Ecological Quality Response to Multi-Scenario Land-Use Changes in the Heihe River Basin

Spatio-temporal evolution of land use and its eco-environmental effects in the Caohai National Nature Reserve of China

With the rapid development of social economy, the ecological environment problems caused by the change of wetland land use have been widely concerned. This paper takes the Caohai National Nature Reserve (CNNR) of China as the research object on the basis of referring to previous research results. Firstly, the remote sensing data was employed to examine the spatio-temporal evolution process of the CNNR from three aspects: land use structure change, land use dynamic degree and land use space change. Then the change of ecological environment quality was studied from the greenness, the wetness, the dryness and the heat. Based on the spatiotemporal changes of land use types and ecological environment quality in the CNNR from 2000 to 2020, a comprehensive index, the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI), was constructed to analyze the ecological environmental effects of land use changes. The results indicate that the land use changes in the CNNR went through two major periods: first, a period of rapid decline in cultivated land, and second, a period of sharp increase in constructed land. During the period of rapid decline in cultivated land, the ecological environment quality in the study area showed an upward trend. However, during the period of increased constructed land, the ecological environment quality gradually stabilized. This study provides a basis for the coordinated development of the ecological environment and social economy in the CNNR area.

Urban Ecological Environment Quality Evaluation and Territorial Spatial Planning Response: Application to Changsha, Central China

Scientific territorial spatial planning is of great significance in the realization of the sustainable development goals in China, especially in the context of China's ecological civilization construction and territorial spatial planning. However, limited research has been carried out to understand the spatio-temporal change in EEQ and territorial spatial planning. In this study, Changsha County and six districts of Changsha City were selected as the research objects. Based on the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) model, the spatio-temporal changes in the EEQ and spatial planning response in the study area during 2003-2018 were analyzed. The results reveal that (1) the EEQ of Changsha declined and then rose between 2003 and 2018, showing an overall decreasing trend. The average RSEI declined from 0.532 in 2003 to 0.500 in 2014 and then increased to 0.523 in 2018, with an overall decrease of 1.7%. (2) In terms of spatial pattern changes, the Xingma Group, the Airport Group and the Huangli Group in the east of the Xiangjiang River had the most serious EEQ degradation. The EEQ degradation of Changsha showed an expanding and polycentric decentralized grouping pattern. (3) Massive construction land expansion during rapid urbanization caused significant EEQ degradation in Changsha. Particularly, the areas with low EEQ were concentrated in the areas with concentrated industrial land. Scientific territorial spatial planning and strict control were conducive to regional EEQ improvement. (4) The prediction using the urban ecological model demonstrates that every 0.549 unit increase in NDVI or 0.2 unit decrease in NDBSI can improve the RSEI of the study area by 0.1 unit, thus improving EEQ. In the future territorial spatial planning and construction of Changsha, it is necessary to promote the transformation and upgrading of low-end industries into high-end manufacturing industries and control the scale of inefficient industrial land. The EEQ degradation caused by industrial land expansion needs to be noted. All of these findings can provide valuable information for relevant decision-makers to formulate ecological environment protection strategies and conduct future territorial spatial planning.

Multi-Scenario Simulation to Predict Ecological Risk Posed by Urban Sprawl with Spontaneous Growth: A Case Study of Quanzhou

The rapid expansion of different types of urban land continues to erode natural and semi-natural ecological space and causes irreversible ecological damage to rapidly industrialized and urbanized areas. This work considers Quanzhou, a typical industrial and trade city in southeastern China as the research area and uses a Markov chain integrated into the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model to simulate the urban expansion of Quanzhou from 2005 to 2018. The PLUS model uses the random forest algorithm to determine the contribution of driving factors and simulate the organic and spontaneous growth process based on the seed generation mechanism of multi-class random patches. Next, leveraging the importance of ecosystem services and ecological sensitivity as indicators of evaluation endpoints, we explore the temporal and spatial evolution of ecological risks from 2018 to 2031 under the scenarios of business as usual (BAU), industrial priority, and urban transformation scenarios. The evaluation endpoints cover water conservation service, soil conservation service, biodiversity maintenance service, soil erosion sensitivity, riverside sensitivity, and soil fertility. The ecological risk studied in this work involves the way in which different types of construction land expansion can possibly affect the ecosystem. The ecological risk index is divided into five levels. The results show that during the calibration simulation period from 2005 to 2018 the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient reached 91.77% and 0.878, respectively. When the percent-of-seeds (PoS) parameter of random patch seeds equals 0.0001, the figure of merit of the simulated urban construction land improves by 3.9% compared with the logistic-based cellular automata model (Logistic-CA) considering organic growth. When PoS = 0.02, the figure of merit of the simulated industrial and mining land is 6.5% higher than that of the Logistic-CA model. The spatial reconstruction of multiple types of construction land under different urban development goals shows significant spatial differentiation on the district and county scale. In the industrial-priority scenario, the area of industrial and mining land is increased by 20% compared with the BAU scenario, but the high-level risk area is 42.5% larger than in the BAU scenario. Comparing the spatial distribution of risks under the BAU scenario, the urban transition scenario is mainly manifested as the expansion of medium-level risk areas around Quanzhou Bay and the southern region. In the future, the study area should appropriately reduce the agglomeration scale of urban development and increase the policy efforts to guide the development of industrial land to the southeast.