Molecular Epidemiology of the HIV-1 Subtype B Sub-Epidemic in Bulgaria

Transmitted HIV Drug Resistance in Bulgaria Occurs in Clusters of Individuals from Different Transmission Groups and Various Subtypes (2012-2020)

Transmitted HIV drug resistance in Bulgaria was first reported in 2015 using data from 1988-2011. We determined the prevalence of surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) and HIV-1 genetic diversity in Bulgaria during 2012-2020 using polymerase sequences from 1053 of 2010 (52.4%) antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive individuals. Sequences were analyzed for DRM using the WHO HIV SDRM list implemented in the calculated population resistance tool at Stanford University. Genetic diversity was inferred using automated subtyping tools and phylogenetics. Cluster detection and characterization was performed using MicrobeTrace. The overall rate of SDRMs was 5.7% (60/1053), with 2.2% having resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), 1.8% to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), 2.1% to protease inhibitors (PIs), and 0.4% with dual-class SDRMs. We found high HIV-1 diversity, with the majority being subtype B (60.4%), followed by F1 (6.9%), CRF02_AG (5.2%), A1 (3.7%), CRF12_BF (0.8%), and other subtypes and recombinant forms (23%). Most (34/60, 56.7%) of the SDRMs were present in transmission clusters of different subtypes composed mostly of male-to-male sexual contact (MMSC), including a 14-member cluster of subtype B sequences from 12 MMSC and two males reporting heterosexual contact; 13 had the L90M PI mutation and one had the T215S NRTI SDRM. We found a low SDRM prevalence amid high HIV-1 diversity among ART-naive patients in Bulgaria during 2012-2020. The majority of SDRMs were found in transmission clusters containing MMSC, indicative of onward spread of SDRM in drug-naive individuals. Our study provides valuable information on the transmission dynamics of HIV drug resistance in the context of high genetic diversity in Bulgaria, for the development of enhanced prevention strategies to end the epidemic.

HIV-1 subtype B spread through cross-border clusters in the Balkans: a molecular analysis in view of incidence trends

OBJECTIVES

To analyze phylogenetic relations and assess the role of cross-border clusters in the spread of HIV-1 subtype B across the Balkans, given the general trends of new HIV diagnoses in seven Balkan countries.

DESIGN

Retrospective phylogenetic and trend analysis.

METHODS

In-depth phylogenetic, phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis performed on 2415 HIV-1 subtype B sequences from 1999 to 2019 using maximal likelihood and Bayesian methods. The joinpoint regression analysis of new HIV diagnoses by country and modes of transmission using 2004-2019 ECDC data.

RESULTS

Ninety-three HIV-1 Subtype B transmission clusters (68% of studied sequences) were detected of which four cross-border clusters (11% of studied sequences). Phylodynamic analysis showed activity of cross-border clusters up until the mid-2000s, with a subsequent stationary growth phase. Phylogeography analyses revealed reciprocal spread patterns between Serbia, Slovenia and Montenegro and several introductions to Romania from these countries and Croatia. The joinpoint analysis revealed a reduction in new HIV diagnoses in Romania, Greece and Slovenia, whereas an increase in Serbia, Bulgaria, Croatia and Montenegro, predominantly among MSM.

CONCLUSION

Differing trends of new HIV diagnoses in the Balkans mirror differences in preventive policies implemented in participating countries. Regional spread of HIV within the countries of former Yugoslavia has continued to play an important role even after country break-up, whereas the spread of subtype B through multiple introductions to Romania suggested the changing pattern of travel and migration linked to European integration of Balkan countries in the early 2000s.

Molecular Epidemiological Analysis of the Origin and Transmission Dynamics of the HIV-1 CRF01_AE Sub-Epidemic in Bulgaria

HIV-1 subtype CRF01_AE is the second most predominant strain in Bulgaria, yet little is known about the molecular epidemiology of its origin and transmissibility. We used a phylodynamics approach to better understand this sub-epidemic by analyzing 270 HIV-1 polymerase (pol) sequences collected from persons diagnosed with HIV/AIDS between 1995 and 2019. Using network analyses at a 1.5% genetic distance threshold (d), we found a large 154-member outbreak cluster composed mostly of persons who inject drugs (PWID) that were predominantly men. At d = 0.5%, which was used to identify more recent transmission, the large cluster dissociated into three clusters of 18, 12, and 7 members, respectively, five dyads, and 107 singletons. Phylogenetic analysis of the Bulgarian sequences with publicly available global sequences showed that CRF01_AE likely originated from multiple Asian countries, with Vietnam as the likely source of the outbreak cluster between 1988 and 1990. Our findings indicate that CRF01_AE was introduced into Bulgaria multiple times since 1988, and infections then rapidly spread among PWID locally with bridging to other risk groups and countries. CRF01_AE continues to spread in Bulgaria as evidenced by the more recent large clusters identified at d = 0.5%, highlighting the importance of public health prevention efforts in the PWID communities.