Are the Changes in China’s Grain Production Sustainable: Extensive and Intensive Development by the LMDI Approach

Vegetation Dynamics and Food Security against the Background of Ecological Restoration in Hubei Province, China

A series of ecological restoration projects have been proposed to solve ecological problems resulting from human activities. The project of returning farmlands to forests, initiated in 1999, was the most widely implemented ecological restoration project in China. Large amounts of cropland with steep slopes have been converted to forests or grasslands to promote vegetation restoration, reduce soil erosion, and control nonpoint source pollution. Therefore, identifying the dynamics of vegetation and food security is crucial for further decision making. Based on the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and grain yield data, this study explored the vegetation dynamics and food security of Hubei Province against the background of ecological restoration. The results show that, on a whole, the NDVI significantly increased from 2000 to 2018. The spatial agglomeration of the NDVI decreased between 2000 and 2008 and then increased from 2009 onwards. High-high NDVI agglomerations were more concentrated in mountainous areas. Food security was not threatened, and the grain yield in Hubei Province and most of the cities exhibited significant upward trends, as a whole. The change trend of the grain yield was not stable during the period from 2000 to 2018. The grain yield for Hubei Province and almost all of the cities decreased during the first 5 to 11 years, probably due to the sharp decrease in the sloping cropland areas against the background of ecological restoration. Grain yield was more sensitive and had a longer downward trend in regions with steeper slopes. Increasing trends in grain yield were detected during the last 6 to 10 years for most of the cities, and this can mainly be attributed to the newly added croplands that were created from land with other kinds of land uses, the increase in grain productivity, and strict cropland protection policies. The project of returning farmlands to forests is suggested as a long-term policy from the perspective of ecological restoration, and effective measures should also be continuously taken to maintain grain production and food security.

Resilience, vulnerability and adaptability: A qualitative study of COVID-19 lockdown experiences in two Henan villages, China

BACKGROUND

The Chinese government's early handling of COVID-19 has been perceived as aggressive and oppressive. Many of the most radical measures were adopted in Henan province, immediately north of Hubei, the pandemic's epicentre in China. However, little is known about how rural residents-a group systematically disadvantaged in Chinese society-responded to authorities' draconian restrictions.

METHODS

To understand the lockdown measures and rural community responses at the grassroots level, face-to-face interviewers were conducted with both village cadres and villagers from two Henan villages in May and June 2020. The interviews were analysed with qualitative content analysis methods, with the coding process guided by the concepts of resilience, vulnerability and adaptability from the literature on disaster risk reduction.

RESULTS

We found that the lockdown measures were indeed radical and disproportionate relative to the level of risk presented; however, they were largely accepted by villagers. This contradiction can be explained by two key contributing factors: (i) shared interests of individual villagers and the converged goal of government and civil society, and (ii) tacit flexibility in COVID-19 adaption strategies to tackle conflict resulting from goal diversion between citizens and local governments.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the nuances of ground-level politics. Despite their 'radical' nature, the lockdown measures were not implemented as simple top-down coercion. Instead, they involved, importantly, the bottom-up, localised response of villagers, and they were negotiated and adapted according to local circumstances.

Will China's fertilizer use continue to decline? Evidence from LMDI analysis based on crops, regions and fertilizer types

China implemented the Action Plan for the Zero Increase of Fertilizer Use in 2015, which led to a decrease in fertilizer use. However, Will fertilizer use continue to reduce? With data obtained from 2006 to 2017, the paper used the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method to analyze the scale effect, intensity effect and structural effect of fertilizer use change in China from three aspects: crops, regions and fertilizer types. Our finding suggests that (1) The intensity effect was the most critical factor affecting the decline in fertilizer use in China. (2) The sowing scale and fertilization intensity of grain, vegetables and fruits had the most significant driving effect on fertilizer reduction. (3) The three effects of each region were different in space, and the eastern region contributed most to the fertilizer decrement. (4) Nitrogen fertilizer and compound fertilizer had the most considerable influence on fertilizer reduction, especially in the sowing scale and fertilization intensity since 2009. The government should establish a fertilizer reduction management system, which includes scale control, intensity reduction, structural adjustment and other measures.

Urban sprawl decreases the value of ecosystem services and intensifies the supply scarcity of ecosystem services in China

Land use and land cover changes, particularly land take by urbanization, can degrade ecosystems and their capacity to provide humans with numerous benefits, namely, ecosystem services (ES). Many studies on the relationship between urbanization and the supply and demand of ES have been conducted. However, studies on the process and trend of the conflict between ES supply and demand, as well as the spatial differences, are lacking. Developing countries around the world are experiencing rapid urbanization. The aim of this study was to summarize the relationship between urbanization and the supply and demand of ES in China. China has experienced rapid urbanization since the reform and opening up, and the urban population reached 56.10% in 2015. Urban sprawl was twice that of population expansion, and led to a loss in value of ES. We calculated the loss in value of the five ES (food production, water conservation, climate regulation, habitat support and cultural service) due to the increase in construction area by means of spatial analysis. The total loss was US $110.95 billion in China from 1985 to 2015. This result indicated that the increases in construction land area had a negative impact on ES. At the same time, there was a conflict between the scarcity index of ES and their loss in value. The leading cause of this conflict was that economic development was highly dependent on the area of urban construction land. The results suggested that we should adopt "intensive" and "compact" strategic development models, quantify the value of ES, focus on the conflict between the loss in value and ES supply, and try our best to reduce the decline in ES in the future.