Multivariate Hybrid Modelling of Future Wave-Storms at the Northwestern Black Sea

An Experimental Assessment of Extreme Wave Evaluation by Integrating Model and Wave Buoy Data

Calculating the significant wave height (SWH) in a given location as a function of the return time is an essential tool of coastal and ocean engineering; such a calculation can be carried out by making use of the now widely available weather and wave model chains, which often lead to underestimating the results, or by means of in situ experimental data (mostly, wave buoys), which are only available in a limited number of sites. A procedure is hereby tested whereby the curves of extreme SWH as a function of the return time deriving from model data are integrated with the similar curves computed from buoy data. A considerable improvement in accuracy is gained by making use of this integrated procedure in all locations where buoy data series are not available or are not long enough for a correct estimation. A useful and general design tool has therefore been provided to derive the extreme value SWH for any point in a given area.

Temporal Variation of the Wave Energy Flux in Hotspot Areas of the Black Sea

This paper aims to examine the temporal variation of wave energy flux in the hotspot areas of the Black Sea. For this purpose, a 31-year long-term wave dataset produced by using a three-layered nested modelling system was used. Temporal variations of wave energy were determined at hourly, monthly, seasonal, and yearly basis at seventeen stations. Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that the stations have very low fluctuations in mean wave power during the day. Mean wave power in the summer months shows a low difference between the stations, but in the winter months, there is a higher difference in wave power between the stations. This difference is more at the stations in the southwestern part of the Black Sea and much lower in the eastern Black Sea stations around Sinop, being in the middle of the southern coast of the Black Sea. In addition, it is concluded that mean wave energy flux presents a decreasing trend at all stations, but maximum wave power offers an increasing trend at most of the stations.

Effect of Extreme Climate on Topology of Railway Prestressed Concrete Sleepers

Railway networks are exposed to various environmental conditions. It is thus critical that infrastructure components can tolerate such effects by design. Railway sleepers are a critical safety component in ballasted track systems. Prestressed concrete is currently the most common material for railway sleepers due to its superior advantages in structural performance, low maintenance, sustainability, and construction. In practice, many prestressed concrete sleepers are installed in harsh environments that are subject to various changes in climate. Environmental conditions are, therefore, one of the most critical phenomena affecting the time-dependent behaviour of prestressed concrete sleepers. Hence, the impact of climate changes on the serviceability of railway infrastructure needs to be thoroughly investigated. Temperature and relative humidity are crucial aspects that have not been sufficiently studied so far with reference to prestressed concrete sleepers embedded in track systems. This study aims to investigate the effects of extreme climatic conditions on the performance and time-dependent behaviour of prestressed concrete sleepers using contemporary design approaches. The issue concerning the effects of climate uncertainties on creep and shrinkage is rigorously investigated on the basis of both environmental temperature and relative humidity. The outcome indicates that environmental conditions play a vital role in the time-dependent behaviour of prestressed concrete sleepers. The insights will be essential for assessing the long-term serviceability of prestressed concrete sleepers that have been installed in railway lines and are subjected to extreme environmental conditions.

Coastal Flooding Hazard Due to Overflow Using a Level II Method: Application to the Venetian Littoral

In recent years, marine flooding and its impacts have become a question of growing interest, since coastal areas are the most heavily populated and developed land zones in the world. This paper presents a rapid tool for mapping at regional scale the hazard associated with coastal flooding due to overflow. The tool merges a recently developed numerical model that solves a simplified form of the Shallow-Water Equations and is suited for Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) acceleration, with a Level II reliability method that allows producing hazard maps of inland flooding propagation. The procedure was applied to two stretches of the Venetian littoral, i.e., Valle Vecchia and Caorle, located in the northern Adriatic Sea. The application includes the site descriptions and the resulting hazard maps that show the probability of failure in each point of the coast for a given inland inundation level.

Estimation of the Near Future Wind Power Potential in the Black Sea

The main objective of the present study is to quantify the recent past and explore the near future wind power potential in the Black Sea basin, evaluating the possible changes. Furthermore, an analysis of the wind climate in the target area was also performed. The wind resources have been assessed using the wind fields provided by various databases. Thus, the wind power potential from the recent past was assessed based two different sources covering each one the 30-year period (1981–2010). The first source is the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), while the second source represents the hindcast wind fields simulated by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) and provided by EURO-CORDEX databases. The estimation of the near future wind power potential was made based on wind fields simulated by the same RCM under future climate projections, considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and they cover also a 30-year time interval (2021–2050). Information in various reference points were analyzed in detail. Several conclusions resulted from the present work. Thus, as regards the mean wind power potential in winter season, in 51% of the locations a significant increase is projected in the near future (both scenarios). Besides providing a detailed description of the wind conditions from the recent past over the Black Sea basin considering two major sources, the novelty of the present work consists in the fact that it gives an estimation of the expected wind climate in the target area for the near future period and at the same time an evaluation of the climate change impacts on the wind speed and wind power potential.

A Comparative Analysis of the Wind and Wave Climate in the Black Sea Along the Shipping Routes

The aim of the present work is to assess the wind and wave climate in the Black Sea while considering various data sources. A special attention is given to the areas with higher navigation traffic. Thus, the results are analyzed for the sites located close to the main harbors and also along the major trading routes. The wind conditions were evaluated considering two different data sets, the reanalysis data provided by NCEP-CFSR (U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) and the hindcast results given by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) that were retrieved from EURO-CORDEX (European Domain-Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). For the waves, there were considered the results coming from simulations with the SWAN (Simulating Wave Nearshore) model, forced with the above-mentioned two different wind fields. Based on these results, it can be mentioned that the offshore sites seem to show the best correlation between the two datasets for both wind and waves. As regards the nearshore sites, there is a good agreement between the average values of the wind data that are provided by the different datasets, except for the points located in the southern part of the Black Sea. The same trends noticed for the average values remain also valid for the extreme values. Finally, it can be concluded that the results obtained in this study are useful for the evaluation of the wind and wave climate in the Black Sea. Also, they give a more comprehensive picture on how well the wind field provided by the Regional Climate Model, and the wave model forced with this wind, can represent the features of a complex marine environment as the Black Sea is.