. Its results may represent the baseline for more in-depth research.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00704-022-04041-4.

Effect of Climate Changes on Renewable Production in the Mediterranean Climate: Case Study of the Energy Retrofit for a Detached House

One of the strategies of the European Green Deal is the increment of renewable integration in the civil sector and the mitigation of the impact of climate change. With a statistical and critical approach, the paper analyzes these aspects by means of a case study simulated in a cooling dominated climate. It consists of a single-family house representative of the 1980s Italian building stock. Starting from data monitored between 2015 and 2020, a weather file was built with different methodologies. The first objective was the evaluation of how the method for selecting the solar radiation influences the prevision of photovoltaic productivity. Then, a sensitivity analysis was developed, by means of modified weather files according to representative pathways defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The results indicate that the climate changes will bring an increment of photovoltaic productivity while the heating energy need will be reduced until 45% (e.g., in March) and the cooling energy need will be more than double compared with the current conditions. The traditional efficiency measures are not resilient because the increase of the cooling demand could be not balanced. The maximization of installed photovoltaic power is a solution for increasing the resilience. Indeed, going from 3.3 kWp to 6.9 kWp for the worst emission scenario, in a typical summer month (e.g., August), the self-consumption increases until 33% meanwhile the imported electricity passes from 28% to 17%.