Modeling Exposure to Heat Stress with a Simple Urban Model

Review of User-Friendly Models to Improve the Urban Micro-Climate

Various micro-scale models for comparing alternative design concepts have been developed in recent decades. The objective of this study is to provide an overview of current user-friendly micro-climate models. In the results, a vast majority of models identified were excluded from the review because the models were not micro-scale, lacking a user-interface, or were not available. In total, eight models met the seven-point inclusion criteria. These models were ADMS Temperature and Humidity model, advanced SkyHelios model, ANSYS FLUENT, ENVI-met, RayMan, SOLWEIG, TownScope, and UMEP. These models differ in their complexity and their widespread use in the scientific community, ranging from very few to thousands of citations. Most of these models simulate air temperature, global radiation, and mean radiant temperature, which helps to evaluate outdoor thermal comfort in cities. All of these models offer a linkage to CAD or GIS software and user support systems at various levels, which facilitates a smooth integration to planning and design. We detected that all models have been evaluated against observations. A wider model comparison, however, has only been performed for fewer models. With this review, we aim to support the finding of a reliable tool, which is fit for the specific purpose.

Integrating Modes of Transport in a Dynamic Modelling Approach to Evaluate Population Exposure to Ambient NO2 and PM2.5 Pollution in Urban Areas

To evaluate the effectiveness of alternative policies and measures to reduce air pollution effects on urban citizen's health, population exposure assessments are needed. Due to road traffic emissions being a major source of emissions and exposure in European cities, it is necessary to account for differentiated transport environments in population dynamics for exposure studies. In this study, we applied a modelling system to evaluate population exposure in the urban area of Hamburg in 2016. The modeling system consists of an urban-scale chemistry transport model to account for ambient air pollutant concentrations and a dynamic time-microenvironment-activity (TMA) approach, which accounts for population dynamics in different environments as well as for infiltration of outdoor to indoor air pollution. We integrated different modes of transport in the TMA approach to improve population exposure assessments in transport environments. The newly developed approach reports 12% more total exposure to NO2 and 19% more to PM2.5 compared with exposure estimates based on residential addresses. During the time people spend in different transport environments, the in-car environment contributes with 40% and 33% to the annual sum of exposure to NO2 and PM2.5, in the walking environment with 26% and 30%, in the cycling environment with 15% and 17% and other environments (buses, subway, suburban, and regional trains) with less than 10% respectively. The relative contribution of road traffic emissions to population exposure is highest in the in-car environment (57% for NO2 and 15% for PM2.5). Results for population-weighted exposure revealed exposure to PM2.5 concentrations above the WHO AQG limit value in the cycling environment. Uncertainties for the exposure contributions arising from emissions and infiltration from outdoor to indoor pollutant concentrations range from -12% to +7% for NO2 and PM2.5. The developed "dynamic transport approach" is integrated in a computationally efficient exposure model, which is generally applicable in European urban areas. The presented methodology is promoted for use in urban mobility planning, e.g., to investigate on policy-driven changes in modal split and their combined effect on emissions, population activity and population exposure.

Diurnal and Seasonal Variations in the Effect of Urban Environmental Factors on Air Temperature: A Consecutive Regression Analysis Approach

This study investigates the diurnal and seasonal variations in the effect of environmental features on air temperature in Seoul, Korea. We expect that this study will lead to the identification of factors that can be applied for urban heat island mitigation strategies in summer without leading to an unintended result in winter. As our dependent variable, we employed the smoothed 31-day moving average of air temperatures, where we controlled the seasonal variation by normalizing the values observed from 247 automatic weather stations (AWS) from 2015 to 2016. Subsequently, we conducted consecutive log–log regression analyses of each day to examine patterns of change in regression coefficients and the significance of each independent variable. For independent variables, we applied built environment features including albedo, land-use, average building floors, the sky view factor, and green and water areas. This study provides analytical results regarding the relationship between environmental factors and air temperature. This study also addresses imperative issues for planners, especially regarding albedo, wind path, building geometry, and land use types. Finally, this study gives useful insights for managing the diurnal and seasonal variations of urban thermal environment in the mega-city.

Evaluation of thermal indices for their applicability in obstacle-resolving meteorology models

A thermally comfortable design of outdoor spaces favors social interaction and outdoor activities and thus contributes to the overall well-being of urban dwellers. To assess such a design, obstacle-resolving models (ORM) combined with thermal indices may be used. This paper reviews existing thermal indices to identify those suitable for thermal comfort assessment with ORMs. For the identification, 11 criteria and six index features are derived from literature analysis focusing on the characteristics of human environmental heat exchange, of outdoor urban environments, and of ORMs. An air temperature weighted world population distribution is calculated to derive the minimal air temperature range; a thermal index should cover to be applicable to 95% of the world population. The criteria are applied to 165 thermal indices by reviewing their original publications. Results show that only four thermal indices are suitable to be applied globally in their current form to various outdoor urban environments and also fulfill the requirements of ORMs. The evaluation of the index features shows that they differ with respect to the comprehensiveness of the thermophysiological model, the assessed human response, the treatment of clothing and activity, and the computational costs. Furthermore, they differ in their total application frequency in past ORM studies and in their application frequency for different climatic zones, as a systematic literature analysis of thermal comfort studies employing ORMs showed. By depicting the differences of the thermal indices, this paper provides guidance to select an appropriate thermal index for thermal comfort studies with ORMs.

An Agent-Based Modeling Framework for Simulating Human Exposure to Environmental Stresses in Urban Areas

Several approaches have been used to assess potential human exposure to environmental stresses and achieve optimal results under various conditions, such as for example, for different scales, groups of people, or points in time. A thorough literature review in this paper identifies the research gap regarding modeling approaches for assessing human exposure to environment stressors, and it indicates that microsimulation tools are becoming increasingly important in human exposure assessments of urban environments, in which each person is simulated individually and continuously. The paper further describes an agent-based model (ABM) framework that can dynamically simulate human exposure levels, along with their daily activities, in urban areas that are characterized by environmental stresses such as air pollution and heat stress. Within the framework, decision-making processes can be included for each individual based on rule-based behavior in order to achieve goals under changing environmental conditions. The ideas described in this paper are implemented in a free and open source NetLogo platform. A basic modeling scenario of the ABM framework in Hamburg, Germany, demonstrates its utility in various urban environments and individual activity patterns, as well as its portability to other models, programs, and frameworks. The prototype model can potentially be extended to support environmental incidence management through exploring the daily routines of different groups of citizens, and comparing the effectiveness of different strategies. Further research is needed to fully develop an operational version of the model.