Spatial Layout Optimization and Simulation of Cultivated Land Based on the Life Community Theory in a Mountainous and Hilly Area of China

Ecological niche measurement and high-quality development of "the Belt and Road" core area

A new stage in promoting the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt Core Area, and Xinjiang has been transformed from a relatively closed inland area into an open border. In order to promote the high-quality development of Southern Xinjiang and solve the imbalance contradiction between the development of the Northern Xinjiang and Southern Xinjiang, taking the four districts in Southern Xinjiang as the study area, constructing a high-quality development ecological niche index system of three levels, namely economic, social and ecological, adopting the entropy method to assign weights to the evaluation indexes, and measuring the ecological niche width and the degree of ecological niche overlap of this region in the period from 2011 to 2020. The results show that: Firstly, tourism has the greatest impact on the ecological niche of economic development in state N, with a weighting of 14.18%; Secondly, the ecological status width of economic development in state N demonstrates a structural characteristic of "low level and low gap". The average value of ecological niche width is at class III, indicating a low development status and weak regional influence; Thirdly, the ecological niche overlap of state N is significantly influenced by spatial factors. Regions Z and S are closer together, resulting in higher competition for resource utilization and an average ecological niche overlap at class II. The other two regions are at class III. According to the theory of ecological niche expansion and separation, a specialization separation strategy should be adopted for areas with "low width and high overlap", and a strengthening expansion strategy should be adopted for areas with "low width and low overlap", to optimize the structure of ecological niches and promote high-quality development of the region.

Evaluating the Impact of the Highway Infrastructure Construction and the Threshold Effect on Cultivated Land Use Efficiency: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

Highway infrastructure construction is regarded as one of the effective policy tools used to promote the flow of production factors and upgrade the industrial structure in China, and it may also be an important precondition to improving Cultivated Land Use Efficiency (CLUE). This paper uses a slack-based model (SBM) based on provincial-level panel data from China from 2004 to 2017 to measure CLUE. Then a dynamic spatial Durbin model and a panel threshold regression model were established to analyze the spatial spillover effect and threshold effect of highway infrastructure construction on CLUE. The results showed that the CLUE of China has a fluctuating but overall rising trend. The dynamic spatial Durbin model demonstrated that the Chinese government’s policy of supporting highway infrastructure construction has played an important role in promoting CLUE by spatial spillover effects, and the driving effect of expressways and first–second highways on CLUE is particularly significant in this regard. More interestingly, the results of the panel threshold regression indicated that there is a single threshold effect in the influence of highway infrastructure construction on CLUE. This paper suggested that the spatial correlation between regions should be considered in the construction of regional highway infrastructure and land use planning to improve CLUE. Moreover, the planning of highway infrastructure construction should be balanced according to the actual demand of economic and agricultural development, so as to promote the full flow and reasonable allocation of cultivated land use factors among regions.

Multi-Scenario Dynamic Simulation of Urban Agglomeration Development on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, China, with the Goal of High-Quality Urban Construction

The construction of high-quality urban agglomeration has become a guiding strategy for future urban development. Based on the current development status of urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the concepts of environmental protection, harmonious coexistence, and sustainable development were combined in the present study. Land cover data for 2010 and 2020 as well as data on various driving factors and limiting factors were selected to simulate and forecast the land change of the urban agglomeration under environmental constraints. At the same time, to simulate the natural development scenario, farmland protection scenario, and ecological protection scenario for the land development of urban agglomeration on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains in 2030, the future land use simulation and Markov (FLUS-Markov) model and the urban growth boundary (UGB) model were combined. The following conclusions may be drawn from the results. (1) Using the land cover in 2010 to simulate the land cover in 2020, the kappa value was 0.724, the overall accuracy was 82.9%, and the FOM value was 0.245, exhibiting a high accuracy. (2) Under the three scenarios, the degree of expansion varied significantly from 2020 to 2030, but the proportion of construction area remained stable at 3%. Under the natural development scenario, urban land expansion was the most obvious, followed by the farmland protection scenario, while under the ecological protection scenario, construction land expansion was the least obvious. (3) Under the three scenarios, the expansion of construction land was mainly dominated by the encroachment of grassland, and the edge expansion mode was characterized by concentrated contiguous land. (4) The kernel density results show that the urban area exhibited a year-by-year expansion, and the best suitable development area was the surrounding farmland. (5) Under the three scenarios, the delineation of UGB in urban agglomeration at the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains was reasonable and effective, and it can provide a relevant reference for the government’s future urban development and layout planning.

Spatial Simulation of Land-Use Development of Feixi County, China, Based on Optimized Productive–Living–Ecological Functions

Rural revitalization places higher demands on the productive–living–ecological (P-L-E) spaces of towns and cities. It is necessary, therefore, to identify, evaluate, and optimize P-L-E spaces to better guide spatial planning. Existing studies typically evaluate a single space, lacking a comprehensive consideration of whole-area integration. This study, therefore, developed a coupled spatial/developmental suitability evaluation system for Feixi County, Anhui Province, China, combining spatial quality evaluation, a coupled coordination model, and future land-use simulation (FLUS) model. The spatial quality of Feixi County in 2010, 2015, and 2020 was obtained by applying the evaluation system to the spatial development pattern. The results were analyzed and verified using the landscape pattern index and development suitability evaluation. The results showed the following: (1) The coupling coordination degree of the region increased from 0.131 to 0.372, changing from low to moderate coordination. (2) Based on the FLUS model to better capture the uncertainty and stochastic basis of the development in the study area. The kappa coefficient and Figure of Merit (FoM) index of the land-use simulation accuracy verification index were 0.7647 and 0.0508, respectively, and the logistic regression ROC values were above 0.75, thus meeting accuracy requirements. This demonstrated that the simulation model—based on a factor library of the evaluation of resource and environmental carrying capacity and suitability for development and construction—could better reflect future land-use changes. (3) The simulation showed that under the baseline development scenario, the area’s spatial layout is too concentrated in terms of construction land, ignoring P-L-E coordination. Under the ecological optimization scenario, high-quality ecological space is ensured, but other types of spaces are lacking. Under the comprehensive guidance scenario, lagging ecological space is optimized and P-L-E spatial development is enhanced through aggregation, clustering, concentration and integration. This way, the spatial quantity structure and distribution form can meet P-L-E spatial development needs in Feixi County. In this study, on the basis of scientific assessment of the current P-L-E space, the FLUS model was applied to carry out a scenario simulation according to different objectives. Moreover, based on the construction of the coupling system of human–nature system, the driving factors were improved to enhance the prediction accuracy of the FLUS model. This study’s findings can help improve the scientificity, flexibility and management efficiency of Feixi County’s P-L-E spatial layout, thereby supporting its sustainable development.