Sustainability for Shrinking Cities

Perspectives of Post-Industrial Towns and Landscape in Eastern Slovakia—Case Study Strážske

This study examines the impact of socialist industrialisation from the 1950s to 1989 and deindustrialisation from 1989 on urban development and landscape transformation in Strážske—the former centre of the chemical industry in Eastern Slovakia. We focus on contemporary challenges: the emergence of brownfields, environmental burdens, and urban shrinkage, to propose strategies for creating a sustainable and resilient shrinking town of Strážske. We have divided the methods and results into two sections: the first is the mapping of urban and landscape development, brownfields, and environmental burdens, and the second is the proposal of perspective strategies for brownfield redevelopment. The study combines morphological research, field survey, data analysis and literature review. The results confirmed that socialist industrialisation was a determining factor in urban growth and landscape transformation, as well as the negative impact of chemical production on the environment and the emergence of brownfields. In the second stage of results, four proposed scenarios are portraying the possible strategies for brownfield redevelopment regarding sustainability and resilience. The results can serve as a non-binding spatial planning document for the local government of Strážske. However, especially for shrinking cities, it is necessary to create a systematic legislative and financial support system from the state, as well as a change in spatial planning legislative and methodology.

Resilience and Urban Regeneration Policies. Lessons from Community-Led Initiatives. The Case Study of CanFugarolas in Mataro (Barcelona)

This paper addresses socio-ecological, community-led resilience as the ability of the urban system to progress and adapt. This is based on the socio-cultural, self-organized case study of CanFugarolas in Mataró (Barcelona), for the recovery of a derelict industrial building and given the lack of attention to resilience emerging from grassroots. Facing rigidities (stagnation) observed under the provisions of urban regeneration policies (regulatory realm), evidenced in the proliferation of urban voids (infrastructural arena), the social subsystem stands as the enabler of urban progression. Under the heuristics of the Adaptive Cycle and Panarchy, the study embraces Fath’s model to analyze the transition along, and the interactions between, the adaptive cycles at each urban subsystem. The mixed method approach reveals the ability of the community to navigate all stages and overcome successive ailments, despite seemingly insurmountable obstacles (traps) at the physical support (built stock) and the regulatory arena (urban planning). Further, cross-scale, social-centered interactions (panarchy) are also traced, becoming the “sink” and the “trigger” of the urban dynamics. The community, in the form of an actor-network, becomes the catalyst (through Remember/Revolt) of urban resilience at the city scale. At a managerial level, this evidences its temporal and spatial complementarity to top-down urban regeneration policies.

Does One Decade of Urban Policy for the Shrinking City Make Visible Progress in Urban Re-Urbanization? A Case Study of Bytom, Poland

Planning and managing the declining fortunes of shrinking cities are essential in shaping urban policy in post-industrial urban societies, especially in Central and Eastern European states. Many studies emphasize city management and redevelopment as important policy constituencies for driving revitalization. However, there is still a lack of knowledge about policy-making and the underlying political and socio-economic disagreements that impact successful measures to reverse urbanization and regenerate post-industrial cities. This paper provides a case of urban policy-making for Bytom—a severely shrinking city in southern Poland. This article aims to clarify the mismatch between the city’s policy and the socio-economic situation Bytom after 2010. This discrepancy could have weakened effective policy to address shrinkage and revitalization. Statistical and cartographic methods (choropleth maps) helped analyze the socio-economic changes in Bytom and its shrinking. The issues related to the city’s policy were based primarily on free-form interviews and the analysis of municipal and regional documents concerning Bytom. The conducted research shows the need for concerted and coordinated policy direction that considers the real possibilities of implementing pro-development projects. Such expectations also result from the opinions of local communities. Finding a compromise between the idea of active support for projects implemented in a shrinking city and an appropriate urban policy is expected. Such an approach also requires further strengthening of social and economic participation in local and regional governance.

Socio-Spatial Aspects of Shrinking Municipalities: A Case Study of the Post-Communist Region of North-East Poland

Urban shrinkage has become a common feature for a growing number of European cities and urban regions. Cities in Europe have lost populations during the previous few decades, many of them in the post-communist countries. A similar phenomenon has been observed in smaller units: municipalities and villages. Shrinking towns/municipalities/villages grapple with insufficiently used housing infrastructure, a decrease in labor force, investment and in the number of jobs. This analysis examines the socio-spatial factors present in municipalities in the north-east of Poland, which are expected to experience the greatest population decrease by 2030. The study focused mainly on determinants with the greatest impact on the good life standards. It also sought to answer why the population growth forecasts for these units are so unpromising. The findings have shown that the majority of determinants adopted in the conceptual model describing the good life standards are below the reference values. The applied taxonomic measure of good life standards (TMGL) method allowed for identifying five municipality clusters representing “different speeds” at which these forecasts are fulfilled. Two clusters have dominant determinants in five criteria and three clusters, in two criteria adopted in the conceptual model. The findings indicate that approx. 35% of the municipalities under analysis have a chance for stabilization of the population size, provided local stakeholders take some targeted actions.

Urban Public Service Analysis by GIS-MCDA for Sustainable Redevelopment: A Case Study of a Megacity in Korea

With the rapid industrialization and urbanization, suburban areas have been developed to accommodate the sudden demand of the population. However, recent problems such as low fertility and aging induces urban shrinkage by reducing the urban population and the economy in old areas around the suburbs. As urban shrinkage causes inequality among residents in terms of the opportunities to access public services, the enhancement of the accessibility of public services is crucial to achieve inclusive growth. This paper proposes a framework for supplying public services based on the transit-oriented development (TOD) concept with geographic information system (GIS) analysis technique. A total of 24 indices, 4 criteria for 6 public services, are measured and weighted by the entropy method to find vulnerable residential buildings with a poor environment in Jung-nang district, Seoul. With a spatial analysis based on this weight value of residential buildings and the TOD concept, old commercial buildings are selected as candidate buildings for public services. According to the derived results, one candidate building as a public service can improve the environment of 3% to 8% of vulnerable residential buildings. The proposed decision-making methods can provide a valuable reference for selecting the location of public services by computational analysis with GIS.

Iterative scenarios for social-ecological systems

Managing social-ecological systems toward desirable regimes requires learning about the system being managed while preparing for many possible futures. Adaptive management (AM) and scenario planning (SP) are two systems management approaches that separately use learning to reduce uncertainties and employ planning to manage irreducible uncertainties, respectively. However, each of these approaches have limitations that confound management of social-ecological systems. Here, we introduce iterative scenarios (IS), a systems management approach that is a hybrid of the scopes and relationships to uncertainty and controllability of AM and SP that combines the "iterativeness" of AM and futures planning of SP. Iterative scenarios is appropriate for situations with high uncertainty about whether a management action will lead to intended outcomes, the desired benefits are numerous and cross-scale, and it is difficult to account for the social implications around the natural resource management options. The value of iterative scenarios is demonstrated by applying the approach to green infrastructure futures for a neighborhood in the city of Cleveland, Ohio, U.S., that had experienced long-term, systemic disinvestment. The Cleveland green infrastructure project was particularly well suited to the IS approach given that learning about environmental factors was necessary and achievable, but what would be socially desirable and possible was unknown. However, iterative scenarios is appropriate for many social-ecological systems where uncertainty is high as IS accommodates real-world complexity faced by management.

How Does the Location of Urban Facilities Affect the Forecasted Population Change in the Osaka Metropolitan Fringe Area?

This study aims to clarify the statistical causal relationship between the locations of urban facilities and forecasted population changes according to types of residential clusters in the Osaka Metropolitan Fringe areas. This paper’s background is the location optimization plan policy formulated by the Japanese MLIT (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism) in 2015. The methods combined urban ecological analysis, cohort analysis, and Bayesian network analysis. Using the Bayesian network analysis, the causal relationship between the forecasted population change ratio and the urban facility location was analyzed. The results suggest the location of urban facilities for each residential cluster that will prevent a rapid population decline in the future. Specifically, in the sprawl cluster, this study found that residential areas closer to medical facilities will sustain the future population, while in the old new-town cluster, this study found that residential areas closer to train stations will best sustain the future population. However, in the public housing cluster, residential areas more distant from regional resources will best sustain the future population. Therefore, it is worth considering different urban designs in the old new-town and public housing clusters, rather than the location optimization plan policy.

Friendly Communities and Outdoor Spaces in Contexts of Urban Population Decline

Urban population decline has been extensively described as a triggering factor for community segregation and fragmentation, as well as for land use vacancy and house/flat vacancies, resulting in rising interest in strategies of green infrastructure expansion aimed at citizens’ wellbeing and urban ecosystems. However, city-scaled green infrastructures can be formed by different typologies of outdoor spaces, providing diverse social affordances that can impact community cohesion and resilience differently. This study focuses on the relationship between preferences for particular outdoor space typologies and for community friendliness, under contexts of urban population decline as a migratory process. In the context of Lisbon, a European capital-city experiencing migration and immigration but also urban population shrinkage in some areas of its metropolitan region, the study used conjoint analysis to test participants’ preference for different attributes of their urban environment. The results showed a significant positive correlation, in the sample living in depopulating neighbourhoods, between preferences for friendlier communities and for outdoor spaces of an enclosed and protected character (r = 0.34), compared with no significant correlation in the studied non-depopulating neighbourhoods. These results do not deny the importance of public parks of wide dimensions as a strategy for shrinking cities’ green infrastructures but suggest that urban citizens living in depopulating neighbourhoods have a higher awareness of the importance of small-scale, enclosed outdoor/green spaces to give a stronger sense of social connectedness. This study contributes to the general literature on urban shrinkage by showing that these sensitive conditions can potentially change behaviour and use of public spaces in urban contexts.

Shrinking Historic Neighborhoods and Authenticity Dilution: An Unspoken Challenge of Historic Chinatowns in the United States through the Case of San Francisco

Despite a rising amount of urban shrinkage research, little attention is paid to the shrinking historic ethnic neighborhoods, where authenticity plays a vital role in maintaining local heritage, identity, and livability. This article concerns the historic Chinatowns in the United States that are largely confronting the evident decline of the ethnic Chinese population and authenticity dilution. Taking San Francisco’s historic Chinatown as a case study, the research portrays an alternative face of urban shrinkage at the neighborhood level with a specific integration of authenticity discourse. Through combining quantitative statistical analysis and qualitative research on the basis of interviews, the paper presents how neighborhood shrinkage and authenticity dilution are perceived and characterized and further reveals the interactive process of neighborhood shrinkage and authenticity dilution, and their impacts on social sustainability. The study also demonstrates the notable necessity and possibility to incorporate the issue of authenticity into the discourse of urban shrinkage, which enables a deepened understanding of the cumulative effects of urban shrinkage on local lives and social sustainability, and establishing a more comprehensive and targeted framework of strategies, particularly for those carrying significant social, cultural, and emotional meaning.

Spatiotemporal Analysis and Control of Landscape Eco-Security at the Urban Fringe in Shrinking Resource Cities: A Case Study in Daqing, China

As the main bearing area of the ecological crisis in resource-rich cities, it is essential for the urban fringe to enhance regional ecological security during a city's transformation. This paper takes Daqing City, the largest oilfield in China's cold land, as an example. Based on remote sensing image data from 1980 to 2017, we use the DPSIR (Driving forces, Pressure, State, Impact, Response) framework and spatial auto-correlation analysis methods to assess and analyze the landscape eco-security change of the study area. From the perspective of time-space, the study area is partitioned, and control strategies are proposed. The results demonstrate that: (1) The landscape eco-security changes are mainly affected by oilfield exploitation and ecological protection policies; the index declined in 1980-2000 and increased in 2000-2017. (2) The landscape eco-security index has obvious spatial clustering characteristics, and the oil field is the main area of warning. (3) The study area determined the protection area of 1692.07 km², the risk restoration area of 979.64 km², and proposed partition control strategies. The results are expected to provide new decision-making ideas in order to develop land use management and ecological plans for the management of Daqing and other resource shrinking cities.

Shrinking Suburbs: Analyzing the Decline of American Suburban Spaces

Recent popular and scholarly work has drawn attention to the issue of shrinking cities. In particular, a growing body of literature has focused on the impacts of population loss on European cities, and more recently, the deindustrialized areas of the United States. Fewer scholars have examined the phenomenon of shrinkage in the suburban context. This paper explores the evolution of shrinking suburbs in the United States from 1980 to 2010. Three research questions motivate this study: (1) What is the population change in suburban neighborhoods and places from 1980 to 2010? (2) Where are shrinking suburbs located? (3) What are the trajectories of change of shrinking suburbs? A definition of shrinking suburbs using spatial and temporal criteria is operationalized. Using census tract-level data with normalized boundaries from the Neighborhood Change Database, numerous socioeconomic variables were extracted for the 30-year study period. In total, the results demonstrate that approximately one-quarter of all suburbs were shrinking. The characteristics of shrinking suburbs are identified and a typology of seven trajectories of suburban decline is developed. The conclusion reflects on the implications of shrinking suburbs for sustainable development.

Urban Shrinkage and Sustainability: Assessing the Nexus between Population Density, Urban Structures and Urban Sustainability

Urban shrinkage has become a common pathway (not only) in post-socialist cities, which represents new challenges for traditionally growth-oriented spatial planning. Though in the post-socialist area, the situation is even worse due to prevailing weak planning culture and resulting uncoordinated development. The case of the city of Ostrava illustrates how the problem of (in)efficient infrastructure operation, and maintenance, in already fragmented urban structure is exacerbated by the growing size of urban area (through low-intensity land-use) in combination with declining size of population (due to high rate of outmigration). Shrinkage, however, is, on the intra-urban level, spatially differentiated. Population, paradoxically, most intensively declines in the least financially demanding land-uses and grows in the most expensive land-uses for public administration. As population and urban structure development prove to have strong inertia, this land-use development constitutes a great challenge for a city’s future sustainability. The main objective of the paper is to explore the nexus between change in population density patterns in relation to urban shrinkage, and sustainability of public finance.

Borough Development Dependent on Agricultural, Tourism, and Economy Levels

The study addresses the problem of functional transformations covering rural and urban-rural municipalities in Lower Silesia voivodship, according to the adopted functional typology of municipalities. The division of municipalities into functional types is a continuation of the research conducted in 1996, 2005, and 2010. The year 2016 was adopted as the base year for comparison, using the same criteria for their classification: the level of industrialization, the structure of the economy, and the level of tourist infrastructure development. The statistical analysis carried out within the framework of the study covered changes in the municipalities’ proportions of particular functional types between 1996, 2005, and 2016 and also the impact assessment of the quality of agricultural area and unemployment rate in relation to the determined municipality type. In order to obtain the research results, the statistical analysis using Cochran’s Q test was, among others, performed to determine changes in the proportions of municipalities and also one-way analysis of variance between groups was conducted to establish the indicated correlations. In the case of obtaining a statistically significant result, paired comparisons were carried out (between the types of municipalities) using Hommel’s procedure. The conducted analysis confirmed the adopted research theses, i.e., in the studied period from 1996 to 2016, the majority of the analyzed regions lost their agricultural function in favor of the industrial function.

Evolving Obligatory Passage Points to Sustain Service Systems: The Case of Traditional Market Revitalization in Hsinchu City, Taiwan

“City” could be viewed as an integration of various service systems with relocated social, economic, and environmental capitals under urbanization. It was evidential in Hsinchu City, Taiwan, where once the biggest market, Dongmen Market (DMM), declined because the replacement of urban consumption patterns along with the setup of high tech science park bringing new residences. This research took the perspectives of Service-Dominant Logic (S-DL) and Actor Network Theory (ANT) to study the development of new service systems and how they were sustained through the revitalization by a two-year ethnographic study. We explain how stakeholders propose and receive value within and among service systems. A unique actor called obligatory passage point (OPP) was formed in the translation phases of actor networks, delivering the co-created value by stakeholders with different interests. Four identified OPPs indicated that their “evolution process” drove the revitalization of DMM toward a sustainable service system. A framework of open innovation practice was formulated as iterative cycles with four phases: (1) actor interacting; (2) value co-creating; (3) relationship modeling; and (4) OPP transforming, which operationalized the OPP evolution from its destruction to construction. The application of the OPP evolution process to revitalizing urban service systems contributes to practitioners in social innovation to sustain urban service systems in addition to the theoretical formation of OPP evolution.

Agroecology for the Shrinking City

Many cities are experiencing long-term declines in population and economic activity. As a result, frameworks for urban sustainability need to address the unique challenges and opportunities of such shrinking cities. Shrinking, particularly in the U.S., has led to extensive vacant land. The abundance of vacant land reflects a loss of traditional urban amenities, economic opportunity, neighbors, businesses, and even basic city services and often occurs in neighborhoods with socially and economically vulnerable or underserved populations. However, vacant land also provides opportunities, including the space to invest in green infrastructure that can provide ecosystem services and support urban sustainability. Achieving desirable amenities that provide ecosystem services from vacant land is the central tenet of a recent urban sustainability framework termed ecology for the shrinking city. An agroecological approach could operationalize ecology for the shrinking city to both manage vacancy and address ecosystem service goals. Developing an agroecology in shrinking cities not only secures provisioning services that use an active and participatory approach of vacant land management but also transforms and enhances regulating and supporting services. The human and cultural dimensions of agroecology create the potential for social-ecological innovations that can support sustainable transformations in shrinking cities. Overall, the strength of agroecological principles guiding a green infrastructure strategy stems from its explicit focus on how individuals and communities can shape their environment at multiple scales to produce outcomes that reflect their social and cultural context. Specifically, the shaping of the environment provides a pathway for communities to build agency and manage for resilience in urban social-ecological systems. Agroecology for the shrinking city can support desirable transformations, but to be meaningful, we recognize that it must be part of a greater strategy that addresses larger systemic issues facing shrinking cities and their residents.

Situating Green Infrastructure in Context: A Framework for Adaptive Socio-Hydrology in Cities

Management of urban hydrologic processes using green infrastructure (GI) has largely focused on stormwater management. Thus, design and implementation of GI usually rely on physical site characteristics and local rainfall patterns, and do not typically account for human or social dimensions. This traditional approach leads to highly centralized stormwater management in a disconnected urban landscape, and can deemphasize additional benefits that GI offers, such as increased property value, greenspace aesthetics, heat island amelioration, carbon sequestration, and habitat for biodiversity. We propose a Framework for Adaptive Socio-Hydrology (FrASH) in which GI planning and implementation moves from a purely hydrology-driven perspective to an integrated socio-hydrological approach. This allows for an iterative, multifaceted decision-making process that would enable a network of stakeholders to collaboratively set a dynamic, context-guided project plan for the installation of GI, rather than a 'one-size-fits-all' installation. We explain how different sectors (e.g., governance, non-governmental organizations, academia, and industry) can create a connected network of organizations that work towards a common goal. Through a graphical Chambered Nautilus model, FrASH is experimentally applied to contrasting GI case studies and shows that this multi-stakeholder, connected, de-centralized network with a co-evolving decision-making project plan results in enhanced multi-functionality, potentially allowing for the management of resilience in urban systems at multiple scales.