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Zhao H, Fan X, Bai Z, Ma L, Wang C, Havlík P, Cui Z, Balkovic J, Herrero M, Shi Z, Chang J. Holistic food system innovation strategies can close up to 80% of China's domestic protein gaps while reducing global environmental impacts. NATURE FOOD 2024; 5:581-591. [PMID: 38982281 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-024-01011-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2023] [Accepted: 06/13/2024] [Indexed: 07/11/2024]
Abstract
China's imports of livestock feed, particularly protein-rich feeds, pose challenges to global environmental sustainability. Achieving protein self-sufficiency for food and feed in China without exceeding environmental boundaries requires integrated measures and optimization of China's food system. Here we propose holistic food system innovation strategies consisting of three components-technological innovation, integrated spatial planning and demand-side options-to reduce protein import dependency and promote global environmental sustainability. We find that food system innovations can close almost 80% of China's future protein gaps while reducing 57-85% of agricultural import-embodied environmental impacts. Deploying these innovations would also reduce greenhouse gas emissions (22-27%) and people's harmful exposure to ammonia (73-81%) compared with the baseline scenario in 2050. Technological innovations play a key role in closing protein gaps, while integrated crop-livestock spatial planning is imperative for achieving environmental and health targets.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao Zhao
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, China
- College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Xiangwen Fan
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, China
| | - Zhaohai Bai
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, China
| | - Lin Ma
- Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, China.
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China.
| | - Chao Wang
- College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Petr Havlík
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Zhenling Cui
- College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, National Academy of Agriculture Green Development, China Agricultural University, Beijing, China
| | - Juraj Balkovic
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Mario Herrero
- Department of Global Development, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences and Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
| | - Zhou Shi
- College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Jinfeng Chang
- College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
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