The Effect of Sample Bias and Experimental Artefacts on the Statistical Phylogenetic Analysis of Picornaviruses

Optimizing ancestral trait reconstruction of large HIV Subtype C datasets through multiple-trait subsampling

Large datasets along with sampling bias represent a challenge for phylodynamic reconstructions, particularly when the study data are obtained from various heterogeneous sources and/or through convenience sampling. In this study, we evaluate the presence of unbalanced sampled distribution by collection date, location, and risk group of human immunodeficiency virus Type 1 Subtype C using a comprehensive subsampling strategy and assess their impact on the reconstruction of the viral spatial and risk group dynamics using phylogenetic comparative methods. Our study shows that a most suitable dataset for ancestral trait reconstruction can be obtained through subsampling by all available traits, particularly using multigene datasets. We also demonstrate that sampling bias is inflated when considerable information for a given trait is unavailable or of poor quality, as we observed for the trait risk group. In conclusion, we suggest that, even if traits are not well recorded, including them deliberately optimizes the representativeness of the original dataset rather than completely excluding them. Therefore, we advise the inclusion of as many traits as possible with the aid of subsampling approaches in order to optimize the dataset for phylodynamic analysis while reducing the computational burden. This will benefit research communities investigating the evolutionary and spatio-temporal patterns of infectious diseases.

Genomic epidemiology of SARS- CoV-2 Omicron variants in the Republic of Korea

The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a global pandemic since 2019. Variants of concern (VOCs) declared by the World Health Organization require continuous monitoring because of their possible changes in transmissibility, virulence, and antigenicity. The Omicron variant, a VOC, has become the dominant variant worldwide since November 2021. In the Republic of Korea (South Korea), the number of confirmed cases increased rapidly after the detection of Omicron VOC on November 24, 2021. In this study, we estimated the underlying epidemiological processes of Omicron VOC in South Korea using time-scaled phylodynamic analysis. Three distinct phylogenetic subgroups (Kor-O1, Kor-O2, and Kor-O3) were detected in South Korea. The Kor-O1 subgroup circulated in the Daegu region, whereas Kor-O2 and Kor-O3 circulated in Incheon and Jeollanam-do, respectively. The viral population size and case number of the Kor-O1 subgroup increased more rapidly than those of the other subgroups, indicating the rapid spread of the virus. The results indicated the multiple introductions of Omicron sub-lineages into South Korea and their subsequent co-circulation. The evolution and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 should be continuously monitored, and control strategies need to be improved to control the multiple variants.

Origins and Evolution of Seasonal Human Coronaviruses

Four seasonal human coronaviruses (sHCoVs) are endemic globally (229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1), accounting for 5-30% of human respiratory infections. However, the epidemiology and evolution of these CoVs remain understudied due to their association with mild symptomatology. Using a multigene and complete genome analysis approach, we find the evolutionary histories of sHCoVs to be highly complex, owing to frequent recombination of CoVs including within and between sHCoVs, and uncertain, due to the under sampling of non-human viruses. The recombination rate was highest for 229E and OC43 whereas substitutions per recombination event were highest in NL63 and HKU1. Depending on the gene studied, OC43 may have ungulate, canine, or rabbit CoV ancestors. 229E may have origins in a bat, camel, or an unsampled intermediate host. HKU1 had the earliest common ancestor (1809-1899) but fell into two distinct clades (genotypes A and B), possibly representing two independent transmission events from murine-origin CoVs that appear to be a single introduction due to large gaps in the sampling of CoVs in animals. In fact, genotype B was genetically more diverse than all the other sHCoVs. Finally, we found shared amino acid substitutions in multiple proteins along the non-human to sHCoV host-jump branches. The complex evolution of CoVs and their frequent host switches could benefit from continued surveillance of CoVs across non-human hosts.

Evaluating the Impact of Anthropogenic Factors on the Dissemination of Contemporary Cosmopolitan, Arctic, and Arctic-like Rabies Viruses

Rabies is a globally prevalent viral zoonosis that causes 59,000 deaths per year and has important economic consequences. Most virus spread is associated with the migration of its primary hosts. Anthropogenic dissemination, mainly via the transportation of rabid dogs, shaped virus ecology a few hundred years ago and is responsible for several current outbreaks. A systematic analysis of aberrant long-distance events in the steppe and Arctic-like groups of rabies virus was performed using statistical (Bayesian) phylogeography and plots of genetic vs. geographic distances. The two approaches produced similar results but had some significant differences and complemented each other. No phylogeographic analysis could be performed for the Arctic group because polar foxes transfer the virus across the whole circumpolar region at high velocity, and there was no correlation between genetic and geographic distances in this virus group. In the Arctic-like group and the steppe subgroup of the cosmopolitan group, a significant number of known sequences (15-20%) was associated with rapid long-distance transfers, which mainly occurred within Eurasia. Some of these events have been described previously, while others have not been documented. Most of the recent long-distance transfers apparently did not result in establishing the introduced virus, but a few had important implications for the phylogeographic history of rabies. Thus, human-mediated long-distance transmission of the rabies virus remains a significant threat that needs to be addressed.

Advances, challenges and opportunities of phylogenetic and social network analysis using COVID-19 data

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has attracted research interests from all fields. Phylogenetic and social network analyses based on connectivity between either COVID-19 patients or geographic regions and similarity between syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequences provide unique angles to answer public health and pharmaco-biological questions such as relationships between various SARS-CoV-2 mutants, the transmission pathways in a community and the effectiveness of prevention policies. This paper serves as a systematic review of current phylogenetic and social network analyses with applications in COVID-19 research. Challenges in current phylogenetic network analysis on SARS-CoV-2 such as unreliable inferences, sampling bias and batch effects are discussed as well as potential solutions. Social network analysis combined with epidemiology models helps to identify key transmission characteristics and measure the effectiveness of prevention and control strategies. Finally, future new directions of network analysis motivated by COVID-19 data are summarized.

Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus: An Emerging Ancient Zoonosis?

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is one of the most important viral zoonosis transmitted by the bite of infected ticks. In this study, all tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) E gene sequences available in GenBank as of June 2019 with known date of isolation (n = 551) were analyzed. Simulation studies showed that a sample bias could significantly affect earlier studies, because small TBEV datasets (n = 50) produced non-overlapping intervals for evolutionary rate estimates. An apparent lack of a temporal signal in TBEV, in general, was found, precluding molecular clock analysis of all TBEV subtypes in one dataset. Within all subtypes and most of the smaller groups in these subtypes, there was evidence of many medium- and long-distance virus transfers. These multiple random events may play a key role in the virus spreading. For some groups, virus diversity within one territory was similar to diversity over the whole geographic range. This is best exemplified by the virus diversity observed in Switzerland or Czech Republic. These two countries yielded most of the known European subtype Eu3 subgroup sequences, and the diversity of viruses found within each of these small countries is comparable to that of the whole Eu3 subgroup, which is prevalent all over Central and Eastern Europe. Most of the deep tree nodes within all three established TBEV subtypes dated less than 300 years back. This could be explained by the recent emergence of most of the known TBEV diversity. Results of bioinformatics analysis presented here, together with multiple field findings, suggest that TBEV may be regarded as an emerging disease.

Using Statistical Phylogenetics for Investigation of Enterovirus 71 Genotype A Reintroduction into Circulation

Neurovirulent enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) caused a massive epidemic in China in 2008-2011. While subgenotype C4 was the major causative agent, a few isolates were almost identical to the prototype EV-A71 strain and belonged to genotype A. This variant was allegedly extinct since 1970, and its identification in this epidemic suggests reintroduction of the archive virus. Regression analysis of genetic distances (TempEst software) was of moderate utility due to the low resolution of classical phylogenetic methods. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis (BEAST software) suggested artificial introduction event based on highly aberrant phylogenetic tree branch rates that differed by over three standard deviations from the mean substitution rate for EV71. Manual nucleotide-level analysis was used to further explore the virus spread pattern after introduction into circulation. Upon reintroduction, the virus accumulated up to seven substitutions in VP1, most of them non-synonymous and located within the capsid's canyon or at its rims, compatible with readaptation of a lab strain to natural circulation.