Delayed Evacuation after a Disaster Because of Irrational Prediction of the Future Cumulative Precipitation Time Series under Asymmetry of Information

This study investigated biased prediction of cumulative precipitation, using a variety of patterns of histories of cumulative precipitation, to explore how such biased prediction could delay evacuation or evacuation orders. The irrationality in predicting the future of cumulative precipitation was examined to obtain insights into the causes of delayed evacuation or evacuation orders using a simulated prediction of future cumulative precipitation based on the cumulative precipitation history. Anchoring and adjustment, or availability bias stemming from asymmetry of information, was observed in the prediction of cumulative precipitation, and found to delay evacuation or evacuation orders.

Irrationality of Attitudes toward Safety under Complexity and Uncertainty Leading to Asymmetry of Information

This study investigated how complexity and uncertainty, the probability of accidents, and the probability of financial trouble affected individuals’ recognition of validity of irrational risk-seeking decisions. As a result of conducting a multiple regression analysis on the validation score for irrational risk-seeking alternative obtained by a questionnaire survey, we found that the validity score for an irrational risk-seeking alternative was higher when both complexity and uncertainty were high than when both complexity and uncertainty were low, which means that high complexity and high uncertainty in the situation of decision making more readily leads to an irrational risk-seeking behavior that might trigger a major accident. Beyond complexity and uncertainty, the damage of major accident α, the decrease of the probability of major accidents and the increase of the probability of financial trouble (economic factor) were also found to promote the choice of irrational risk-seeking alternatives. Some implications for safety management under high complexity and uncertainty are discussed.