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Alaimo LS, Ciaschini C, Mariani F, Cudlinova E, Postigliola M, Strangio D, Salvati L. Unraveling population trends in Italy (1921-2021) with spatial econometrics. Sci Rep 2023; 13:20358. [PMID: 37989838 PMCID: PMC10663467 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-46906-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2023] [Accepted: 11/07/2023] [Indexed: 11/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Testing density-dependence and path-dependence in long-term population dynamics under differentiated local contexts contributes to delineate the changing role of socioeconomic forces at the base of regional disparities. Despite a millenary settlement history, such issue has been rarely investigated in Europe, and especially in highly divided countries such as those in the Mediterranean region. Using econometric modeling to manage spatial heterogeneity, our study verifies the role of selected drivers of population growth at ten times between 1921 and 2021 in more than 8000 Italian municipalities verifying density-dependent and path-dependent dynamics. Results of global and quantile (spatial) regressions highlight a differential impact of density and (lagged) population growth on demographic dynamics along the urban cycle in Italy. Being weakly significant in the inter-war period (1921-1951), econometric models totalized a high goodness-of-fit in correspondence with compact urbanization (1951-1981). Model's fit declined in the following decades (1981-2021) reflecting suburbanization and counter-urbanization. Density-dependence and path-dependence were found significant and, respectively, positive or negative, with compact urbanization, and much less intense with suburbanization and counter-urbanization. A spatial econometric investigation of density-dependent and path-dependent mechanisms of population dynamics provided an original explanation of metropolitan cycles, delineating the evolution of socioeconomic (local) systems along the urban-rural gradient.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leonardo Salvatore Alaimo
- Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, 00185, Rome, Italy.
| | - Clio Ciaschini
- Department of Social and Economic Sciences, Polytechnic University of Marche, Piazzale C. Martelli 8, 60121, Ancona, Italy
| | - Francesca Mariani
- Department of Social and Economic Sciences, Polytechnic University of Marche, Piazzale C. Martelli 8, 60121, Ancona, Italy
| | - Eva Cudlinova
- Department of Economics, University of South Bohemia, Branišovská 1645/31A, České Budějovice 2, 370 05, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
| | - Michele Postigliola
- Department of Methods and Models for Economics, Territory and Finance, Faculty of Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, Via del Castro Laurenziano 9, 00161, Rome, Italy.
| | - Donatella Strangio
- Department of Methods and Models for Economics, Territory and Finance, Faculty of Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, Via del Castro Laurenziano 9, 00161, Rome, Italy.
| | - Luca Salvati
- Department of Methods and Models for Economics, Territory and Finance, Faculty of Economics, Sapienza University of Rome, Via del Castro Laurenziano 9, 00161, Rome, Italy.
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Ageing Urban Population Prognostic between 2020 and 2050 in Transylvania Region (Romania). SUSTAINABILITY 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/su13179940] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Population ageing represents a dramatic scenario and a progressive process inducing major changes in the dynamics of the population and especially in the age structure. The ageing population process is a phenomenon relevant to define not only demographic but also social, cultural, and territorial transformations in relation to the urban settlements. In this article, we present a case study regarding the ageing process persistent in urban areas from the counties of the Transylvania region. The present study emphasizing the evolution of the older adults age group between 2015 and 2019, drawing a forecast model for the prognosis period 2020–2050. The tendencies of the population decline process are revealed by the outcomes of the ageing index, outlining some long-term effects of population ageing over the years. The study of this phenomenon reveals an important framework at the regional level of Transylvania and points out the means to determine its existence in other regions or countries, since it affects the urban population evolution and its dynamics.
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