Cisnetto V, Barlow J. The development of complex and controversial innovations. Genetically modified mosquitoes for malaria eradication.
RESEARCH POLICY 2020;
49:103917. [PMID:
32255861 PMCID:
PMC7104890 DOI:
10.1016/j.respol.2019.103917]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Abstract
Using the example of mosquitoes that are genetically modified for malaria eradication through gene drive methods, a scientifically complex ‘living technology’, we show how complexity, uncertainty and risk can propel NPD processes towards a linear sequence of stages.
Although the need to control risks associated with gene drive technology imposes linearity to the NPD process, there are possibilities for deviation from a structured sequence of stages. This is due to the effects of feedback loops in the wider system of evidence creation and learning at the population and governance levels, which cumulatively impact on acceptance of the innovation.
The NPD and adoption processes involved in the use of gene drive technology are closely intertwined, and the endpoint for R&D and beginning of ‘mainstream’ adoption and diffusion are unclear.
When there is significant uncertainty in an innovation project, research literature suggests that strictly sequencing actions and stages may not be an appropriate mode of project management. We use a longitudinal process approach and qualitative system dynamics modelling to study the development of genetically modified (GM) mosquitoes for malaria eradication in an African country. Our data were collected in real time, from early scientific research to deployment of the first prototype mosquitoes in the field. The 'gene drive' technology for modifying the mosquitoes is highly complex and controversial due to risks associated with its characteristics as a living, self-replicating technology. We show that in this case the innovation journey is linear and highly structured, but also embedded within a wider system of adoption that displays emergent behaviour. Although the need to control risks associated with the technology imposes a linearity to the NPD process, there are possibilities for deviation from a more structured sequence of stages. This arises from the effects of feedback loops in the wider system of evidence creation and learning at the population and governance levels, which cumulatively impact on acceptance of the innovation. The NPD and adoption processes are therefore closely intertwined, meaning that the endpoint for R&D and beginning of 'mainstream' adoption and diffusion are unclear. A key challenge for those responsible for NPD and its regulation is to plan for the adoption of the technology while simultaneously conducting its scientific and technical development.
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