A Novel Forecasting Methodology for Sustainable Management of Defense Technology

Collaborative Bullwhip Effect-Oriented Bi-Objective Optimization for Inference-Based Weighted Moving Average Forecasting in Decentralized Supply Chain

Downstream demand inference (DDI) emerged in the supply chain theory, allowing an upstream actor to infer the demand occurring at his formal downstream actor without need of information sharing. Literature showed that simultaneously minimizing the average inventory level and the bullwhip effect isn't possible. In this paper, the authors show that demand inference is not only possible between direct supply chain links, but also at any downstream level. The authors propose a bi-objective approach to reduce both performance indicators by adopting the genetic algorithm. Simulation results show that bullwhip effect can be reduced highly if specific configurations are selected from the Pareto frontier. Numerical results show that demand's time-series structure, lead-times, holding and shortage costs, don't affect the behaviour of the bullwhip effect indicator. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis show that the optimization approach is robust when faced to varied initializations. Finally, the authors conclude the paper with managerial implications in multi-level supply chains.

Predicting technological innovation in new energy vehicles based on an improved radial basis function neural network for policy synergy

Policy synergy is necessary to promote technological innovation and sustainable industrial development. A radial basis function (RBF) neural network model with an automatic coding machine and fractional momentum was proposed for the prediction of technological innovation. Policy keywords for China’s new energy vehicle policies issued over the years were quantified by the use of an Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model. The training of the neural network model was completed by using policy keywords, synergy was measured as the input layer, and the number of synchronous patent applications was measured as the output layer. The predictive efficacies of the traditional neural network model and the improved neural network model were compared again to verify the applicability and accuracy of the improved neural network. Finally, the influence of the degree of synergy on technological innovation was revealed by changing the intensity of policy measures. This study provides a basis for the relevant departments to formulate industrial policies and improve innovation performance by enterprises.

Bayesian Structural Time Series and Regression Modeling for Sustainable Technology Management

Many companies take the sustainability of their technologies very seriously, because companies with sustainable technologies are better able to survive in the market. Thus, sustainable technology analysis is important issue in management of technology (MOT). In this paper, we study the management of sustainable technology (MOST). This focuses on the sustainable technology in various MOT fields. In the MOST, sustainable technology analysis is dependent on time periods. We propose a method of sustainable technology analysis using a Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model based on time series data. In addition, we use the Bayesian regression to find the relational structure between technologies. To show the performance of our method and how the method can be applied to practical works, we carry out a case study using the patent data related to artificial intelligence technologies.

Sustainable Technology Analysis Using Data Envelopment Analysis and State Space Models

To find sustainable technology in various areas, we propose an analytical methodology based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the state space model (SSM). DEA is an analytical method used to compare the efficiencies and performances of several items. In DEA, for sustainable technology analysis, the items of DEA can be the technological keywords or international patent classification (IPC) codes in patent documents. In this paper, the proposed method is used to find the relative performance of different patent keywords using comparison and evaluation. We apply this methodology to compare the technological efficiencies between patent keywords for sustainable technology analysis. We apply the additive model and directional distance function of DEA to develop the proposed methodology for building the technological structure of target technology. In addition, we forecast the future trend of target technology using the SSM and find the area of sustainable technology by its result. The SSM is well suited for time series forecasting on technology analysis. We extract the IPC codes from patent documents for the SSM. In our research, we combine the results of DEA and the SSM to find the area of technological sustainability. To illustrate the validity and performance of our research, we conduct a case study using the patent documents used and registered by Apple.

A Methodology of Partner Selection for Sustainable Industry-University Cooperation Based on LDA Topic Model

In today’s knowledge-based society, industry-university cooperation (IUC) is recognized as an effective tool for technological innovation. Many studies have shown that selecting the right partner is essential to the success of the IUC. Although there have been a lot of studies on the criteria for selecting a suitable partner for IUC or strategic alliances, there has been a problem of making decisions depending on the qualitative judgment of experts or staff. While related works using patent analysis enabled the quantitative analysis and comparison of potential research partners, they overlooked the fact that there are several sub-technologies in one specific technology domain and that the applicant’s research concentration and competency are not the same for every sub-technology. This study suggests a systematic methodology that combines the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model and the clustering algorithm in order to classify the sub-technology categories of a particular technology domain, and identifies the best college partners in each category. In addition, a similar-patent density (SPD) index was proposed and utilized for an objective comparison of potential university partners. In order to investigate the practical applicability of the proposed methodology, we conducted experiments using real patent data on the electric vehicle domain obtained from the Korean Intellectual Property Office. As a result, we identified 10 research and development sectors wherein Hyundai Motor Company (HMC) focuses using LDA and clustering. The universities with the highest values of SPD for each sector were chosen to be the most suitable partners of HMC for collaborative research.

Bayesian Count Data Modeling for Finding Technological Sustainability

Technology developments change society, and society demands new and innovative technology developments. We analyze technology to understand society and technology itself. Much research related to technology analysis has been introduced in various fields. Most of it has been on patent analysis. This is because detailed and accurate results of research and development are patented. In this paper, we study a new patent analysis method based on the count data model and Bayesian regression analysis. Using the count data model, we analyzed the technological keywords extracted from the collected patent documents. We used the prior distribution of Bayesian statistics to reflect the experience and knowledge of the relevant technological experts in the analysis model. Moreover, we applied the proposed model to find sustainable technologies. Finding and developing sustainable technologies is an important activity for companies and research institutes to maintain their technological competitiveness. To illustrate how our modeling could be applied to real domains, we carried out a case study using the patent documents related to artificial intelligence.

Technical and Humanities Students’ Perspectives on the Development and Sustainability of Artificial Intelligence (AI)

This study investigates how the development of artificial intelligence (AI) is perceived by the students enrolled in technical and humanistic specializations at two universities in Timisoara. It has an emphasis on identifying their attitudes towards the phenomenon, on the connotations associated with it, and on the possible impact of artificial intelligence on certain areas of the social life. Moreover, the present study reveals the students’ perceptions on the sustainability of these changes and developments, and therefore aims to reduce the possible negative impact on consumers, and at anticipate the changes that AI will produce in the future. In order to collect the data, the authors have used a quantitative research method. A questionnaire-based sociological survey was completed by 928 students, with a representation error of only ±3%. The analysis has shown that a great number of respondents have a positive attitude towards the emergence of AI, who believe it will influence society for the better. The results have also underscored underlying differences based on the respondents’ type of specialization (humanistic or technical), and their gender.