A Fifty-Year Sustainability Assessment of Italian Agro-Forest Districts

Framing socioecological complexity: The long-term evolution of multiple dimensions of desertification risk in Italy

Desertification risk depends on the interplay of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers, among which climate change, soil depletion, landscape modifications, and biodiversity decline are key factors of change in Southern Europe. The present study introduces a diachronic analysis of desertification risk in Italy adopting a multidimensional approach based on four dimensions (ecological, economic, demographic, and administrative) assessed at three dates (1961, 1991, and 2011). These risk components were evaluated separately in Southern Italy, a formerly affected region (sensu United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification), and Northern/Central Italy, a nonaffected region in the country. All risk measures document how the divide between affected and nonaffected regions in Italy has gradually reduced. Because of local warming and rising human pressure, Northern Italy has recently displayed a level of desertification risk close to those observed in Southern Italy over the last 30 years. These results suggest a thorough revision of the national classification of risky areas, that may inform more specific mitigation and adaptation policies responding effectively to recent socioenvironmental trends and local (economic) dynamics. The intrinsic system's evolution observed at both regional and national level in Italy may be generalized to a broader European context. Our work finally documents the appropriateness of a multidimensional definition of desertification risk grounded on the joint analysis of ecological, demographic, economic, and administrative indicators. A comprehensive knowledge of socioeconomic patterns and processes of change contributes to more precise scenario modeling and design of integrated strategies mitigating desertification risk.

Toward spatially polarized human pressure? A dynamic factor analysis of ecological stability and the role of territorial gradients in Czech Republic

In light of global change, research on ecosystem dynamics and the related environmental policies are increasingly required to face with the inherent polarization in areas with low and high human pressure. Differential levels of human pressure are hypothesized to reflect development paths toward ecological stability of local systems vis à vis socioeconomic resilience. To delineate the latent nexus between socioeconomic development paths and ecological stability of local systems, we proposed a multidimensional, diachronic analysis of 28 indicators of territorial disparities, and ecological stability in 206 homogeneous administrative units of Czech Republic over almost 30 years (1990-2018). Mixing time-invariant factors with time-varying socio-environmental attributes, a dynamic factor analysis investigated the latent relationship between ecosystem functions, environmental pressures, and the background socioeconomic characteristics of the selected spatial units. We identified four geographical gradients in Czech Republic (namely elevation, economic agglomeration, demographic structure, and soil imperviousness) at the base of territorial divides associated with the increased polarization in areas with low and high human pressure. The role of urbanization, agriculture, and loss of natural habitats reflective of rising human pressure was illustrated along the selected gradients. Finally, policy implications of the (changing) geography of ecological disturbances and local development paths in Czech Republic were briefly discussed.

Did COVID-19 enlarge spatial disparities in population dynamics? A comparative, multivariate approach for Italy

A short-term issue that has been occasionally investigated in the current literature is if (and, eventually, how) population dynamics (directly or indirectly) driven by COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to enlarge regional divides in specific demographic processes and dimensions. To verify this assumption, our study run an exploratory multivariate analysis of ten indicators representative of different demographic phenomena (fertility, mortality, nuptiality, internal and international migration) and the related population outcomes (natural balance, migration balance, total growth). We developed a descriptive analysis of the statistical distribution of the ten demographic indicators using eight metrics that assess formation (and consolidation) of spatial divides, controlling for shifts over time in both central tendency, dispersion, and distributional shape regimes. All indicators were made available over 20 years (2002-2021) at a relatively detailed spatial scale (107 NUTS-3 provinces) in Italy. COVID-19 pandemic exerted an impact on Italian population because of intrinsic (e.g. a particularly older population age structure compared with other advanced economies) and extrinsic (e.g. the early start of the pandemic spread compared with the neighboring European countries) factors. For such reasons, Italy may represent a sort of 'worst' demographic scenario for other countries affected by COVID-19 and the results of this empirical study can be informative when delineating policy measures (with both economic and social impact) able to mitigate the effect of pandemics on demographic balance and improve the adaptation capacity of local societies to future pandemic's crises.

Delineating the Intrinsic, Long-Term Path of Land Degradation: A Spatially Explicit Transition Matrix for Italy, 1960-2010

Vulnerability to land degradation in southern Europe has increased substantially in the last decades because of climate and land-use change, soil deterioration, and rising human pressure. The present work focuses on a quantitative evaluation of changes over time in the level of vulnerability to land degradation of a Mediterranean country (Italy) using a composite indicator, the environmentally sensitive area index (ESAI), which is the final outcome of a complex model conceived to assess land vulnerability on the basis of climate, soil, vegetation, and human pressure. Considering four different levels of vulnerability to land degradation (not affected, potentially affected, fragile, and critical), the main trajectories of this index were highlighted in a long-time perspective (1960-2010), discriminating dynamics over two sub-periods (1960-1990 and 1990-2010). The empirical results at a very detailed spatial scale (1 km² grid) reflect spatial consolidation of degradation hot-spots over time. However, aggregated trajectories of change indicate an overall improvement in the environmental conditions between 1990 and 2010 compared with what is observed during the first period (1960-1990). Worse environmental conditions concerned southern Italian regions with a dry climate and poor soil conditions in the first time interval, large parts of northern Italy, traditionally recognized as a wet and affluent agricultural region, experienced increasing levels of land vulnerability in the second time interval. Being classified as an unaffected region according with the Italian national action plan (NAP), the expansion of (originally sparse) degradation hot-spots in northern Italy, reflective of an overall increase in critical areas, suggests a substantial re-thinking of the Italian NAP. This may lead to a redesign of individual regional action plans (RAPs) implementing place-specific approaches and comprehensive measures to be adopted to mitigate land degradation.

Urbanisation-driven land degradation and socioeconomic challenges in peri-urban areas: Insights from Southern Europe

Climate change and landscape transformation have led to rapid expansion of peri-urban areas globally, representing new 'laboratories' for the study of human-nature relationships aiming at land degradation management. This paper contributes to the debate on human-driven land degradation processes by highlighting how natural and socioeconomic forces trigger soil depletion and environmental degradation in peri-urban areas. The aim was to classify and synthesise the interactions of urbanisation-driven factors with direct or indirect, on-site or off-site, and short-term or century-scale impacts on land degradation, focussing on Southern Europe as a paradigmatic case to address this issue. Assuming complex and multifaceted interactions among influencing factors, a relevant contribution to land degradation was shown to derive from socioeconomic drivers, the most important of which were population growth and urban sprawl. Viewing peri-urban areas as socio-environmental systems adapting to intense socioeconomic transformations, these factors were identified as forming complex environmental 'syndromes' driven by urbanisation. Based on this classification, we suggested three key measures to support future land management in Southern European peri-urban areas.

Toward a spatially explicit analysis of land vulnerability to degradation: a country-level approach supporting policy strategies

Vulnerability to land degradation in Mediterranean Europe increased substantially in the last decades because of the latent interplay of climate and land-use change, progressive soil deterioration, and rising human pressure. The present study provides a quantitative evaluation of the intrinsic change over time in the level of vulnerability to land degradation over a representative Mediterranean area (Italy) using a normative indicator, the percentage of land classified as 'critical' in total area. This indicator derives from a spatially explicit elaboration of the ESA (Environmental Sensitive Area) Index (ESAI), a standard methodology of land classification considering different levels of vulnerability to degradation at a particularly refined spatial scale (1 km²). This indicator was calculated over a relatively long time interval (1960-2010) and aggregated at the geographical scale of administrative regions in Italy, a relevant domain in the implementation of the National Action Plan (NAP) to combat desertification and the adoption of individual Regional Action Plans (RAP). A significant - but spatially heterogeneous - increase in 'critical' land was observed in Italy, leading to distinctive dynamics in northern/central regions and southern regions. Climate aridity and anthropogenic pressure leveraged the sudden vulnerability in some marginal land of Northern Italy - a region classified as unexposed to desertification risk - paralleling the levels observed in some districts of Southern Italy, an 'affected' region to desertification risk. These results suggest a re-thinking of mitigation policies proposed in the Italian NAP and a redesign of the RAPs toward place-specific adaptation measures, especially in the 'less exposed' Northern Italian region.

Found in Complexity, Lost in Fragmentation: Putting Soil Degradation in a Landscape Ecology Perspective

The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) assumes spatial disparities in land resources as a key driver of soil degradation and early desertification processes all over the world. Although regional divides in soil quality have been frequently observed in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, the impact of landscape configuration on the spatial distribution of sensitive soils was poorly investigated in Southern Europe, an affected region sensu UNCCD. Our study proposes a spatially explicit analysis of 16 ecological metrics (namely, patch size and shape, fragmentation, interspersion, and juxtaposition) applied to three classes of a landscape with different levels of exposure to land degradation ('non-affected', 'fragile', and 'critical'). Land classification was based on the Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) calculated for Italy at 3 time points along a 50-year period (1960, 1990, 2010). Ecological metrics were calculated at both landscape and class scale and summarized for each Italian province-a relevant policy scale for the Italian National Action Plan (NAP) to combat desertification. With the mean level of soil sensitivity rising over time almost everywhere in Italy, 'non-affected' land became more fragmented, the number of 'fragile' and 'critical' patches increased significantly, and the average patch size of both classes followed the same trend. Such dynamics resulted in intrinsically disordered landscapes, with (i) larger (and widely connected) 'critical' land patches, (ii) spatially diffused and convoluted 'fragile' land patches, and (iii) a more interspersed and heterogeneous matrix of 'non affected' land. Based on these results, we discussed the effects of increasing numbers and sizes of 'critical' patches in terms of land degradation. A sudden expansion of 'critical' land may determine negative environmental consequences since (i) the increasing number of these patches may trigger desertification risk and (ii) the buffering effect of neighboring, non-affected land is supposed to be less efficient, and this contains a downward spiral toward land degradation less effectively. Policy strategies proposed in the NAPs of affected countries are required to account more explicitly on the intrinsic, spatio-temporal evolution of 'critical' land patches in affected regions.

Spatially Balanced Sampling for Validation of GlobeLand30 Using Landscape Pattern-Based Inclusion Probability

Global and local land-cover mapping products provide important data on land surface. However, the accuracy of land-cover products is the key issue for their further scientific application. There has been neglect of the relationship between inclusion probability and spatial heterogeneity in traditional spatially balanced sampling. The aim of this paper was to propose an improved spatially balanced sampling method using landscape pattern-based inclusion probability. Compared with other global land-cover datasets, Globeland30 has the advantages of high resolution and high classification accuracy. A two-stage stratified spatially balanced sampling scheme was designed and applied to the regional validation of GlobeLand30 in China. In this paper, the whole area was divided into three parts: the Tibetan Plateau region, the Northwest China region, and the East China region. The results show that 7242 sample points were selected, and the overall accuracy of GlobeLand30-2010 in China was found to be 80.46%, which is close to the third-party assessment accuracy of GlobeLand30. This method improves the representativeness of samples, reduces the classification error of remote sensing, and provides better guidance for biodiversity and sustainable development of environment.

‘Old’ Territorial Disparities and ‘New’ Spatial Patterns: Unraveling the Latent Nexus between Sustainable Development and Desertification Risk in Italy

Although sustainable development and desertification risk are hegemonic concepts in environmental economics, their intimate relationship was occasionally studied and made spatially explicit. The present study contributes to fill this knowledge gap by delineating a statistical procedure that investigates, at the municipal scale in Italy, the association between two composite indexes of sustainable development (SDI) and desertification risk (ESAI). Based on a refined knowledge of the local context, results of a geographically weighted regression delineate two distinctive territorial models reflecting the mutual interplay of sustainable development and desertification risk in Italy. The level of sustainable development was negatively associated with desertification risk in Southern Italy, a region classified as ‘affected’ based on the Italian National Action Plan (NAP) to combat desertification. These findings document a traditional ‘downward spiral’ between local development and early desertification processes, suggesting that a high desertification risk is associated with local contexts having structural conditions that lead to unsustainable development, e.g., population growth, industrial development, tourism pressure, crop intensification, agricultural mechanization, and land abandonment. In non-affected regions such as Northern and Central Italy, the level of sustainable development was positively associated with desertification risk, indicating that sustainability conditions can be unable, at least in some local contexts, to assure a significant containment of environmental degradation. Policy strategies reconnecting local development with more specific environmental conservation targets in development countries are increasingly required to adapt to (and differentiate on the base of) heterogeneous local contexts.

Caring of the Fringe? Mediterranean Desertification between Peri-Urban Ecology and Socioeconomics

This commentary debates on the role of multiple socioeconomic drivers of fringe land degradation (including, but not limited to, population and social dynamics, economic polarization, and developmental policies), as a novel contribution to the desertification assessment in Southern European metropolitan regions, a recognized hotspot of desertification at the global scale. Expanding rapidly all over the world, metropolitan regions are a geographical space where land degradation drivers and processes assume typical relationships that require further research supporting dedicated policy strategies. To assure a better comprehension of the environmental-economic nexus at the base of land degradation in peri-urban areas, we provided a classification of relevant socioeconomic and territorial dimensions in both macro-scale and micro-scale degradation processes. We also identified the related (contextual) factors that determine an increased risk of desertification in metropolitan regions. Micro-scale factors, such as agricultural prices and off-farm employment, reflect some potential causes of fringe land degradation, with a mostly local and on-site role. Technological change, agricultural prices, and household income influence land vulnerability, but their impact on fringe land degradation was less investigated and supposed to be quite moderate in most cases. Macro-scale factors such as population density, rural poverty, and environmental policies—being extensively studied on a qualitative base—were taken as important drivers of fringe land degradation, although their impact still remains undefined. Regional disparities in land resource distribution, rural poverty, and unsustainable management of environmental resources like soil and water were indirect consequences of land degradation in peri-urban districts. Based on a comparative review of theoretical and empirical findings, strategies mitigating degradation of fringe land and reducing desertification risk in potentially affected metropolitan regions were finally discussed for the Northern Mediterranean basin and generalized to other socioeconomic contexts.

Desertification risk fuels spatial polarization in 'affected' and 'unaffected' landscapes in Italy

Southern Europe is a hotspot for desertification risk because of the intimate impact of soil deterioration, landscape transformations, rising human pressure, and climate change. In this context, large-scale empirical analyses linking landscape fragmentation with desertification risk assume that increasing levels of land vulnerability to degradation are associated with significant changes in landscape structure. Using a traditional approach of landscape ecology, this study evaluates the spatial structure of a simulated landscape based on different levels of vulnerability to land degradation using 15 metrics calculated at three time points (early-1960s, early-1990s, early-2010s) in Italy. While the (average) level of land vulnerability increased over time almost in all Italian regions, vulnerable landscapes demonstrated to be increasingly fragmented, as far as the number of homogeneous patches and mean patch size are concerned. The spatial balance in affected and unaffected areas—typically observed in the 1960s—was progressively replaced with an intrinsically disordered landscape, and this process was more intense in regions exposed to higher (and increasing) levels of land degradation. The spread of larger land patches exposed to intrinsic degradation brings to important consequences since (1) the rising number of hotspots may increase the probability of local-scale degradation processes, and (2) the buffering effect of neighbouring (unaffected) land can be less effective on bigger hotspots, promoting a downward spiral toward desertification.

Integrating UAVs and Canopy Height Models in Vineyard Management: A Time-Space Approach

The present study illustrates an operational approach estimating individual and aggregate vineyards’ canopy volume estimation through three years Tree-Row-Volume (TRV) measurements and remotely sensed imagery acquired with unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) Red-Green-Blue (RGB) digital camera, processed with MATLAB scripts, and validated through ArcGIS tools. The TRV methodology was applied by sampling a different number of rows and plants (per row) each year with the aim of evaluating reliability and accuracy of this technique compared with a remote approach. The empirical results indicate that the estimated tree-row-volumes derived from a UAV Canopy Height Model (CHM) are up to 50% different from those measured on the field using the routinary technique of TRV in 2019. The difference is even much higher in the two 2016 dates. These empirical findings outline the importance of data integration among techniques that mix proximal and remote sensing in routine vineyards’ agronomic practices, helping to reduce management costs and increase the environmental sustainability of traditional cultivation systems.

Urbanization and Long-Term Forest Dynamics in a Metropolitan Region of Southern Europe (1936–2018)

Although peri-urban landscapes in Southern Europe still preserve a relatively high level of biodiversity in relict natural places, urban expansion is progressively consuming agricultural land and, in some cases, forest cover. This phenomenon has (direct and indirect) environmental implications, both positive and negative. The present study contributes to clarifying the intrinsic nexus between long-term urban expansion and forest dynamics in a representative Mediterranean city based on diachronic land-use maps. We discuss some counterintuitive results of urbanization as far as forest expansion, wildfire risk, and biodiversity conservation are concerned. Forest dynamics were investigated at two time intervals (1936–1974 and 1974–2018) representing distinctive socioeconomic contexts in the Rome metropolitan area in Central Italy. Additionally, the spatial relationship between forest cover and urban growth was evaluated using settlement density as a target variable. All over the study area, forest cover grew moderately over time (from 18.3% to 19.9% in the total landscape), and decreased along the urban gradient (i.e., with settlement density) more rapidly in 2018 than in 1936. The diversification of forest types (Shannon H index) was higher in areas with medium-density settlements, indicating a tendency towards more heterogeneous and mixed structures in rural and peri-urban woods that undergo rising human pressure. The dominance of a given forest type (Simpson’s D index) was higher at high settlement density areas. Evenness (Pielou’s J index) was the highest at low settlement density areas. The long-term assessment of land-use dynamics in metropolitan fringes enriched with a spatially explicit analysis of forest types may inform regional planning and environmental conservation, which could delineate appropriate strategies for sustainable land management in Southern European cities.

Unraveling spatial patterns of COVID-19 in Italy: Global forces and local economic drivers

This article investigates the spatial patterns of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection in Italy and its determinants from March 9 to June 15, 2020, a time interval covering the so-called first wave of COVID pandemics in Europe. The results, based on negative binomial regressions and linear spatial models, confirm the importance of multiple factors that positively correlate with the number of recorded cases. Economic forces, including urban agglomeration, industrial districts, concentration of large companies (both before and after the beginning of the 'lockdown') and a north-south gradient, are the most significant predictors of the strength of COVID-19 infection. These effects are statistically more robust in the spatial models than in the aspatial ones. We interpretate our results in the light of pitfalls related to data reliability, and we discuss policy implications and possible avenues for future research.

Unravelling the Role of Socioeconomic Forces in the Early Stage of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Global Analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly evolved into an acute health crisis with extensive socioeconomic and demographic consequences. The severity of the COVID-19 pandemic requires a refined (and more comprehensive) understanding of virus dissemination over space, transmission mechanisms, clinical features, and risk factors. In line with this assumption, the present study illustrates a comparative, empirical analysis of the role of socioeconomic and demographic dimensions in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic grounded on a large set of indicators comparing the background context across a global sample of countries. Results indicate that-in addition to epidemiological factors-basic socioeconomic forces significantly shaped contagions as well as hospitalization and death rates across countries. As a response to the global crisis driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, all-embracing access to healthcare services should be strengthened along with the development of sustainable health systems supported by appropriate resources and skills. The empirical findings of this study have direct implications for the coordination of on-going, global efforts aimed at containing COVID-19 (and other, future) pandemics.

Beyond the Transition: Long-Term Population Trends in a Disadvantaged Region of Southern Europe, 1861–2017

The long-term impact of demographic transitions on the spatial distribution of human settlements was occasionally evaluated in Europe. Assuming the distinctive role of urban–rural divides, our study investigates local-scale population trends (1861–2017) in Southern Italy, a disadvantaged region of Mediterranean Europe, as a result of long-term socioeconomic transformations. A quantitative analysis of municipal-scale population data based on descriptive and exploratory multivariate statistics, mapping, inferential approaches, and regression models identified four time intervals with distinctive demographic dynamics: (i) a spatially homogeneous population growth between 1861 and 1911, (ii) a moderate population increase rebalancing a traditional divide in coastal and internal areas (1911–1951), (iii) accelerated population growth enlarging spatial divides in urban and rural districts (1951–1981), and (iv) population stability (or slight decline) leading to heterogeneous demographic patterns since the early 1980s. The first three stages reflect a prolonged transition from high fertility and mortality to high fertility and low mortality, with accelerated population growth typical of the latest stage of the first demographic transition. Outcomes of time interval (iv) reflect the early stages of the second demographic transition, with lowest-low fertility and rising life expectancy. While the first transition reflected spatially homogeneous population trends along a considerable time spam, the second transition has been associated with heterogeneous (leapfrog) demographic patterns as a result of socially mixed (and spatially) fragmented dynamics of growth and change.

High-to-Low (Regional) Fertility Transitions in a Peripheral European Country: The Contribution of Exploratory Time Series Analysis

Diachronic variations in demographic rates have frequently reflected social transformations and a (more or less evident) impact of sequential economic downturns. By assessing changes over time in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at the regional scale in Italy, our study investigates the long-term transition (1952–2019) characteristic of Mediterranean fertility, showing a continuous decline of births since the late 1970s and marked disparities between high- and low-fertility regions along the latitude gradient. Together with a rapid decline in the country TFR, the spatiotemporal evolution of regional fertility in Italy—illustrated through an exploratory time series statistical approach—outlines the marked divide between (wealthier) Northern regions and (economically disadvantaged) Southern regions. Non-linear fertility trends and increasing spatial heterogeneity in more recent times indicate the role of individual behaviors leveraging a generalized decline in marriage and childbearing propensity. Assuming differential responses of regional fertility to changing socioeconomic contexts, these trends are more evident in Southern Italy than in Northern Italy. Reasons at the base of such fertility patterns were extensively discussed focusing—among others—on the distinctive contribution of internal and international migrations to regional fertility rates. Based on these findings, Southern Italy, an economically disadvantaged, peripheral region in Mediterranean Europe, is taken as a paradigmatic case of demographic shrinkage—whose causes and consequences can be generalized to wider contexts in (and outside) Europe.

Re-Framing the Latent Nexus between Land-Use Change, Urbanization and Demographic Transitions in Advanced Economies

The linkage between land-use change and demographic transitions in advanced countries has becoming increasingly complex because of the mutual interplay of environmental and socioeconomic spheres influencing the degree of sustainability of both regional and local developmental processes. The relationship between urbanization and economic development has been relatively well investigated by clarifying the consequent impacts on population dynamics. In the early phases of urbanization and economic development, population grew at a particularly high rate, declining (more or less rapidly) in the subsequent time interval. Improving income and education opportunities in urban settings resulted in further urbanization, leading to progressively lower fertility. At the same time, a more general view on the relationship between land-use change and demographic transition focusing on a broader spectrum of landscape processes (including farmland abandonment and forest expansion) at larger spatial scales (from regional to country and continental scale) is increasingly required. The present study provides an integrated view of the relationship between land-use change, urbanization, and demographic transitions with specific focus on Europe. Considering divergent processes of landscape transformations in a unified socioeconomic view may evidence the intimate linkage with recent population trends in both urban and rural areas.

Going toward Resilience? Town Planning, Peri-Urban Landscapes, and the Expansion of Athens, Greece

The long-term expansion and the evolution of town planning of a contemporary European metropolis (Athens, Greece) has been analysed in this study in order to evaluate how sustainable urban growth has been taken into account in sequential strategic master plans. During the last decades, the mostly unplanned urban growth and massive housing construction have favoured a slow evolution towards a less compact and mono-centric spatial asset, typical of several Mediterranean cities. Despite efforts to guide urban growth, a series of structural challenges have remained: (i) a gap between planning and implementation; (ii) a gap between spatial planning and socio-economic planning; (iii) a relevant pressure on natural environment; (iv) a lack of participatory planning. In order to face these problems, current strategies for the city of Athens try to foster city resilience providing guidelines for more sustainable management of the built and natural landscape. In particular, the Resilience Strategy for 2030 proposes a list of actions to improve the well-being of citizens and to increase sustainability at the urban and territorial levels. A major role was given to the enhancement of the environmental quality of the metropolitan area and to the involvement of inhabitants in the various phases of decision-making.

Land Degradation and Mitigation Policies in the Mediterranean Region: A Brief Commentary

Land degradation is more evident where conditions of environmental vulnerability already exist because of arid climate and unsustainable forms of land exploitation. Consequently, semi-arid and dry areas have been identified as vulnerable land, requiring attention from both science and policy perspectives. In some regions, such as the Mediterranean region, land degradation is particularly intense, although there are no extreme ecological conditions. In these contexts, a wide range of formal and informal responses is necessary to face particularly complex and spatially differentiated territorial processes. However, the fit of responses has been demonstrated to be different over time and space according to the underlying socioeconomic context and the specific ecological conditions. The present commentary discusses this sort of “entropy” in the policy response to land degradation in Southern Europe, outlining the intrinsic complexity of human–nature dynamics at the base of such processes. Reflecting the need of differentiated regional strategies and more specific national measures to combat desertification, three policy frameworks (agro-environmental, economic, social) with an indirect impact on fighting land degradation have been considered, delineating the importance of policy assemblages. Finally, the importance of policy impact assessment methodologies was highlighted, focusing on the possible responses reinforcing a continental strategy against land degradation. By evidencing the role of participatory planning, developmental policies indirectly addressing land degradation reveal to be an important vector of more specific measures abating desertification risk, creating, in turn, a favorable context for direct interventions of mitigation or adaptation to climate change.

Demographic Resilience in Local Systems: An Empirical Approach with Census Data

This study estimates demographic resilience in local socioeconomic systems of Southern Europe using long-term population dynamics. We assume attractive places with a continuously expanding (resident) population as ‘demographically resilient’, and locations experiencing a persistent decline of population as more fragile to external shocks. Based on these premises, a comprehensive assessment of demographic resilience in more than 1000 municipalities along the urban–rural gradient in Greece, a Mediterranean country with marked regional disparities, was carried out between 1961 and 2011. Municipalities were considered representative of homogeneous local communities, especially in rural areas. The results of non-parametric correlations suggest how basic geographical gradients (coastal–inland and urban–rural) have significantly influenced the demographic resilience of Greek municipalities. These findings outline two contrasting spatial patterns that reflect (i) continuous expansion of peri-urban local communities and (ii) a particularly intense rural shrinkage, linking depopulation to land abandonment and scarce accessibility of inland districts. While long-term population growth in Greece has progressively re-shaped the intrinsic divide in urban and rural areas, the traditional gap in central and peripheral districts is still reflected in the spatial polarization between the ‘demographically resilient’, socially dynamic coastal locations and the ‘demographically fragile’ inland, economically marginal places. These results indicate the persistence of a center–periphery model characterizing long-term settlement expansion in Greece, with spatial patterns delineating ‘resilient’ and ‘fragile’ districts based essentially on infrastructures, accessibility, and amenities.

Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Spatial Interaction between Economy and Territory

A complex interplay of socio-ecological drivers of change exists at the different spatiotemporal scales affecting environmental degradation. This is a key issue worldwide and needs to be understood to develop efficient management solutions. One of the most applied theories in the regional analysis is the U-shaped relationship between environmental degradation and the level of income in a given economic system or Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Specifically, the EKC hypothesis underlines the (potentially positive) role of formal responses to environmental degradation grounded on government policies that are usually more ambitious in wealthier economic systems. However, there is a lack of knowledge on the role of space in EKC, arguing that spatial variability in the environment–income relationship may indicate additional targets for integrated socio–environmental policies. We hypothesize that a spatially differentiated response to environmental degradation could better adapt to differentiated local contexts. Therefore, to achieve this goal, we present a multi-scale investigation of degradation processes at the local level, providing a refined knowledge of the environment–economy linkages considering more traditional, cross-country and cross-region exercises. Our results demonstrated that—together with temporal, sectoral, and institutional aspects—space and, consequently, the related analysis’ spatial scales, are significant dimensions in ecological economics, whose investigation requires improvements in data collection and dedicated statistical approaches.

From Historical Narratives to Circular Economy: De-Complexifying the "Desertification" Debate

Assuming the importance of a “socioeconomic mosaic” influencing soil and land degradation at the landscape scale, spatial contexts should be considered in the analysis of desertification risk as a base for the design of appropriate counteracting strategies. A holistic approach grounded on a multi-scale qualitative and quantitative assessment is required to identify optimal development strategies regulating the socioeconomic dimensions of land degradation. In the last few decades, the operational thinking at the base of a comprehensive, holistic theory of land degradation evolved toward many different conceptual steps. Moving from empirical, qualitative and unstructured frameworks to a more structured, rational and articulated thinking, such theoretical approaches have been usually oriented toward complex and non-linear dynamics benefiting from progressive and refined approximations. Based on these premises, eleven disciplinary approaches were identified and commented extensively on in the present study, and were classified along a gradient of increasing complexity, from more qualitative and de-structured frameworks to more articulated, non-linear thinking aimed at interpreting the intrinsic fragmentation and heterogeneity of environmental and socioeconomic processes underlying land degradation. Identifying, reviewing and classifying such approaches demonstrated that the evolution of global thinking in land degradation was intimately non-linear, developing narrative and deductive approaches together with inferential, experimentally oriented visions. Focusing specifically on advanced economies in the world, our review contributes to systematize multiple—sometimes entropic—interpretations of desertification processes into a more organized framework, giving value to methodological interplays and specific interpretations of the latent processes underlying land degradation.

Rapidity of Change in Population Age Structures: A Local Approach Based on Multiway Factor Analysis

In the light of complex adaptive system thinking, population age structures in Europe have increasingly reflected the interplay between ‘fast’ and ‘slow’ socioeconomic dynamics driven by natural population growth and migration. Assuming the importance of demographic dynamics shaping regional growth in recent times, a diachronic analysis of local-scale population age structures was developed for 156 districts of Greece between 1971 and 2011. By using appropriate indicators, the analysis was aimed at demonstrating how ‘fast’ and ‘slow’ transitions contribute to socioeconomic change in both urban and rural areas. A comprehensive analysis of change in population age structures between 1971 and 2011 allows identification of latent spatial structures as a result of population re-distribution from urban cores to broader rural regions. Following residential mobility, the empirical results of this study indicate (i) a late phase of urbanization (1971–1981) with population densification and settlement compactness, (i) a rapid suburbanization (1981–1991) consolidating distinctive demographic structures in urban and rural areas, (ii) a mild counter-urbanization (1991–2001) with moderate aging of suburban populations and (iii) a latent re-urbanization (2001–2011) reducing the suburban-urban divide in population age structures. Residential mobility contributed to a more balanced age structure during suburbanization and an increased demographic divide in the subsequent urban waves. A refined analysis of long-term population dynamics in metropolitan regions reflects spatial outcomes and latent aspects of demographic transitions shedding light on the debate over the future development of urban and rural societies in advanced economies.

Assessing the Effects of Desertification Control Projects from the Farmers' Perspective: A Case Study of Yanchi County, Northern China

Desertification has inflicted severe damage on the natural environment and social economy for decades, particularly in the arid and semi-arid regions of northern China. In Yanchi County, a series of projects were implemented to combat desertification after 2000. To assess the effects of these Desertification Control Projects from the farmers’ perspective, we divided Yanchi County into two regions (the northern and southern regions) according to their different environmental conditions. We collected data including basic family information, farmers’ perceptions and attitudes, and farmers’ suggestions, in a questionnaire investigation following the Participatory Rural Appraisal approach. Data analysis using the Mann–Whitney U test and Fisher’s exact test revealed that the Desertification Control Projects were generally successful, as the local environment and farmers’ incomes were both improved. Farmers were all satisfied with the effects of the projects, but the farmers in the southern region had a higher acceptance of the projects than those in the northern region. In addition, three problems with the Desertification Control Projects were noted: the farmers had a low degree of participation in the projects, the farmer’s low incomes affected the sustainability of the projects, and the implementation of the complete grazing ban had several adverse effects. We provided suggestions for solving these problems. Our findings have important implications for assessing the effects of environmental conservation projects, especially from a participant’s perspective.

Desertification Risk and Rural Development in Southern Europe: Permanent Assessment and Implications for Sustainable Land Management and Mitigation Policies

The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification defines ‘land degradation’ as a reduction or loss of the biological and economic productivity resulting from land-use mismanagement, or a combination of processes, such as soil erosion, deterioration of soil properties, and loss of natural vegetation and biodiversity. Land degradation is hence an interactive process involving multiple factors, among which climate, land-use, economic dynamics and socio-demographic forces play a key role. Especially in the Mediterranean basin, joint biophysical and socioeconomic factors shape the intrinsic level of vulnerability of both natural and agricultural land to degradation. The interplay between biophysical and socioeconomic factors may become extremely complex over time and space, resulting in specific patterns of landscape deterioration. This paper summarizes theoretical expectations and empirical knowledge in the field of soil and landscape degradation in Mediterranean Europe, evidencing the intimate relationship between agriculture and socio-demographic factors of growth (or decline) of rural areas. Understanding spatio-temporal trends of each factor underlying land degradation and the related background context is a key tool in the assessment of the spatial distribution of vulnerable and critical land to degradation. Empirical results of a permanent monitoring of land degradation contributes to delineate more effective conservation policies through identification of target areas requiring specific actions for biodiversity and landscape protection. With increasing human pressure on rural environments, a diachronic evaluation of patterns and processes of land degradation reveals particularly appropriate in a both positive and normative perspective, prefiguring new actions for soil conservation and landscape valorization under global change.

The Latent Relationship Between Soil Vulnerability to Degradation and Land Fragmentation: A Statistical Analysis of Landscape Metrics in Italy, 1960-2010

Land degradation leads to almost unpredictable spatial outcomes and environmental dynamics demanding a more integrated monitoring approach. In this framework, we debate on (apparent and latent) connections between land fragmentation and soil degradation by identifying areas with increased levels of soil degradation that underlie distinctive spatial trends of land fragmentation. Moving from land-use maps to an empirical study of desertification, the framework proposed in this work may support environmental monitoring and inform land conservation policies. To assess land fragmentation, a quantitative approach grounded on a comprehensive analysis of landscape metrics available in FRAGSTATS package was illustrated and applied to Italy as a representative case of complex landscape dynamics in the Mediterranean basin. The Environmental Sensitive Area methodology was adopted to monitor the level of soil vulnerability to degradation. Three classes of land vulnerability-unaffected, fragile and critical-were identified and analysed using metrics to investigate possible links between soil degradation and land fragmentation. During the study period (1960-2010), Italy evolved towards a more fragmented landscape, characterised by increasingly smaller and contiguous patches, heterogeneous land-use structures and more irregular patches. We also introduced concepts focusing on syndromes of soil degradation characterised by a variety of attributes that correlate with land fragmentation. The present study makes an important contribution towards an operational system for identifying areas at risk of desertification. Analysis of land fragmentation as a proxy of soil degradation allows the characterisation of general landscape changes and identification of place-specific patterns associated with spatio-temporal dynamics leading to higher risk of desertification.

Population Age Structure, Complex Socio-Demographic Systems and Resilience Potential: A Spatio-Temporal, Evenness-Based Approach

The present study illustrates an original approach grounded on entropy theory and complex system thinking with the aim to investigate changes over time and space in population structure by age in Italy, in light of socioeconomic resilience and post-crisis recovery potential. Assuming that population structure may reflect different levels of resilience to exogenous shocks, a Pielou J evenness index was calculated on census data made available every 10 years (1861–2011) with the aim to identify compositional homogeneity (or heterogeneity) in the age structure of the Italian population. Trends over time in the Pielou J evenness index were identified using descriptive statistics, comparison with ancillary demographic indicators and multivariate exploratory techniques including principal component analysis. The empirical results allowed the identification of multiple dimensions of demographic transition in Italy, distinguishing two phases, the former encompassing a relatively long time period between 1861 and 1936, and the latter covering a shorter period between 1936 and 2011. A spatially-explicit analysis of Pielou J evenness indices applied to the population age structure of each Italian municipality at the latest survey (2017) finally provided a comprehensive overview of the demographic characteristics likely influencing the resilience potential of local districts. The empirical evidence outlined the consolidation of a coastal–inland divide as a result of the complex linkage between demographic dynamics and local background contexts.

Socioeconomic Development, Demographic Dynamics and Forest Fires in Italy, 1961–2017: A Time-Series Analysis

Empirical studies investigating long-term trends in wildfires’ frequency and severity have been relatively scarce in Europe. Number of fire events, total burnt area and average fire size were studied between 1961 and 2017 in Italy with the aim to identify homogeneous time periods with similar wildfire frequency and severity and correlate them with the background socioeconomic context. Fire attributes had a diverging behavior over time: the number of fires was the highest in the 1970s and the early 1980s; total burnt area was relatively more constant over time with a peak in the 1980s; and, finally, average fire size decreased quite homogeneously from the peak observed in the 1960s and early 1970s. The number of fires and average fire size were significantly influenced by the value of the same variable one year before. Investigating long-term historical outlines of forest fires, a mixed approach based on time-series statistical analysis, multivariate techniques and regressive models intended to define changes in fire regimes and socioeconomic development. In fact, the comparative valuation of the socioeconomic aspects and wildfire trends can reveal a key step to recognizing mitigation and preventive possibilities. Through a multivariate analysis, a substantial difference in the socioeconomic profile can emerge by decade, evidencing a (more or less) rapid socioeconomic development in relation to the evolution of forest fires in Italy.

A Long-Term Analysis of Demographic Processes, Socioeconomic ‘Modernization’ and Forest Expansion in a European Country

This article investigates long-term forest decline and expansion vis-à-vis demographic processes in Italy, evidencing changes in the underlying socioeconomic context considering the ‘modernization theory’. An exploratory data analysis of 58 indicators assessing five basic research dimensions (territory, demography, education, trade and agriculture) and evolving rapidly over the study period (1862–2009), was run to ascertain similarity patterns among indicators and to identify time intervals characterized by homogeneous conditions in different analysis’ domains. Complementing indicators of forest expansion, changes in population structure and dynamics allow an empirical investigation of temporal coherence among demographic and forest transitions in Italy. The time window encompassing the two World Wars, approximately between 1931 and 1951, was identified as a turning point in the forest-socioeconomic system, being characterized by two groups of indicators that follow diverging (linear vs. nonlinear) time trends. A secondary turning point was identified at the beginning of the 1970s. Distinct temporal trends in the studied indicators were also identified using multivariate statistics (before the 1930s, between the 1930s and the 1950s, between the 1950s and the 1970s, from the 1970s onwards) and represent conditions of dynamic equilibrium between socio-ecological contexts, highlighting latent transitions in both population and environment conditions. Our work definitely contributes to an empirical understanding of economic, political and social forces associated with forest transition and demographic transition in advanced economies.

Demographic Transitions and Socioeconomic Development in Italy, 1862–2009: A Brief Overview

The present study investigates long-term population dynamics in Italy, 1862–2009, in light of Demographic Transitions (DTs). Under the assumption that DTs are multidimensional processes of change involving several aspects, including population structure and dynamics, an exploratory analysis was carried out in this study to verify temporal coherency of 15 indicators in Italy, identifying homogeneous time periods with distinct demographic characteristics. Indicators’ trends were identified using a multivariate statistical approach. The results of this study allow empirical testing of the assumption of temporal coherence between different aspects of a long-term DT, distinguishing distinctive population dynamics and the differential impact on population structure over two centuries. After a relatively long period of demographic stability, the time window encompassing the two World Wars—approximately between 1921 and 1951—was identified as a primary turning point of population dynamics in Italy; a second turning point was estimated at the beginning of the 1970s. These time intervals may represent conditions of dynamic equilibrium between demographic and socioeconomic contexts, highlighting latent system transitions. The study concludes by outlining the importance of a more effective integration of demographic transition theories into a broader sustainability framework, and implementing a diachronic analysis of political, economic, and social forces associated with population dynamics in both advanced economies and emerging countries.

Evaluating the Contribution of Trees outside Forests and Small Open Areas to the Italian Landscape Diversification during the Last Decades

Land use by humans strongly alters the landscape mosaic, either by reducing or increasing its heterogeneity. One of the most recent and widespread land use changes in Europe has been the spontaneous reforestation of marginal agricultural lands. These primarily affected small landscape patches, such as trees outside forests (TOF) and small open areas (SOA), often represent the most diversifying features of landscape’ structures. Nevertheless, only small-scale studies can be found in the literature and thus it remains a relatively unexplored issue. Integrating inventory and cartographic approaches, this work assesses changes in abundance, coverage, and average size of small patches in Italy between 1990 and 2013. Main results showed an overall increase in number and coverage of small patches during the reference period. The average patch size remains unaltered for TOF but decreases significantly for SOA, due to trees encroachment and canopy cover increasing in forests. Our findings confirm the important changes in Mediterranean land mosaics and contribute to a better understanding of current conditions and recent trends regarding TOF and SOA. The integrated approach has proven to be helpful for the large-scale assessment of small patches dynamics, representing a viable monitoring tool to encourage the inclusion of small patches in landscape policy and planning.

Latent Drivers of Landscape Transformation in Eastern Europe: Past, Present and Future

Land-use changes in Europe have been influenced by social forces including economic, demographic, political, technological and cultural factors. Contributing to a refined conceptualization of multifaceted processes of landscape transformation in the European continent, the present study proposes an extensive review of land-use trends in Eastern Europe, focusing on past, present and future conditions that may characterize latent drivers of change. Three time periods with a specific institutional, political and socioeconomic context reflecting distinct processes of land-use change were identified including: (i) the rapid transition to a centralized political system since the early 1950s (up to the late 1980s); (ii) a progressive transition from communist regimes to parliamentary democracy in 1989–1990 (up to the early 2000s); and (iii) the subsequent accession of individual countries to the European Union (2004–2007) up to nowadays. The most recent land-use trends are increasingly influenced by European directives on the environment, while national policies continue to shape economic development in member states.

Sustainable Land Management, Adaptive Silviculture, and New Forest Challenges: Evidence from a Latitudinal Gradient in Italy

Aimed at reducing structural homogeneity and symmetrical competition in even-aged forest stands and enhancing stand structure diversity, the present study contributes to the design and implementation of adaptive silvicultural practices with two objectives: (1) preserving high wood production rates under changing environmental conditions and (2) ensuring key ecological services including carbon sequestration and forest health and vitality over extended stand life-spans. Based on a quantitative analysis of selected stand structure indicators, the experimental design was aimed at comparing customary practices of thinning from below over the full standing crop and innovative practices of crown thinning or selective thinning releasing a pre-fixed number of best phenotypes and removing direct crown competitors. Experimental trials were established at four beech forests along a latitudinal gradient in Italy: Cansiglio, Veneto; Vallombrosa, Tuscany; Chiarano, Abruzzo; and Marchesale, Calabria). Empirical results indicate a higher harvesting rate is associated with innovative practices compared with traditional thinning. A multivariate discriminant analysis outlined significant differences in post-treatment stand structure, highlighting the differential role of structural and functional variables across the study sites. These findings clarify the impact of former forest structure in shaping post-treatment stand attributes. Monitoring standing crop variables before and after thinning provides a basic understanding to verify intensity and direction of the applied manipulation, the progress toward the economic and ecological goals, as well as possible failures or need for adjustments within a comprehensive strategy of adaptive forest management.

Resilient landscapes in Mediterranean urban areas: Understanding factors influencing forest trends

Urban and peri-urban forests are recognized as basic elements for Nature-Based Solutions (NBS), as they preserve and may increase environmental quality in urbanized contexts. For this reason, the amount of forest land per inhabitant is a pivotal efficiency indicator to be considered in the sustainable governance, land management, planning and design of metropolitan areas. The present study illustrates a multivariate analysis of per-capita forest area (PFA) in mainland Attica, the urban region surrounding Athens, Greece. Attica is considered a typical case of Mediterranean urbanization where planning has not regulated urban expansion and successive waves of spontaneous growth have occurred over time. In such a context, an analysis of factors that can affect landscape changes in terms of PFA may inform effective strategies for the sustainable management of socio-ecological local systems in light of the NBS perspective. A total of 26 indicators were collected per decade at the municipal scale in the study area with the aim to identify the factors most closely associated to the amount of PFA. Indicators of urban morphology and functions have been considered together with environmental and topographical variables. In Attica, PFA showed a progressive decrease between 1960 and 2010. In particular, PFA progressively declined (1980, 1990) along fringe areas surrounding Athens and in peri-urban districts experiencing dispersed expansion of residential settlements. Distance from core cities and from the seacoast, typical urban functions (e.g., multiple use of buildings and per capita built-up area) and percentage of agricultural land-use in each municipality are the variables most associated with high PFA. In recent years, some municipalities have shown an expansion of forest cover, mainly due to land abandonment and forest recolonization. Findings from this case study have allowed us to identify priorities for NBS at metropolitan level aimed at promoting more sustainable urbanization. Distinctively, proposed NBS basically focus on (i) the effective protection of crop mosaics with relict woodlots; (ii) the improvement of functionality, quality and accessibility of new forests; and (iii) the establishment of new forests in rural municipalities.