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Sa'adi Z, Alias NE, Yusop Z, Iqbal Z, Houmsi MR, Houmsi LN, Ramli MWA, Muhammad MKI. Application of relative importance metrics for CMIP6 models selection in projecting basin-scale rainfall over Johor River basin, Malaysia. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 912:169187. [PMID: 38097068 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2023] [Revised: 11/20/2023] [Accepted: 12/05/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023]
Abstract
The most recent set of General Circulation Models (GCMs) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was used in this work to analyse the spatiotemporal patterns of future rainfall distribution across the Johor River Basin (JRB) in Malaysia. A group of 23 GCMs were chosen for comparative assessment in simulating basin-scale rainfall based on daily rainfall from the historical period of the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS). The methodological novelty of this study lies in the application of relative importance metrics (RIM) to rank and select historical GCM simulations for reproducing rainfall at 109 CHIRPS grid points within the JRB. In order to choose the top GCMs, the rankings given by RIM were aggregated using the compromise programming index (CPI) and Jenks optimised classification (JOC). It was found that ACCESS-ESM1-5 and CMCC-ESM2 were ranked the highest in most of the grid. The final GCM was then bias-corrected using the linear scaling method before being ensemble based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique. The spatiotemporal assessment of the ensemble model for the different months over the near-future period 2021-2060 and far-future period 2061-2100 was compared with those under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. Heterogeneous changes in rainfall were projected across the JRB, with both increasing and decreasing trends. In the near-future and far-future scenarios, higher rainfall was projected for December, indicating an elevated risk of flooding during the end of the North East monsoon (NEM). Conversely, August showed a decreasing trend in rainfall, implying an increasing risk of severe drought. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for effective water resource management and climate change adaptation in the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zulfaqar Sa'adi
- Centre for Environmental Sustainability and Water Security (IPASA), School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Sekudai, Johor, Malaysia; Department of Water & Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
| | - Nor Eliza Alias
- Centre for Environmental Sustainability and Water Security (IPASA), School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Sekudai, Johor, Malaysia; Department of Water & Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
| | - Zulkifli Yusop
- Centre for Environmental Sustainability and Water Security (IPASA), School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Sekudai, Johor, Malaysia; Department of Water & Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
| | - Zafar Iqbal
- Department of Water & Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia; NUST Institute of Civil Engineering-SCEE, National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), H-12, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan.
| | - Mohamad Rajab Houmsi
- Center for River and Coastal Engineering (CRCE), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Sekudai, Johor, Malaysia.
| | - Lama Nasrallah Houmsi
- Finance and Banking Department, College of Economics, Aleppo University, Aleppo, Syria.
| | | | - Mohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad
- Department of Water & Environmental Engineering, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Malaysia.
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Santos F, Calle N, Bonilla S, Sarmiento F, Herrnegger M. Impacts of soil erosion and climate change on the built heritage of the Pambamarca Fortress Complex in northern Ecuador. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0281869. [PMID: 36821586 PMCID: PMC9949680 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0281869] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2022] [Accepted: 02/02/2023] [Indexed: 02/24/2023] Open
Abstract
The Pambamarca fortress complex in northern Ecuador is a cultural and built heritage with 18 prehispanic fortresses known as Pucaras. They are mostly located on the ridge of the Pambamarca volcano, which is severely affected by erosion. In this research, we implemented a multiscale methodology to identify sheet, rill and gully erosion in the context of climate change for the prehistoric sites. In a first phase, we coupled the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and four CMIP6 climate models to evaluate and prioritize which Pucaras are prone to sheet and rill erosion, after comparing historical and future climate scenarios. Then, we conducted field visits to collect geophotos and soil samples for validation purposes, as well as drone flight campaigns to derive high resolution digital elevation models and identify gully erosion with the stream power index. Our erosion maps achieved an overall accuracy of 0.75 when compared with geophotos and correlated positively with soil samples sand fraction. The Pucaras evaluated with the historical climate scenario obtained erosion rates ranging between 0 and 20 ton*ha-1*yr-1. These rates also varied from -15.7% to 39.1% for four future climate change models that reported extreme conditions. In addition, after identifying and overflying six Pucaras that showed the highest erosion rates in the future climate models, we mapped their gully-prone areas that represented between 0.9% and 3.2% of their analyzed areas. The proposed methodology allowed us to observe how the design of the Pucaras and their concentric terraces have managed to reduce gully erosion, but also to notice the pressures they suffer due to their susceptibility to erosion, anthropic pressures and climate change. To address this, we suggest management strategies to guide the protection of this cultural and built heritage landscapes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fabián Santos
- Centro de Investigación para el Territorio y el Hábitat Sostenible (CITEHS), Universidad Tecnológica Indoamérica, Machala y Sabanilla, Quito, Ecuador
- * E-mail:
| | - Nora Calle
- Departamento de Ciencias de la Computación, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas (ESPE), Sangolquí, Ecuador
| | - Santiago Bonilla
- Centro de Investigación para el Territorio y el Hábitat Sostenible (CITEHS), Universidad Tecnológica Indoamérica, Machala y Sabanilla, Quito, Ecuador
| | - Fausto Sarmiento
- Geography Department, Neotropical Montology Collaboratory, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Mathew Herrnegger
- Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment, Institute of Hydrology and Water Management, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria
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