Multi-Period Multi-Criteria Decision Making under Uncertainty: A Renewable Energy Transition Case from Germany

Impact of economic policy uncertainty and renewable energy on environmental quality: testing the LCC hypothesis for fast growing economies

This study investigates the influence of economic policy uncertainty and trade openness on load capacity factor for fast growing countries for time period of 1996-2019. The empirical outcomes verify the presence of the LCC hypothesis in fast growing economies. Results also show that economic policy uncertainty reduces environmental quality for lower quantiles, whereas renewable energy consumption is a useful tool for improving environmental quality. Moreover, the negative sign of the coefficient of trade openness demonstrates that the current pattern of trade is not providing the desired outcomes. Based on these empirical findings, we suggest a comprehensive policy framework to attain the targets of SDG 07 (renewable energy), SDG 08 (economic growth), and SDG 13 (climate action).

Food, Energy and Water Nexus: An Urban Living Laboratory Development for Sustainable Systems Transition

From a climate change perspective, the governance of natural common-pool resources—the commons—is a key point in the challenge of transitioning to sustainability. This paper presents the main strategic advances of the São Paulo Urban Living Laboratory (ULL) regarding Food, Energy and Water (FEW Nexus) analysis and modelling at the border of a high biodiverse forest in a peri-urban region in southeast Brazil. It is a replicable and scalable method concerning FEW governance. The FEW Nexus is an analytical guide to actions that will enable a colossal set of innovative processes that the transition to sustainability presupposes. Sustainable governance of the FEW dimensions, seen as an innovation-based process, is approached by a decision making tool to understand the past and future dynamics of the system. The governance framework is based on a multi-criteria and multi-attribute set of sustainability-relevant factors used as indicators to model complex system dynamics (SD) and the stakeholders’ future expectations through a Delphi approach. Based on the three main dimensions of the Ecosystem Services Approach—Physical and Material Conditions, Attributes of Communities, and Rules-in-Use—the tool comprises thirteen specific sustainability indicators such as water and carbon footprints, land use social development, payment for ecosystem services, and land use gain indices. Its development was designed to generate a long-term network of socioenvironmental stakeholders’ decision making processes and collective learning about a higher level of sustainable systems. System Dynamics modelling demonstrates the associations between sustainability indicators and the impacts of payment for ecosystem services on the land use social development index, or on the trophic state index. The Delphi foresight approach, using the Promethee-Gaia method, allows us to understand the positions of multiple agents regarding the transition process. In this context, decision making tools can be very useful and effective in answering the “how to” questions of ULLs and paving the way for transition, providing collective planning and decision support frameworks for sustainability transition management.

On the Future(s) of Energy Communities in the German Energy Transition: A Derivation of Transformation Pathways

Active participation of citizens in the sustainable energy transition—particularly in energy communities—is explicitly desired by the European Union and considered vital for a successful transformation of Europe’s energy system. Currently, energy communities, i.e., citizen-led groups generating energy from renewable sources can be found across Europe, though current numbers are small. However, it is expected that the majority of EU households will be active in some form in the generation of energy by 2050. In order to understand how such a development could come about, and if desired, how it could be ensured, we developed and applied a quasi-dynamic model using the Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) approach and with it analyzed and assessed such a transition in detail. Data for the CIB model was derived from case studies, interviews, three surveys including two discrete choice experiments, expert workshops, and complementary secondary data. A central consideration of the model is a differentiated representation of the heterogeneity of actors in society and their interactions. Main results obtained from the application of the model are possible transformation pathways of citizen participation in the energy transition of Germany. A key finding was that if current trends continue, a citizen-driven energy transition based on energy communities will unlikely be successful. We conclude that several framework conditions must change simultaneously from the status quo so that different social groups in society can be active in the generation of energy. These include changes such as the abolition of hindering regulations and the expansion of financial support schemes with a focus on lower socioeconomic groups. Furthermore, only in a combination of conducive social factors such as neighborhood cohesion and conducive social influence, as well as favorable economic conditions, can energy communities become an important player in Germany’s future energy system.

Comparative Analysis of Five Widely-Used Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods to Evaluate Clean Energy Technologies: A Case Study

Over the last decade, the total primary energy consumption has increased from 479 × 1015 BTU in 2010 to 528 × 1015 BTU in 2020. To address this ever-increasing energy demand, as well as prevent environmental pollution, clean energies are presented as a potential solution. In this regard, evaluating and selecting the most appropriate clean energy solution for a specific area is of particular importance. Therefore, in this study, a comparative analysis in Jiangsu province in China was performed by describing and implementing five prominent multi-criteria decision-making methods in the field of energy technology selection, including SAW, TOPSIS, ELECTRE, VIKOR, and COPRAS. The decision problem here consists of four clean energy options, including solar photovoltaic, wind, nuclear, and biomass, which have been evaluated by twelve basic and important criteria for ranking clean energy options. The obtained results, according to all five MCDM methods, indicate that solar photovoltaic was the optimal option in this study, followed by wind energy. The nuclear and biomass options placed third and fourth, respectively, except in the ELECTRE method ranking, in which both options scored the same and thus neither was superior. Finally, by conducting a comprehensive two-stage sensitivity analysis, in the first stage, it was found that changes in the weights of land use and water consumption criteria had the greatest impact on the performance of options, among which biomass and nuclear showed high sensitivity to variations in criteria weights. In the second stage, by defining five scenarios, the ranking of options was evaluated from different aspects so that the decision maker/organization would be able to make appropriate decisions in different situations.

Transmission Expansion Planning for the Optimization of Renewable Energy Integration in the Sulawesi Electricity System

In order to meet the growth in demand and the renewable energy integration target, the Sulawesi Electricity System (SES) should be expanded. Currently, the SES is divided into two systems, namely South and North Sulawesi. These two systems have different characteristics, such as the system size, reliability and operational cost. North Sulawesi is smaller, weaker and more expensive than the South System. In order to improve the system reliability, generation and transmission expansion planning should be executed simultaneously to meet the economical investment cost and satisfy the reliability standard. For this purpose, the necessity of a backbone system with a higher voltage level than the existing 150 kV system should be considered, including the interconnection option between the two existing systems in Sulawesi. A methodology based on economic and technical criteria was developed to determine the backbone voltage level. Two voltage level options were considered, namely 275 and 500 kV. Several criteria were considered in order to determine the backbone voltage level, including the economic voltage, the line-loading limit, N-1 contingency, short circuiting, transient stability, voltage stability and small signal stability. The backbone voltage candidates should fulfil all of the criteria. The simulation was conducted in base- and high-demand scenarios, considering the fluctuation of future economic growth. The load flow and the dynamic analysis were simulated in a DIgSILENT Power Factory environment. The results showed that the 275 kV backbone, which was built in 2022, would violate three criteria: the economic voltage, N-1 contingency and voltage stability. On the other hand, the 500 kV backbone voltage level fulfills all of the criteria. The result of this research was considered in the electricity planning documents in Sulawesi. From a technical and economical perspective, the 500 kV backbone was chosen for the SES.