Persistence Analysis and Prediction of Low-Visibility Events at Valladolid Airport, Spain

Development of Two-Dimensional Visibility Estimation Model Using Machine Learning: Preliminary Results for South Korea

A two-dimensional visibility estimation model was developed, based on random forest (RF), a machine learning-based technique. A geostatistical method was introduced into the visibility estimation model for the first time to interpolate point measurement data to gridded data spatially with a pixel size of 10 km. The RF-based model was trained using gridded visibility data, as well as meteorological and air pollution input variable data, for each location in South Korea, which were characterized by complex geographical features and high air pollution levels. Generally, relative humidity was the most important input variable for the visibility estimation (average mean decrease accuracy: 35%). However, PM2.5 tended to be the most crucial variable in polluted regions. The spatial interpolation was found to result in an additional visibility estimation error of 500 m in locations where no adjacent visibility observations within 0.2° were available. The performance of the proposed model was preliminarily assessed. Generally, the best detection performance was achieved in good visibility conditions (visibility range: 10 to 20 km). This study is the first to demonstrate a visibility estimation model based on a geostatistical method and machine learning, which can provide visibility information in locations for which no observations exist.

Visibility Prediction Based on Machine Learning Algorithms

In this study, ground observation data were selected from January 2016 to January 2020. First, six machine learning methods were used to predict visibility. We verified the accuracy of the method with and without principal components analysis (PCA) by combining actual examples with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) data and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NECP) data. The results show that PCA can improve visibility prediction. Neural networks have high accuracy in machine learning algorithms. The initial visibility data plays an important role in the visibility forecast and can effectively improve forecast accuracy.

Forecast of Hourly Airport Visibility Based on Artificial Intelligence Methods

Based on the hourly visibility data, visibility and its changes during 2010–2020 at monthly and annual time scales over 47 international airports in China are investigated, and nine artificial-intelligence-based hourly visibility prediction models are trained (hourly data in 2018–2019) and tested (hourly data in 2020) at these airports. The analyses show that the visibility of airports in eastern and central China is at a poor level all year round, and LXA (in Lhasa) has good visibility all year round. Airports in south and the northwest China have better visibility from May to October and poorer visibility from November to April. In all months, the increasing visibility mainly occurs in the central, northeast and coastal areas of China, while decreasing visibility mainly appears in the western and northern parts of China. In spring, summer and autumn, the changes difference between east and west is particularly obvious. This East–West distribution of trends is obviously different from the North–South distribution shown by the mean. For all airports, good visibility mainly occurs from 14:00–18:00 p.m. Beijing Time, while poor visibility mainly concentrates from 22:00 p.m. to 12:00 p.m. the next day, especially between 3:00–9:00 a.m. Our proposed artificial intelligence algorithm models can be reasonably used in airport visibility prediction. In particular, most algorithm models have the best results in the visibility prediction over HFE (in Hefei) and SJW (in Shijiazhuang). On the contrary, the worst forecast results appear at LXA and LHW (in Lanzhou) airports. The prediction results of airport visibility in the cold season (October–December) are better than those in the warm season (May–September). Among the algorithm models, the prediction performance of the RF-based model is the best.

Statistical Analysis and Machine Learning Prediction of Fog-Caused Low-Visibility Events at A-8 Motor-Road in Spain

This work presents a full statistical analysis and accurate prediction of low-visibility events due to fog, at the A-8 motor-road in Mondoñedo (Galicia, Spain). The present analysis covers two years of study, considering visibility time series and exogenous variables collected in the zone affected the most by extreme low-visibility events. This paper has then a two-fold objective: first, we carry out a statistical analysis for estimating the fittest probability distributions to the fog event duration, using the Maximum Likelihood method and an alternative method known as the L-moments method. This statistical study allows association of the low-visibility depth with the event duration, showing a clear relationship, which can be modeled with distributions for extremes such as Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Pareto distributions. Second, we apply a neural network approach, trained by means of the ELM (Extreme Learning Machine) algorithm, to predict the occurrence of low-visibility events due to fog, from atmospheric predictive variables. This study provides a full characterization of fog events at this motor-road, in which orographic fog is predominant, causing important traffic problems during all year. We also show how the ELM approach is able to obtain highly accurate low-visibility events predictions, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.8, within a half-hour time horizon, enough to initialize some protocols aiming at reducing the impact of these extreme events in the traffic of the A-8 motor road.

Visibility Prediction over South Korea Based on Random Forest

In this study, the visibility of South Korea was predicted (VISRF) using a random forest (RF) model based on ground observation data from the Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) and air pollutant data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) model. Visibility was predicted and evaluated using a training set for the period 2017–2018 and a test set for 2019. VISRF results were compared and analyzed using visibility data from the ASOS (VISASOS) and the Unified Model (UM) Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) (VISLDAPS) operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Bias, root mean square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients (R) for the VISASOS and VISLDAPS datasets were 3.67 km, 6.12 km, and 0.36, respectively, compared to 0.14 km, 2.84 km, and 0.81, respectively, for the VISASOS and VISRF datasets. Based on these comparisons, the applied RF model offers significantly better predictive performance and more accurate visibility data (VISRF) than the currently available VISLDAPS outputs. This modeling approach can be implemented by authorities to accurately estimate visibility and thereby reduce accidents, risks to public health, and economic losses, as well as inform on urban development policies and environmental regulations.

Correlation between visibility and traffic safety visual distance in foggy areas during the daytime

OBJECTIVE

Traffic safety is closely related to the driver's ability to obtain visual information. Low visibility would result in traffic accidents. This study aimed to explore the difference between meteorological visibility and traffic safety visual distance in foggy areas in the daytime, and analyze the difference between dynamic visual ability and static visual ability, so as to calculate the maximum acceptable speed limit that meets the driver's safety visual distance requirement.

METHODS

Visual distances under different visibility conditions were collected for 12 passenger car drivers through static and naturalistic driving visual recognition experiments. The power function relation model between driver's static visual distance and meteorological visibility was established, and the attenuation rates of dynamic visual distance at different driving speeds were obtained.

RESULTS

Traffic safety visual distance (TSVD) gradually grows with the increase of visibility and finally tends to be stable due to the vision limitation of the human eyes under good weather conditions. The drivers' visual ability decreased while driving dynamically, and dynamic TSVD was shorter than static TSVD.

CONCLUSIONS

Traditional meteorological visibility is different from drivers' actual TSVD, but there is a correlation between them. According to the relationship between visibility and dynamic TSVD, the maximum recommended speed limit values under different visibility levels are provided. The calculation of the maximum acceptable speeds under specific visibility conditions can provide a technical basis for road construction and traffic management.