The Epidemiological Signature of Pathogen Populations That Vary in the Relationship between Free-Living Parasite Survival and Virulence

Climate-dependent effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 mitigation

Environmental factors have a significant impact on the transmission of infectious diseases. Existing results show that the novel coronavirus can persist outside the host. We propose a susceptible-exposed-presymptomatic-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered-susceptible (SEPIARS) model with a vaccination compartment and indirect incidence to explore the effect of environmental conditions, temperature and humidity, on the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Using climate data and daily confirmed cases data in two Canadian cities with different atmospheric conditions, we evaluate the mortality rates of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and further estimate the transmission rates by the inverse method, respectively. The numerical results show that high temperature or humidity can be helpful in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 during the warm summer months. Our findings verify that nonpharmaceutical interventions are less effective if the virus can persist for a long time on surfaces. Based on climate data, we can forecast the transmission rate and the infection cases up to four weeks in the future by a generalized boosting machine learning model.

Out of the 'host' box: extreme off-host conditions alter the infectivity and virulence of a parasitic bacterium

Disease agents play an important role in the ecology and life history of wild and cultivated populations and communities. While most studies focus on the adaptation of parasites to their hosts, the adaptation of free-living parasite stages to their external (off-host) environment may tell us a lot about the factors that shape the distribution of parasites. Pasteuria ramosa is an endoparasitic bacterium of the water flea Daphnia with a wide geographical distribution. Its transmission stages rest outside of the host and thus experience varying environmental regimes. We examined the life history of P. ramosa populations from four environmental conditions (i.e. groups of habitats): the factorial combinations of summer-dry water bodies or not, and winter-freeze water bodies or not. Our goal was to examine how the combination of winter temperature and summer dryness affects the parasite's ability to attach to its host and to infect it. We subjected samples of the four groups of habitats to temperatures of 20, 33, 46 and 60°C in dry and wet conditions, and exposed a susceptible clone of Daphnia magna to the treated spores. We found that spores which had undergone desiccation endured higher temperatures better than spores kept wet, both regarding attachment and subsequent infection. Furthermore, spores treated with heightened temperatures were much less infective and virulent. Even under high temperatures (60°C), exposed spores from all populations were able to attach to the host cuticle, albeit they were unable to establish infection. Our work highlights the sensitivity of a host-free resting stage of a bacterial parasite to the external environment. Long heatwaves and harsh summers, which are becoming more frequent owing to recent climate changes, may therefore pose a problem for parasite survival. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

SARS-CoV-2 on Ocular Surfaces in a Cohort of Patients With COVID-19 From the Lombardy Region, Italy

Importance

Since February 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly all over the world, with an epidemiological cluster in Lombardy, Italy. The viral communicability may be mediated by various body fluids, but insufficient information is available on the presence of the virus in human tears.

Objectives

To investigate the rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in tears collected from patients with COVID-19 by means of real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) assay and to assess the association of virus presence with concomitant clinical conditions.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Cross-sectional study conducted between April 9 and May 5, 2020. The setting was intensive care units at Azienda Socio-Sanitaria Territoriale (ASST) Sette-Laghi Hospital, University of Insubria, in Varese, Lombardy, Italy. A conjunctival swab was performed in 91 patients hospitalized for COVID-19, which was clinically diagnosed by rRT-PCR assay on nasopharyngeal swabs and by radiological imaging. Conjunctival swabs from 17 additional healthy volunteer participants with no symptoms of COVID-19 were examined to evaluate the availability and applicability of the conjunctival swab test.

Exposure

SARS-CoV-2 detection by means of rRT-PCR assay performed on the collected samples obtained by conjunctival swabs.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Conjunctival swab and nasopharyngeal swab results are reported, as well as demographic and clinical data.

Results

A total of 108 participants (mean [SD] age, 58.7 [14.2] years; 55 female and 53 male) were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using rRT-PCR assay, including 91 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and 17 were healthy volunteers. SARS-CoV-2 was found on the ocular surface in 52 of 91 patients with COVID-19 (57.1%; 95% CI, 46.3%-67.5%), with a wide variability in the mean viral load from both eyes. Among a subset of 41 patients, concordance of 63.0% (95% CI, 41.0%-81.0%) was found between positive conjunctival and nasopharyngeal swab test results when performed within 2 days of each other. In 17 of these patients, nasopharyngeal swab results were negative for SARS-CoV-2. In 10 of these 17 patients, conjunctival swab results were positive for the virus.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was found on the ocular surface in a large part of this cohort of patients with COVID-19, although the infectivity of this material could not be determined. Because patients may have positive test results with a conjunctival swab and negative results with a nasopharyngeal swab, use of the slightly invasive conjunctival swab may be considered as a supplementary diagnostic test.

The roles of environmental variation and parasite survival in virulence-transmission relationships

Disease outbreaks are a consequence of interactions among the three components of a host-parasite system: the infectious agent, the host and the environment. While virulence and transmission are widely investigated, most studies of parasite life-history trade-offs are conducted with theoretical models or tractable experimental systems where transmission is standardized and the environment controlled. Yet, biotic and abiotic environmental factors can strongly affect disease dynamics, and ultimately, host-parasite coevolution. Here, we review research on how environmental context alters virulence-transmission relationships, focusing on the off-host portion of the parasite life cycle, and how variation in parasite survival affects the evolution of virulence and transmission. We review three inter-related 'approaches' that have dominated the study of the evolution of virulence and transmission for different host-parasite systems: (i) evolutionary trade-off theory, (ii) parasite local adaptation and (iii) parasite phylodynamics. These approaches consider the role of the environment in virulence and transmission evolution from different angles, which entail different advantages and potential biases. We suggest improvements to how to investigate virulence-transmission relationships, through conceptual and methodological developments and taking environmental context into consideration. By combining developments in life-history evolution, phylogenetics, adaptive dynamics and comparative genomics, we can improve our understanding of virulence-transmission relationships across a diversity of host-parasite systems that have eluded experimental study of parasite life history.

Variation in microparasite free-living survival and indirect transmission can modulate the intensity of emerging outbreaks

Variation in free-living microparasite survival can have a meaningful impact on the ecological dynamics of established and emerging infectious diseases. Nevertheless, resolving the importance of indirect and environmental transmission in the ecology of epidemics remains a persistent challenge. It requires accurately measuring the free-living survival of pathogens across reservoirs of various kinds and quantifying the extent to which interaction between hosts and reservoirs generates new infections. These questions are especially salient for emerging pathogens, where sparse and noisy data can obfuscate the relative contribution of different infection routes. In this study, we develop a mechanistic, mathematical model that permits both direct (host-to-host) and indirect (environmental) transmission and then fit this model to empirical data from 17 countries affected by an emerging virus (SARS-CoV-2). From an ecological perspective, our model highlights the potential for environmental transmission to drive complex, nonlinear dynamics during infectious disease outbreaks. Summarizing, we propose that fitting alternative models with indirect transmission to real outbreak data from SARS-CoV-2 can be useful, as it highlights that indirect mechanisms may play an underappreciated role in the dynamics of infectious diseases, with implications for public health.